San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees Weekend Series Predictions with Odds and Analysis

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/11/2025

San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees series predictions Camilo Doval

We’ve got the first Weekend Series Preview today as the MLB season is entering its third weekend. There are a lot of enticing matchups heading into this weekend, as the Los Angeles Angels look to push the Houston Astros further down the AL West standings, the Chicago Cubs will try their hand against the Los Angeles Dodgers as they hope to avoid another sweep by the league’s best team, and the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners will give us a potential early season preview of perhaps the two best teams in their division. However, there is not a more enticing series matchup than the one between the San Francisco Giants and the New York Yankees. Let’s dive in.

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Where They Stand

Heading into the weekend, the Giants have kept pace with the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they are just a half game out of first place. Their +18-run differential is first in the National League and second only to their weekend series opponent, the New York Yankees. The biggest factor that has led to an incredible start to the campaign is their pitching. They rank second in the league with a 2.78 ERA, and they have allowed just 39 walks on the season. Camilo Doval has had a bad start to the year (5.06 ERA in 5.1 innings), but the bullpen has benefited from the emergence of Ryan Walker (1.50 ERA, 3 saves over six innings) and the fact that they have received 25.2 shutout innings to start the season from Hayden Birdsong, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, and Randy Rodriguez. As for the offense, the Giants have averaged 4.75 runs per game thus far, and that is without the help of a struggling Willy Adames.

The Yankees have not enjoyed the same dominant start from their pitching staff. With the absence of Gerrit Cole, Max Fried has stepped up and recorded a 1.56 ERA through his first three starts. However, Carlos Rodon, Carlos Carrasco, Will Warren, and Marcus Stroman have combined for an abysmal 6.54 ERA. Despite their atrocious performance, the Yankees have posted a 7-5 record thus far and they sit atop a struggling AL East division. Closer Devin Williams joins his starters in their struggles as he has posted a 12.00 ERA through his first three innings. The lineup has been surprisingly good to start the season. The Yankees rank second in the league in runs while Aaron Judge continues to be an elite homerun hitter, recording the long-ball every eight at-bats. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .383 and Ben Rice has a 1.085 OPS through his 36 at-bats this season. The rest of the lineup has underperformed to start the season.

Team Betting Notes:

San Francisco Giants:

8-4 ATS, 6-0 ATS on the road
The Giants have hit the over in four of their six road games this season.

New York Yankees:

6-6 ATS this season, 4-2 ATS at home
The Yankees have hit the over in four of their six home games this season.

Player Highlights

San Francisco Giants:

Wilmer Flores has dominated so far this season clubbing five homeruns while tallying 14 RBIs. Flores ranks inside the Top 10 in both categories in the MLB.
Logan Webb will look to record his third quality start in his fourth start of the season on Sunday. Webb has allowed just one homerun in 19 innings this season, while also showing an uncharacteristically high strikeout rate of 9.9 K/9.
Jung Hoo Lee has recorded 24 total bases through 11 games this season and he has only struck out seven times in 45 at bats.

New York Yankees:

Goldschmidt is slashing .383/.431/.511 to start the season and is leading the Yankees in hits.
Judge is tied for the league lead in homeruns while currently leading the league in RBIs and he is second in total bases.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has nine hits on the year with four being homeruns. He also has four stolen bases. Despite his poor .180 average, he is still worth a look for total base props. Additionally, 75% of his homeruns have been against right-handed pitchers and he will see two right-handed starters in this weekend set with the Giants.

Game 1 Preview – Robbie Ray (2-0, 3.18) vs Marcus Stroman (0-0, 7.27)

On paper, the pitching matchups for this weekend’s series do not look good for the Yankees. However, it does help that they have dominated left-handed pitching this season. The Yankees have 14 of their 26 homeruns against southpaws and their 39 RBIs against left handers is the most in the league. Fun fact, Max Fried has had the most success at the plate against Robbie Ray (of current Yankees) as he is 1/1 in his career against Ray. However, since we have a DH, he does not count. Trent Grisham, Chisholm Jr., Goldschmidt, and Cody Bellinger are a combined 3/29 against Ray in their careers. Aaron Judge is the lone Yankees hitter that has success at the plate against Ray. He is 3/8 with three homeruns. If Ray can avoid giving up the longball, the Giants should take the opening match here.

My Pick: Giants, +108 / Over eight runs, -106

Game 2 – Jordan Hicks (1-0, 2.38) vs Will Warren (0-0, 6.00)

Game 3 – Logan Webb (1-0, 1.89) vs Carlos Rodon (1-2, 5.19)

Series Picks: It would be hard to imagine a weekend series sweep in front of your home fans, but the Yankees pitching has been horrible to start the year and it is hard to imagine their lineup continuing to bail them out. Their season numbers are good, but they have a huge outlier in their 20-run performance against Milwaukee earlier this season. If you remove that game, the Yankees are averaging 5.6 runs per game which is an incredible average, but it isn’t much higher than their starters ERA’s. I expect this series to be full of runs, but the Giants should leave the Bronx with a series win thanks to the incredibly favorable pitching matchups.

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Start:	April 12, 2025 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees Weekend Series Predictions with Odds and Analysis

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