Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/17/2025

The Eastern Conference, specifically the Atlantic Division, has given us two incredible territory matchups here in the postseason, with one of them being the Battle for Ontario with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators squaring off. Ottawa has dominated the Toronto Maple Leafs this season, going 3-0 and winning two of them in Toronto’s barn. They finished the regular season series with a +6-goal differential and one shutout. Toronto, however, will head into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the NHL as they have won 12 out of their last 15 games.

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Team Summaries

The Maple Leafs have put together a nice season winning the Atlantic Division and posting a 106-point season with one game remaining. Toronto outlasted both Tampa Bay and Florida in what was one of the more entertaining division races throughout the season. They have won their last four games and have a +36-goal differential which is the third best mark in the Eastern Conference. The Maple Leafs rank seventh in the league in scoring as they are averaging 3.25 GF/G while ranking in the same spot with a 25% PP%. Their goaltending has also been reliable, ranking 10th in the league as they are allowing just 2.79 GA/G on a .912 SV%. The Core Four looked great this season in what could be their final year together. Mitch Marner leads the team with 100 points while William Nylander has 84 and is the team leader in goals with 45. Auston Matthews played in only 66 games this season but has recorded 77 points and 32 goals and John Tavares finished with 74 points and 38 goals in just 74 games. It is an impressive feat when you have three players record 32 or more goals, but it is even more impressive when you realize that Marner (27) and Matthew Knies (29) were right on their heels. As for the goalie room, Joseph Woll played 41 games this season and allowed 2.72 GA/G. Anthony Stolarz may go down as the best backup goalie in history as he allowed just 2.14 GA/G on a .926 SV% across 34 appearances.

Ottawa has found their way back to the postseason for the first time in Brady Tkachuk’s career and the first time since the 2016/17 season. Ottawa has gone 14-5-1 over their last 20 games and has earned the top wild card spot in the conference as a result. They have 95 points with one game remaining on their regular season schedule. It is important to note that the Senators have a losing record on the road this season after a 18-19-4 performance away from home. The offense hasn’t been as productive as it was last season, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring (2.90 GF/G). Their goaltending has improved drastically thanks to the offseason acquisition of Linus Ullmark. The Senators ranks 11th in the league allowing 2.80 GA/G. Tim Stutzle leads the team with 76 points on the season while Tkachuk leads the team with 29 goals. Tkachuk is joined by Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto, and Josh Norris as the five Ottawa players to reach the 20-goal milestone. However, this Senators team lacks star power, and they are not as deep as some of the other playoff teams. They will be heavily reliant on Ullmark who had a down year this season. Ullmark allowed 2.67 GA/G across 43 appearances and finished with a .911 SV% despite some early season struggles.

Goalie Matchup

Woll has been significantly better on home ice this season. He has posted a 12-5 record at home and has allowed just 2.42 GA/G compared to his 2.93 GA/G average on the road. Woll made one start against Ottawa this season and he allowed two goals in a losing effort. Woll has dominated in his limited postseason action. In seven appearances (four starts), he has allowed just 1.78 GA/G while recording a .933 SV%.

Ullmark’s home and road splits are pretty even, though he has a mere 10-7-2 road record this season across 20 starts. He has had the Maple Leafs number all season though as he held the Leafs to just two goals in two games, posting a .960 SV%. This will be his first postseason without the Bruins B on his sweater and he will be looking for better postseason luck as he has allowed 3.59 GA/G across nine postseason starts.

Skaters to Watch

Toronto Maple Leafs:

Nylander has recorded 59.5% of his points on home ice this season, but he has only one point in three games against Ottawa this season.
Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Knies, and Tavares have combined for just three points against Ottawa this season.
Tavares has a +/- rating of -14 across 62 playoff games in his career and he has just 10 points in his last 18 playoff games.

Ottawa Senators:

Stutzle will need to find a way to get the monkey off his back early in this series as he has struggled on the road this season. He has a -7 +/- rating and just 28 points across 41 road games this season.
Bratherson and Jake Sanderson combined for 110 points this season, but only 43 of them came on the road this season.
Claude Giroux is bringing a lot of valuable postseason experience for the Senators bench as he has played in 95 career playoff games, but this is his first time back since the 2021/22 season.

Series Pick

Toronto will break the curse here. The Maple Leafs will find their way back to the second round of the playoffs and possibly beyond this season. The Core Four owes it to the fans to finally deliver a deep playoff run and now they have means to do it with better goaltending and a favorable first round matchup. Toronto needs to jump out to early leads as Ottawa is not a great team at playing catch-up. Game 1 will be electric between these two Ontario squads, but the Maple Leafs should breeze through this first round matchup.

My Pick: to Win: Toronto Maple Leafs -172, Series Total Games: Under 5.5 +146, Series Exact Games: 5 Games +250

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Start:	April 30, 2025 @ 9:30 PM
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Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Series Predictions and Best Bets

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