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NHL Eastern Conference Division Races Odds and Betting Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/3/2025

NHL Eastern Conference division races odds and predictions Alex Ovechkin Washington Capitals

With the return to action after the brief holiday break and teams turning their attention toward the trade deadline and midway point of the season, now is a great time to assess the division races. In the Eastern Conference, the Washington Capitals are atop the Metro Division standings. However, only five points separates them from the third-place Carolina Hurricanes. The Atlantic Division race will be entertaining, as the defending champions are reeling a bit with their weakened depth, but they are still within striking distance. Let’s see where things stand in the Eastern Conference.

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Atlantic Division

As it currently stands, the defending champion Florida Panthers are the favorites to win the Atlantic Division at +140, and they are followed by Toronto (+170) and Tampa Bay (+340). Despite the odds, the Maple Leafs are currently leading the division with 50 points, followed by the Panthers (48), the Bruins (44), the Lightning (42) and the Senators (40).

Toronto has been playing really well this season thanks to their goaltending, but they are missing their star Auston Matthews, who has been out with an injury that could linger all season. Florida has done well this season, but they are definitely missing Anthony Stolarz, who joined Toronto, as the Panthers rank 20th in GA/G. As for Tampa Bay, they currently have a +36-goal differential which is the second-best mark in the Eastern Conference and third best in the NHL, despite being in fourth place in the division. The biggest reason for their current division standing is due to the Lightning going just 4-7 in one-goal games. Tampa Bay is anchored by Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is allowing just 2.39 GA/G this season, which is his best mark since 2021. Tampa Bay also has one of the best top lines in the game with Nikita Kucherov (54 points), Brayden Point (43 points), and Jake Guentzel (37 points) all having 17 or more goals on the season.

Any surges in the second half of the season by Boston (+2100) or Ottawa (+1700) could propel them into the conversation, but Boston currently has a -17-goal differential and Ottawa lacks depth. Toronto holds a tiebreaker against Tampa Bay, but they are just 1-3 against Florida, Boston, and Ottawa this season. Meanwhile, Florida is 4-1 against the likes of Florida, Boston, and Toronto this season, giving them the edge in the tiebreaker scenario. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they are just 1-5 in Atlantic Division play, which is another factor keeping them buried in the standings.

Despite the poor standing in the tiebreaking scenarios, I like the Tampa Bay Lightning at +340 to win the Atlantic Division. They may not make any big moves due to their lack of cap space. However, if they can get more production from their depth, the Lightning could be the best team in the NHL.

Metro Division

Thanks to the ultimate collapse of the New York Rangers, and the complete lack of offense and mediocre mindset of the New York Islanders, the Metro Division is much more top heavy this season, with just three teams with a realistic shot of winning the division.

Currently, the Carolina Hurricanes have the best odds of winning the division at +120, with the Washington Capitals (+175), and the New Jersey Devils (+260) following close behind. There are just five points that separate the first place Capitals and the third place Hurricanes.

For Washington, their offense has greatly improved from last season, as they are averaging 3.63 GF/G, which is the second-best mark in the NHL while also ranking fifth in GA/G, allowing just 2.61 GA/G. Despite playing in only 22 games, Alex Ovechkin leads the team with 18 goals, but the supporting cast has picked it up in his absence. Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael have had strong first halves, with each posting 16 goals and recording 30 or more points.

As for the Devils, Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, and Nico Hischier continue to lead the way offensively, but as mentioned their goaltending has improved their team tremendously. Markstrom has allowed just 2.15 GA/G on a .912 SV%, which leads the Devils to their Top Five ranking in GA/G.

Finally, Carolina came out of the gates strong with a 10-2 start, but they have since gone just 13-11-2. Martin Necas leads the team with 46 points, but 37 of those came in October and November, and he has just nine points in his last 16 games. The offensive depth is there for the Hurricanes as well, but the real concern is their goaltending depth. Heading into the season, their goalie tandem of Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen was going to be a top duo in the league, but Andersen continues to have injury issues, and the three goalies now backing up Kochetkov are not ideal. Spencer Martin, Dustin Tokarski, and Yaniv Perets have combined to allow 4.52 GA/G this season and have a .870 SV%.

Washington has fared well against their divisional opponents, going 9-4, but they are just 3-3 against New Jersey and Carolina and they split the season series against New Jersey (2-2). However, the Devils came away with a +1-goal differential in those games. New Jersey has the edge against Washington. And despite splitting the season series against Carolina, the Hurricanes came away with the +1-goal differential edge. However, New Jersey does not have to play Carolina or Washington again this season, giving them an easier schedule in the back half of the year. The Hurricanes have the tiebreaker against New Jersey but are just 1-1 against Washington so far this season.

This division race is going to be intense down the stretch, but I like the Washington Capitals (+175) to win this race. With the goalie depth issues for Carolina, and the fact that New Jersey has already played three more games, that gives Washington the edge here, especially if they get Ovechkin back to the way he was before his leg injury.

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