NFL Power Rankings Week 18
Welp, another regular season in the books.
Week 18 is here to wrap up another wild, wacky NFL regular season. While we still have over a month of playoff action to savor, this is the last full card of the season.
And as such, I am going to advise you all the same way I do every year heading into the final week of the season.
Tread lightly.
I have seen several gamblers flush a season’s worth of profit down the toilet by overreaching in the final week of the season. Yes, there is some value on this week’s board. There is also plenty of landmines and all kinds of trouble lurking out there.
Week 18 in the NFL is a completely unique beast. There is no reliable information about who is going to play or for how long. Motivation is an essential element of betting on football. But most of the teams suiting up this week are out of the playoff hunt. So it is extremely difficult to predict what, if any, motivation half of the teams in the league will have.
Also, don’t get suckered into betting on teams because they are in “must win” situations, especially if they are going against a team with “nothing to play for”. Good teams don’t get themselves in “must win” situations. Shaky, shady, ready-to-break-your-heart-and-bust-your-bankroll teams put themselves in “must win” situations.
Again: it’s a minefield. And remember that sometimes the best bets are the ones that you don’t make.
Consider yourself warned.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) – I understand that the stupidity of conspiratorial thinking has infected all aspects of American society. It doesn’t make it any less annoying listening to people – who are completely and totally serious – trying to explain to me that Kansas City’s success is somehow the result of unfair collusion by the NFL. Maybe they are just better than everyone. Also, the Chiefs are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 season finales.
2. Detroit Lions (14-2) – Since NFL began seeding the playoffs in 1975, Detroit is one of five teams that has never been a No. 1 seed, along with the Cardinals, Texans, Buccaneers, and Jets. The Lions have beaten the Vikings four straight times and are on a stellar 8-0 ATS run in this series. It is a bit of a red flag, though, that the Lions aren’t laying a full field goal in Sunday’s massive game against the Vikings.
3. Buffalo Bills (13-3) – The Bills are definitely treating this one like a preseason game. But the Patriots have their own motivations to lose this one. This was the first game on the board that I just drew a big fat line through.
4. Minnesota Vikings (14-2) – I think it is a bit of a red flag that the Lions were not even posted as a token three-point favorite in this game. The majority of the action is coming in on the Vikings, who are riding a nine-game winning streak, and it is clear who the better team is right now.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) – Nick Sirianni has proven that he is a guy that is going to do the opposite of what you think he’s going to do and the opposite of what he probably should do. So I think whatever decision he makes about Saquon Barkley and the rest of the starters is going to be definitive and he isn’t going to care about the repercussions.
6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) – The Ravens are massive 18.5-point favorites this week against Cleveland as they try to wrap up the division title. The last time the NFL had an 18-point favorite was Arizona over Houston in 2021, which the Cardinals won 31-5. The last time the NFL had a spread greater than 18 points was in 2020 when Kansas City was a 20-point favorite over the Jets, which the Chiefs won 35-9.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) – I don’t know why the Bengals would be any more motivated than the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh is still in play for the division title. (Cleveland already beat Baltimore once.) The Steelers also don’t want to dump this game and head into the postseason on a four-game losing streak. Pittsburgh has won three straight and four of five in this series, and I expect a full effort from them here.
8. Green Bay Packers (11-5) – The Packers have not lost to the Bears since Dec. 2018, and they have only lost to Chicago three times going back to October of 2010 (26-3 SU). Remember: in 2021 Green Bay was in a similar situation. Mike LaFleur played his starters for one half and then rested his key guys. I wouldn’t be surprised by something similar here.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) – I think the sportsbooks will put Mike Evans’ receiving yards prop at 85.5 this week. Although they would be better off shading over it and forcing bettors to try to play ‘under’. If that number is anywhere near 85.5, I would 1,000 percent hit it as you know Baker Mayfield and the Bucs want Evans to continue his streak of 1,000-yard seasons.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) – I would not expect Jim Harbaugh to take his foot off the gas this week. Harbaugh only knows one way to compete and is working to instill that mentality in this team. The fact that the Chargers will have a chance to pound one of their hated rivals is just another reason to expect Los Angeles to be ready to play this week.
11. Los Angeles Rams (10-6) – The Rams are going to rest their starters. There is no doubt that guys like Matt Stafford, Puka, Cooper Kupp and other key pieces are going to rest. Los Angeles did the same thing last year in Week 18 (although their backups came from behind to beat San Francisco’s backups 21-20) and in 2017 when put in the same situation.
12. Washington Commanders (11-5) – I want to thank Washington for delivering that thrilling 8-Unit NFL Game of the Year winner for me last week. However, I have to say that I came away less impressed with this team leaving the game than I was going into it. This defense is just way too soft to hold up against any of the powerhouse offenses they are going to face in the playoffs this year. They will be a popular underdog pick at around +7.5 in the opening round but I’m not buying into this overachieving group.
13. Denver Broncos (9-7) – I was stunned that Sean Payton didn’t go for two after scoring that miraculous touchdown with eight seconds left at Cincinnati last week. When you are the underdog and/or you are on the road, I always feel like it is better to play for the win in those situations. Especially with a terrible defense like Cincinnati’s on the field and when you have all the momentum.
14. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) – The Geno Smith resurgence was a fun story there for a couple years. But it’s pretty clearly over. You could tell that Seattle’s coaching staff did not trust him at all against a porous Chicago defense, and Smith’s red zone failures are one of the biggest reasons that this team is out of playoff contention. Still, a win Sunday would be a 10-win season for rookie head coach Mike Macdonald, and that’s not nothing.
15. Houston Texans (9-7) – The Texans are quickly becoming a younger version of the Dolphins. Houston beats up on the dregs in the AFC. However, any time they take on a playoff-caliber team, they are overmatched and barely competitive. Don’t be surprised to see the Texans beat up on the hapless Titans this week, but I’m not buying into them as a potential playoff spoiler.
16. Miami Dolphins (8-8) – The Dolphins-Jets series has a history of wild, bizarre results, so I would be careful about throwing my money in the middle of this mess. Miami has won eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams, and they are an exceptional 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two teams.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) – Interesting reverse line movement in the Bengals-Steelers game this week. Around two-thirds of all the action in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game is coming in on the Bengals as the public bites the hook of Cincinnati’s “must win” storyline. However, the spread in this game has actually dropped from an open of 2.5 down to 1.5. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS this season on the road.
18. Arizona Cardinals (7-9) – I can’t believe that it took 16 games for Trey McBride to finally find the end zone. He also owes me. I used my superpower – the Kiss of Life – to get him that touchdown. I went on a long text screed about how insane it was that McBride hadn’t caught a TD pass all season. He got one on the next possession. You’re welcome.
19. San Francisco 49ers (6-10) – The line in the San Francisco-Arizona game this week suggests that oddsmakers are looking for the 49ers to mail it in this week. I can see that. It has been a dreadfully disappointing season. This is a veteran group that is banged up and frustrated. And San Francisco may have wound up and took its final big swing on Monday Night Football in their primetime loss to Detroit. It will be really tough for them to go on the road, on a short week, and find motivation in a game that doesn’t mean anything.
20. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) – Dan Quinn has already announced that he is going to play all his starters down in Dallas this week. This game is the Super Bowl for the Cowboys, though, as they have a chance to spoil Washington’s quest for the No. 6 seed. That’s not a great motivation. But the fact that these two are a pair of biggest rivals in the NFL, and the fact that Mike McCarthy is coaching for a job, is enough to inspire a game effort from this group. Also, all the focus this year has been on whether the Cowboys would keep McCarthy. Now I think the question should be whether or not McCarthy can find a better job elsewhere.
21. Atlanta Falcons (8-8) – Here is the crazy thing about Raheem Morris absolutely butchering the clock and his timeouts late in that Washington game: I actually praised Morris for his masterful navigation of a more difficult situation earlier this year against the Saints! He was great in late game situations against the Saints and Bucs earlier this season. That made his failure to use his timeouts properly on the final drive of last week’s crippling loss at Washington so much more egregious.
22. Indianapolis Colts (7-9) – At this point, Joe Flacco is basically Jameis Winston without the personality and rape allegations. Every time Flacco drops back, I’m expecting him to do something dumb and/or turn the ball over.
23. Chicago Bears (4-12) – Here is what I wrote to my clients in August when releasing a futures play against the Bears (whose win total was 9.5 at the time): “I'm sorry, but the Bears still don't look like a 10-win team. They have a rookie quarterback. And their lack of depth on the offensive and defensive lines will come back to bite them. Matt Eberflus hasn't proven himself as a head coach, either, and they are clearly the third-best team in their stacked division.” Nailed everything…except suggesting them as the third-best team in the division.
24. New York Jets (4-12) – Dear god I hope Aaron Rodgers comes back for another year. Watching him be a complete and total loser – and then blaming his teammates – never gets old. He blew a 3rd-and-1 play early in that Buffalo game that should’ve been a walk-in touchdown, took a safety, and was a turnover machine. But in his mind it was everyone else’s fault. He’s the perfect Jets quarterback.
25. New Orleans Saints (5-11) – I loved the trickeration that New Orleans went with last week against the Raiders, scoring their only touchdown on a flea flicker. I would expect them to play a similar loose style against the Bucs this week, even if it ends with another embarrassing result. The Saints lost the first meeting with the Bucs 51-27 in one of weirdest games of the season, and I’m looking for another bloodbath in Tampa this Sunday.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12) – The Raiders are still fighting. They have covered the spread in three straight games while holding their last three opponents to 15 points or fewer. Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games, and I think that they would love to get some revenge for a 22-10 loss to the Chargers back in September.
27. Carolina Panthers (4-12) – Carolina’s -199-point differential is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin. They have been outscored by 47 points more than the next worst team (Cleveland).
28. Cleveland Browns (3-13) – Dorian Thompson-Robinson is entering Nathan Peterman territory in terms of being one of the worst quarterbacks I’ve ever seen. He has thrown zero touchdowns to six interceptions this season, taking several intentional grounding penalties while posting a rating of 38.6. In his career, DTR is 1-4 as a starter with one touchdown pass and 13 interceptions.
29. New England Patriots (3-13) – A loss here will give the Patriots the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. However, what would an embarrassing home loss do to Jerod Mayo’s job prospects?
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) – At the close of last year, this team was +195 to win the 2024 AFC South title, just behind favorite Houston at +190. As recently as August, this team was just +250 to win the division, yet they will finish the campaign as one of the worst teams in the NFL and one of the league’s biggest disappointments.
31. New York Giants (3-13) – It is funny how the course of NFL history can change due to quirky situations that get lost to history. Ten years from now, we may be talking about Shadeur Sanders and another Pro Bowl or playoff season. But no one will be talking about a random, weird Giants blowout win over the Colts in Week 17 of the 2024 season, even though that win likely cost New York a chance to draft a potentially exciting franchise quarterback.
32. Tennessee Titans (3-13) – This team will go down in history as one of the worst ATS football teams in NFL history. Kudos to all of you that have been just blindly betting against the Titans every week en route to their 2-14 ATS mark this season.
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