NFL Divisional Round Props: Best Bets and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 1/14/2025

NFL Divisional Round props best bets predictions Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

After just one hotly contested game on Wild Card Weekend, NFL fans hope for more exciting matchups in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs this weekend. As a Washington fan, that ending couldn't have been more fun. I think I lost some of the hair that Commanders' kicker Zane Gonzalez kept combing over before his game-winning 31-yard field goal that doinked off the right goal post.

It was definitely an OCD thing, which is understandable. However, I don't think doing it 12 times was part of his batter's boxish routine. Now, Washington has to turn it around on a short week and play the #1 seed Detroit Lions, who, of course, will be fully rested. This is a big ask for Jayden Daniels and company, but I think head coach Dan Quinn will tell his players to go out there and have fun. They're essentially playing with house money at this point, and their future is as bright as that of any team in the league.

I don't think the Houston Texans would blow out the LA Chargers if they played again, but all the other games appeared to be just formalities. We want to share several prop bets with you today for the upcoming Divisional Round playoff games this weekend, including some that seem too good to be true. Let's dive in.

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Detroit Lions Team Total Over 33.5 Points: +100

The Detroit Lions offense is on another level. And even though the Commanders managed to hold Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to just 20 points, in hindsight, it probably should have been closer to 30 or even more. It wasn’t because of turnovers, either. The Bucs only had one, by fumble, on their final possession of the game.

What kept the Bucs off the scoreboard were the long, sustained drives by Washington. Tampa was 5/9 on third down, but only 44 plays to the Commanders’ 69 was the story of the contest.

Detroit hasn’t had the best defense this season. However, they have done their best work on 3rd downs. I don’t project Washington to be able to control the ball and clock against the Lions. Detroit may get to 40, so the even money on over 33.5 is a good way to get us started on our Divisional Round Playoff props.

C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes to Throw for 30+ Yards in Each Quarter: +475

This next bet is going against the narrative a bit, as most people expect the game between the Chiefs and Texans to be a defensive battle. Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs’ #1 cornerback, hasn’t played since December, and they have missed him a ton. He’s currently listed as questionable for this week’s game.

At best, he'll be less than 100%. That means he will likely need help defending Nico Collins, which opens things up a bit for a depleted Texans' wide receiving corps. DeMeco Ryans doesn't want to run the ball right at Chris Jones, so I think Houston has no choice but to play off the passing game.

Houston is one of the best 1st half offenses in football. And if the script plays out as expected, KC will have a healthy 2nd half lead. Both could work for us with this bet. As for Patrick Mahomes getting 30+ yards passing each quarter, the return of Hollywood Brown and playoff Travis Kelce could make the difference. It's not likely a win, but I love the value at nearly 5-1.

Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson to Rush for 10+ Yards in Each Quarter: +2000

This past weekend, the Baltimore Ravens made no bones that they want to run the ball down your throat. Why would they change this strategy against a 20th-ranked rush defense in the Buffalo Bills?

Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson averaged 5.9 and 6.8 yards per carry, respectively, in the 2024 regular season. Give them at least 2-3 carries per quarter, and we’re there. For 20-1 and the chance to pull for such a bruising physical approach, why not?

Basic Strategy Teaser: Kansas City Chiefs (-1) + Buffalo Bills (+7.5): -120

You can still get the Bills at (+1.5) in some books. Use the 6-point basic strategy teaser to get them above a touchdown at (+7.5). Also, tease the Kansas City Chiefs down to favorites of just (-1). I don't think many experts have KC losing this one. But, hey, if they do, that's something in and of itself to celebrate, too. It's a win/win.

Amon-Ra St. Bown and Terry McLaurin to Each Record 5+ Receiving Yards in Each Quarter: +750

Finally, let's take the game that looks like the biggest shootout and attack some receiving props. I feel more confident the Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown gets 5 yards per quarter than the Commanders' Terry McLaurin, who is mainly used over the top on deep passing plays.

That said, the Lions likely won't double-team the speedster. So, the potential is there, and for 7.5-1, I feel good about

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Start:	January 15, 2025 @ 9:10 PM
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NFL Divisional Round Props: Best Bets and Predictions

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