NFL Betting Predictions: Divisional Round Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 1/14/2025

NFL betting predictions Divisional Round opening line report Derrick Henry Baltimore Ravens

The first round of the NFL playoffs is behind us, and it is time to look ahead at the opening lines for the Divisional Round. Eight teams remain in the quest for the Super Bowl, and targeting the opening lines can be a very effective way to milk out one more winner with these Super Bowl hopefuls. The closing lines are often very sharp, but we can find value in the opening lines for the Divisional Round. In the Wild Card round, we went a perfect 3-0 on our opening line picks. The Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles won and covered with double-digit victories, securing a positive week. On Sunday night, the Washington Commanders won outright as a 3-point underdog to give us a perfect 3-0 sweep. This brings our season record to an astonishing 31-18-2.

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Before we jump into the Divisional Round, here are the biggest storylines from an exhilarating weekend of football.

Chargers going to Charger: The Los Angeles Chargers were eager to rinse their 27-0 blown lead against the Jaguars out of their mouths but followed it up with a playoff stinker. Justin Herbert threw four interceptions, as a shorthanded Texans team dominated Los Angeles.
What’s next for Tomlin? Mike Tomlin has famously never had a losing season but is still on the hot seat in Pittsburgh. The lack of a top draft pick has led to six straight playoff losses, with the last four coming by double digits.
Bills keep rolling: Buffalo didn’t let an early Bronco touchdown dampen their spirits, as they ripped off 31 unanswered points to book a date with the Ravens in the Divisional Round.
Can the Eagles be stopped? Philadelphia’s towering offensive line led them to another grueling playoff victory. The Eagles could be the most complete team in the NFL, and it’s difficult to see them falling short in the coming weeks.
A long 20 years: New owner, new coach, new quarterback, new franchise. The Washington Commanders won their first playoff game in 20 years just one season following their 4-13 finish. Jayden Daniels has already shattered numerous rookie records and delivered another mature final drive to bring rare joy to the Washington faithful.

The Divisional round is often the most exciting weekend of NFL football, as four high stakes playoff games will go down this weekend. By locking in your picks early in the week, you can avoid any late line movement leading up to kickoff. Even a one-point difference on the spread can go a long way, and it is crucial to make these three picks as soon as possible before it is too late.

Game 1: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions

Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-9.5)

The Washington Commanders will be looking to build on their first playoff victory in 20 years. And while they may not be able to beat Detroit, they can certainly cover this spread. The Lions went 15-2 in the regular season but won by double digits less than half the time. Detroit has the benefit of a week off to rest, and more importantly, heal their injuries. However, they are still extremely banged up on both sides of the ball, and it’s not realistic to expect them to win this one by double digits. The Commanders haven’t lost a game by more than one score since Week 1 and are as healthy as they have been all season. Their defense, led by Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, has been smothering, and the consistent play from Jayden Daniels cannot be matched. Both of these teams love going for it on fourth down, and Washington has been the far better team in ‘do or die’ situations. They have converted 87% of their attempts, while the Lions have been successful just 67% of the time. Washington has already surpassed even the wildest preseason expectations and will play pressure-free football in the Motor City. It wouldn’t shock me if they pulled off the outright upset, but taking the Commanders to cover the +9.5 point spread is the best Divisional round pick to make.

Pick: Washington Commanders (+9.5)

Game 2: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

The Rams pulled off a dominant victory against the Vikings on Monday night, while the Eagles had a comfortable win over the Packers on Sunday. Both of these teams will be feeling confident they can use their physical play to book their spot in the Championship round, but only one can take the next step on Sunday afternoon. The Rams have now gone 10-3 since their bye, and their defense has stepped up in recent weeks. Aside from a meaningless Week 18 game, the Rams have allowed just 33 points in their last four games combined. They haven’t allowed double-digit points in over a month and have been able to consistently pressure the quarterback this season. While that has worked well against middle of the pack teams, the Rams were completely torched on the ground last time these two met. Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns in late November in the Eagles 37-20 victory. The Rams haven’t lost a meaningful game since, but it is still hard to overlook how dominant the Eagles were in that meeting. Barkley is proving to be unstoppable behind Philly’s offensive line, averaging 2 yards before contact on up the middle runs (the NFL average is 1.1). The Rams defense has improved in recent weeks, but they are still 27th in the league in yards allowed after their poor start to the season. Shutting down bad teams and a frozen Sam Darnold is one thing, but the Eagles will be a whole different story. This is a great time to sell high on an overperforming Rams defense, as the Eagles cruise into the Conference round.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Game 3: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Pick ‘em

This is certainly the game of the week, as these two AFC heavyweights face off in Buffalo. Both of these teams are deserving of a spot in the Super Bowl as the two MVP favorites go toe-to-toe in the postseason. The Baltimore Ravens have been dominant on both sides of the ball, and their two-pronged offense is impossible to contain. Lamar Jackson has had his best season as a passer, and it happens to come when dominant running back Derrick Henry has opened up the run game. Jackson hasn’t had to do it all himself, and the presence of Henry has forced teams to fill up the tackle box. The Bills do a great job at containing mobile quarterbacks but lack the size inside to stop Henry. Baltimore already steamrolled the Bills earlier this season. And while it will be close this time around, the Ravens are still the pick to make. Josh Allen has been superhuman for the Bills, but the lack of depth on offense will eventually catch up to them. The Bills have only turned the ball over 8 times this season (the fewest in the NFL), which has inflated all their offensive statistics. Winning the turnover battle is certainly crucial, but the Bills have secured 24 more turnovers than their opponents this season. The Ravens do a good job at securing the football. And when the Bills can’t secure their usual two-turnover advantage, they will find themselves trailing on the scoreboard. This feels like it could be the Ravens year. And with no spread in this matchup, we will side with the road team.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (PK)

Season Record: 31-18-2

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Start:	January 15, 2025 @ 9:10 PM
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NFL Betting Predictions: Divisional Round Opening Line Report and Picks

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