NBA Western Conference Odds and Predictions to Make Play In Tournament

by Spencer Toth - 3/11/2025

The Western Conference standings are incredibly tight with a month remaining in the regular season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have separated themselves from the chasing pack in first place, but just 9 and a half games separate 2nd and 10th. There is still plenty to play for in terms of playoff and play-in tournament seeding, and this is a crucial final stretch for the playoff contenders. There are several teams that will only clinch a playoff spot in the final week of the season, and there is still plenty of money to be made in this playoff race. Instead of attacking who will make the playoffs, the sharper bets in the Western Conference are on who will qualify for the play-in tournament. The Clippers and Kings currently sit in 8th and 9th place, respectively, and have -1000 odds to make the play-in tournament. There is no reason to lay that kind of juice on a month-long future. Here are the remaining playoff hopefuls and the best bets for the razor-tight play-in tournament race.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 7th place, 37-29

Odds to make play-in tournament: -200

The Minnesota Timberwolves have -200 odds to make the play-in tournament, but this is far too much juice to pay. The Timberwolves have the easiest remaining schedule in the Western Conference and could easily climb into 6th place before the end of the season. Anthony Edwards has been inspirational for this team, and they are finally starting to gel as a whole after an injury-plagued season. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo have started to find their groove, and the Timberwolves will want to keep their foot on the gas in the final month of the season. They have won five straight games to leapfrog into 7th place and sit half a game behind the Warriors for 6th place. Minnesota should be closer to -110 to slip into the play-in tournament, making this an easy pass.

Pick: Pass

Dallas Mavericks: 10th place, 33-33

Odd to make play-in tournament: -120

The Mavericks title odds evaporated when they traded away Luka Doncic for an injured Anthony Davis. It is hard to remember this team made a run to the NBA Finals last season, as they are unrecognizable on the court. Injuries to Davis, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively, Daniel Gafford, and PJ Washington have dented their aspirations. But all hope is not lost. The Mavericks have some buffer to make the play-in tournament and will hope to take advantage of an easy remaining schedule to qualify for the postseason. Repeating their title run last year is highly unlikely, but the math says the Mavericks will likely qualify for the postseason. The Suns poor run of form and difficult schedule means Dallas probably has to go 5-11 or better down the stretch to make the play-in tournament. The -120 odds still give us enough room to turn a tidy profit for a probable situation.

Pick: Play-in Tournament qualification -120

Phoenix Suns: 11th place, 30-35

Odds to make play-in tournament: -110

The Phoenix Suns have had a very disappointing season and find themselves outside of the play-in tournament with a handful of games left in the season. There is no denying the talent of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal, but the team has been unable to click on either end of the court. There is still time to save their season, but there isn’t enough upside to pick the Suns to make the play-in tournament. They currently sit three games behind the Dallas Mavericks with 17 games left in the season. While Dallas is hobbled with their entire starting five injured, there still may not be enough time for the Suns to close the gap. Phoenix has the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA, with their opponents combined win percentage at a staggering .593. Phoenix will need to pull off multiple upsets, take care of business against the weaker teams, and hope the Mavericks continue to drop games. That is an awful lot of things that have to go right to cash a -110 bet, making this unplayable.

Pick: Pass

Golden State Warriors: 6th place, 37-28

Odds to make play-in tournament: +200

This is the best play-in tournament bet you can make. The Golden State Warriors have been playing excellent basketball since getting Jimmy Butler, but they are still just half a game out of the play-in tournament. They have been able to take advantage of an easy run of games over the last few weeks but have an above average remaining schedule with a .511 combined win percentage. Golden State is certainly a team to watch in the playoffs, but the +200 odds give us a huge upside for a very plausible result. Minnesota is hot on the heels of Golden State, and both teams have won five consecutive games. There is no reason the Warriors and Timberwolves should have such a discrepancy in the odds. Golden State is an experienced team, but their aging legs could give out on them in the final weeks of the season. At +200 odds, they are worth a decent sized wager on a small downtick in form.

Pick: Play-in Tournament qualification +200

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NBA Western Conference Odds and Predictions to Make Play In Tournament

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