NBA Trends for First Half of Season with Expert Analysis and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 1/21/2025

NBA trends for the first half of the season Kawhi Leonard Los Angeles Clippers

The halfway point of the NBA season is upon us, with each team in the league having played between 39 and 44 games this season. Certain trends have developed around the league over the first half of the season. Some teams have consistently lined the pockets of sports bettors with fantastic against the spread records, while others have fallen short time and time again. As we head into the second half of the year, it is crucial that we examine these trends from a large sample size of half a season. Here are the consistent winners and losers against the spread this year, accompanied by the perennial winners on the Over and Under total points.

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The Hot:

Cleveland Cavaliers (36-6 straight up, 29-13 ATS)

The Cavaliers have been the biggest surprise this season as they sit on top of the NBA standings at the halfway point. Their 36 outright victories are quite an impressive total, but even more impressive is their 29-13 against the spread record. The Cavaliers are not only winning games, but they are doing so in dominant fashion. A total of 25 of their 36 victories have come by double-digits, and they have an incredible +10.4 point differential this season. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley have been excellent on the defensive end, and their pair of guards in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have been unstoppable on offense. The oddsmakers have done their best to curb the Cavaliers winning run against the spread, making them the favorite in 38/42 games this season. The Cavaliers keep on winning, and they keep on winning big. Until they start getting double-digit spreads against a majority of the teams in the league, they will remain among the leaders against the spread this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7 straight up, 28-12-2 ATS)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have amassed young talent and draft picks for the last decade, and it is finally paying off. They have shot to the top of the Western Conference standings and have one of the youngest teams in the league. The oddsmakers were hesitant to give this team of unproven talents the respect they deserved on the spread, but have begun to learn their lesson. The Thunder have the best defensive unit in the league, and generate the most turnovers in the NBA, all while turning the ball over the fewest times themselves on the offensive end. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the front-runner for the MVP award, as the young superstar has been consistent on both ends of the court. He has scored 20+ PPG in 38 consecutive games and has led the Thunder to a +12.8 point differential. The Thunder have been favorites in all but two games this season, and are an easy pick against the spread anytime you see the number in single digits.

The Cold:

Philadelphia 76ers (15-26 straight up, 14-27 ATS)

The Philadelphia 76ers swung big in an offseason acquisition of Paul George, but it has yet to pay dividends. The 76ers are languishing outside the play-in tournament and are favorites on the betting odds to miss the postseason outright. Joel Embiid’s nagging injuries, Paul George’s slow start to the season, and Tyrese Maxey’s poor play on both ends have been major factors in their poor start. However, despite the losses piling up for the 76ers, they keep getting favorable spreads. They have failed to cover in 8 consecutive games and were surprising 8+ point favorites in two of those contests. There is no magic switch for the 76ers, as even a late resurgence is unlikely to be enough in a competitive Eastern Conference.

Phoenix Suns (21-21 straight up, 14-27-1 ATS)

The Phoenix Suns have had an average season, but the presence of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal has inflated their spreads all year long. These veteran household names will attract the attention of casual bettors, and the lines for Phoenix have exploded as a result. Durant and Booker can score the basketball, but a 24th-ranked defense ensures they have consistently fallen short against the spread. They have been favorites in 28/42 games this year, but have gone just 10-17-1 against the spread in those games. Until these spreads start accurately reflecting the current state of the Suns, they will keep falling short.

High Scorers:

Cleveland Cavaliers (Over is 28-14)

The Cavaliers have the best against the spread record in the league, and they also have the most Over winners this season. It’s not surprising to see the Cavaliers with the top-rated offensive unit that plays at the 6th highest pace of play, but what is surprising is why these totals haven’t been adjusted. The emergence of the Cavaliers offense is surprising, but it is time the oddsmakers start giving the Cavaliers the totals they deserve. They have slowed down a little bit in recent weeks, but have still gone 5-3 to the Over in their last 8 games. The most surprising stat is that the Cavaliers have combined to score 240 or more points 16 times this season, yet have only had a closing total of 240+ twice. Unless you see the Cavaliers in the high 230s, the Over will keep on rolling into the second half of the year.

Memphis Grizzlies (Over is 27-16)

The Grizzlies have been at the opposite end of the spectrum compared to the Cavaliers. Memphis has gotten low totals due to injuries all year long, but their bench players have been able to outperform the lines. It seemingly doesn’t matter who takes the court for Memphis, as they keep finding ways to fill up the hoop. Their 28-15 record proves that it isn’t their defense that has been the issue, as this team has turned into one of the dark horses in the Western Conference. Once Marcus Smart returns to the lineup, the Over will be a less consistent bet. However, until that time keep on trusting the Grizzlies to exceed their low expectations on offense.

Low Scorers:

Charlotte Hornets (Under is 24-15)

The Charlotte Hornets have completely fallen asleep on the offensive end and have seen both the losses and the Unders pile up as a result. LaMelo Ball is their offensive spark, but his lack of support has seen the Hornets get held to double digits 9 times this season. His stylistic resemblance to Trae Young and Damian Lillard has caused the totals to remain high for the Hornets, but they have begun to fall in recent weeks. Nine Unders in the first 11 games did a bulk of the heavy lifting for this record, and this isn’t one you will want to blindly tail heading into the second half.

LA Clippers (Under is 26-15-1)

The Los Angeles Clippers managed to stay afloat while Kawhi Leonard was hurt, and now look poised for a deep playoff run. James Harden and Norman Powell are both high scoring threats, but the Clippers ability to clamp down on defense has carried them to Unders all year long. Their totals have hovered in the 215 range for most of the year, but they still keep finding ways to stay under their ever-falling lines. Their highest total of the year was 230 points when they took on the Hawks, while the NBA average is 226.5 points. Leonard's return will bolster the Clippers offense, but the two-time DPOY will improve an already dominant defense, too. The totals won’t dip much lower for the Clippers, meaning the Under will likely cash more often than not for the rest of the season.

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Start:	January 21, 2025 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
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NBA Trends for First Half of Season with Expert Analysis and Predictions

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