Montreal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/17/2025

It would be hard to label the Washington Capitals season as anything other than just magical. They went from being one of the worst scoring teams in the NHL last season to finishing second in the league in scoring this year while also increasing their point total by 20. Not only that but the Great Eight broke the all-time goals record earlier this season. However, they aren’t the only team in this series who vastly improved from last season. Montreal improved their point total by 15 points from a year ago. In the three game regular season series between these two, the Capitals took the series 2-1 with a +4-goal differential.

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Team Summaries

As mentioned, the Washington Capitals completed a few offseason moves that resulted in them catapulting to the top of the Eastern Conference. With one game remaining in the regular season, the Capitals have 111 points, and their +59-goal differential is the second best in the conference while their 43 regulation wins leads the conference. After struggling to put the puck in the net last season, Washington will finish the regular season second in scoring as they have averaged 3.51 GF/G this season. They have also been incredible on the penalty kill this season as they have killed off 82.3% of their opponent’s man advantage opportunities. They also ranked inside the Top 10 in the league in GA/G as they allowed just 2.77 GA/G this season thanks to the emergence of Logan Thompson. Dylan Strome led the team with 81 points this season with 29 goals and 52 assists. Alex Ovechkin missed a significant amount of time in his record setting season but still finished second on the team in points (72) while recording 43 goals at 39 years old. The support staff has really emerged in Washington as guys like Connor McMichael (56 points), Aliaksei Protas (66 points, 30 goals), and Pierre-Luc Dubois (65 points) emerging on offense this season. Thompson appeared in 43 games this season and allowed just 2.49 GA/G while posting a 31-6-6 record.

Montreal cemented their playoff hopes with a win in last night’s contest as they secured the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. They finished the season with 91 points despite recording a -20-goal differential which is the worst mark among playoff teams this season. Regardless, they found their way into the postseason and are way ahead of schedule in terms of internal assessments. They did rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring as they averaged a mere 2.96 GF/G this season, but they did well on special teams and saw some improvement from their goaltending over their final 10 games in the regular season. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield continue to be the dynamic duo for Montreal as the two combined for nearly 28% of the teams goals this season. Suzuki led the team with 89 points while Caufield finished behind him with 70 points, and he led with 37 goals. Lane Hutson also had an incredible rookie season for the Canadiens as he finished third on the team with 66 points while leading the way with 60 assists. Depth became an unexpected strength in Montreal this season as they had 12 players record at least 10 goals. Sam Montembeault appeared in 62 games for Montreal this season and finished with a 31-24-7 record while allowing 2.82 GA/G.

Goalie Matchup

Thompson actually performed better on the road this season as he allowed just 2.20 GA/G away from home while allowing 2.65 GA/G on his home ice. He struggled in his two appearances against Montreal this season. He allowed five goals on 40 shots against. This will be his first postseason with Washington, and he has allowed 2.35 GA/G in his four postseason starts in his career.

The biggest factor in this series will be how well Montembeault can perform on the road. He allowed 3.18 GA/G on the road this season while posting a lowly .889 SV% across 23 road starts. He allowed four goals in his lone start against Washington this season. This will be his first playoff appearance in his career, and it will begin in the unfriendly confines of Capital One Arena.

Skaters to Watch

Washington Capitals:

The Great Eight will appear in his 16th playoffs this season and he has accumulated 141 points in 151 postseason games in his career.
Tom Wilson and Protas have combined to produce eight points in four games against Montreal this season.
After leading the team in points in the regular season, Washington will need Strome to keep his production up in the playoffs which is something he has struggled to do in his career. He has just five points in 15 career playoff games.

Montreal Canadiens:

Hutson and Juraj Slafkovsky will make their postseason debuts in this series after finishing third and fourth on the team in points this season.
Suzuki and Caufield have combined for nine points in four games against Washington this season.
Brendan Gallagher has finally led his Montreal squad back to the postseason as he will return to playoff action for the first time since the 2020/21 season. He has 31 points in 71 career playoff games.

Series Pick

Watching Montreal close out the regular season and clinch a playoff spot was an interesting storyline to follow, but the story will end here. Washington should breeze through this series, which is dangerous for the rest of the Eastern Conference teams as they basically get a nice tune-up series in which they can build some momentum heading into the later rounds. Ovechkin and company have not been overly flashy this season, but they are a well-balanced team that knows how to win. Look for Washington to sweep the young Montreal team here in the first round.

My Pick: to Win: Washington Capitals -260, Series Total Games: Under 5.5 +130, Series Exact Games: 4 Games +500

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Start:	April 19, 2025 @ 8:30 PM
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Montreal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals Series Predictions and Best Bets

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