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MLB Season Awards with Updated Odds and Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 6/27/2025

MLB awards update odds predictions Aaron Judge New York Yankees

With half the season behind us, now is a great time to reassess the odds-on MLB Player Awards this season. As of now, the MVP races favor a repeat winner in both leagues, while the AL Cy Young race also favors a repeat winner. While there are plenty of games left on the schedule, the closest race is the NL Rookie of the Year. Just one injury or cold spell could drastically alter the odds for any of these awards. With the All-Star Break near, let’s analyze the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races in each league.

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MVP

AL

Aaron Judge is looking to win his second consecutive AL MVP award this season and the oddsmakers are making him the heavy favorite at the end of June. He leads the pack with -950 odds with Cal Raleigh (+480) and Jeremy Pena (+6500) following. Judge leads the league in AVG (.361), WAR (5.8), and OPS (1.180) while also in a tie for second in the MLB in homeruns (28) and he is fifth in RBIs (63). Judge has more protection in the lineup this season with Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Trent Grisham performing better than expected. Raleigh is the only other player who is relatively close to Judge. Raleigh leads the league in homeruns (32) and in RBIs (69) while ranking second in OPS (1.031) and fourth in WAR (4.4).

My Pick: Aaron Judge -950

NL

The NL MVP race is currently led by last year’s winner, Shohei Ohtani. Like the AL award, Ohtani leads by a significant margin and these odds should only fall more into Ohtani’s favor as he continues to get work on the mound. Ohtani’s -1200 odds make him the favorite, and he is followed by Pete Crow-Armstrong (+1300) and Juan Soto (+3300). The Japanese superstar has a 3.9 WAR thanks to 28 homeruns and 11 stolen bases through 80 games this season. He has 52 RBIs on the year and leads the MLB in runs scored with 80. He also joins Judge and Raleigh as the only players in the MLB with OPS marks over 1.000. Crow-Armstrong is having an elite year as he is the first member of the 20/20 club this season as he has 21 homeruns and 24 stolen bases this season as he continues to spark the Cubs lineup. Unfortunately for Crow-Armstrong, he will be stuck behind Ohtani since the latter has also begun to pitch again this season.

My Pick: Shohei Ohtani -1200

Cy Young

AL

The reigning AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, once again is the favorite for the award this season. His -125 odds don’t make him a heavy favorite, though he is deservingly leading the pack. Skubal is 9-2 this season and has a 2.29 ERA through 102 innings this season. He has a 11.0 K/9 ratio this season and his 0.87 WHIP leads the league. He is fourth in strikeouts, and he has only allowed eight homeruns this season. Garrett Crochet (+350) and Hunter Brown (+450) are looking to dethrone Skubal and take the award this season. Crochet has a 2.06 ERA through 109.1 innings and leads the league with 135 strikeouts. As for Brown, his 1.74 ERA leads the league, and he has posted an 8-3 record with 12 quality starts this season. Max Fried (+1000) is another name to watch as he is second in the MLB with a 1.92 ERA and his 13 quality starts are tied for the most in the league. The AL Cy Young is going to be an exciting race to watch, but if Brown keeps doing what he is doing and leads the Astros back to the postseason he should win the award.

My Pick: Hunter Brown +450

NL

The NL Cy Young race has just three names with a real shot at winning it as we are near July. Paul Skenes, despite getting no help from his lineup, has the best odds at -200 with Zack Wheeler (+400) and Logan Webb (+850) following. Skenes leads all pitchers with a 4.0 WAR this season though he has just a 4-7 record in 17 starts. He has 110 strikeouts and a 2.12 ERA through 106 innings this season. He has only allowed five homeruns thus far and he has 12 quality starts. Wheeler also has 12 quality starts and ranks third in the MLB in strikeouts while also ranking sixth in WHIP. As for Webb, his numbers aren’t overwhelming but he is leading the Giants to relevancy, and he has been one of the most consistent arms in the league over the last few years. He has a 2.52 ERA (9th) and is tied for the league lead with 13 quality starts. He has 120 strikeouts through 107.1 innings, and he has allowed just six homeruns and 23 walks in that span. Unfortunately for Skenes, wins may play a factor in who takes home this award, and he is not going to be winning much with the Pirates. Wheeler should take home the award this season.

My Pick: Zack Wheeler +400

Rookie of the Year

AL

The AL Rookie of the Year race is currently led by two Athletics players, though one of them has a significant lead. Jacob Wilson is the heavy favorite to win this award at -650 while his teammate Nick Kurtz (+1200) follows. The Top Five is rounded out by Roman Anthony (+3000), Jac Caglianone (+3000), and Jasson Dominguez (+4000). Wilson has continued to be hit at an elite level this season as he is currently second in the MLB in AVG (.345) and hits (105). He has also tallied nine homeruns, 40 RBIs, and five stolen bases while recording a .870 OPS. Wilson’s glove could improve, but he has been one of the biggest on-base threats in the league and will win this award if he continues to hit at a high level. Kurtz has become an instant threat at the big-league level as well as he has 11 homeruns through 43 games this season while tallying 28 RBIs and a team best .516 SLG%. This is Wilson’s award to lose.

My Pick Jacob Wilson, -650

NL

The NL Rookie of the Year landscape looks a lot different than it did a month ago. Thanks to three elite starts, Jacob Misiorowski is the favorite to win at -150. He is followed by Drake Baldwin (+450) and Chase Burns (+1000). Both Misiorowski and Burns are benefiting from recency bias and media attention, though they both deserve it. Misiorowski has won his first three starts and he has recorded 19 strikeouts a 1.13 ERA through 16 innings pitched. Burns made his MLB debut this week against the Yankees and while he allowed three runs in five innings, he displayed elite strikeout potential recording by striking out eight. Baldwin is the only member of this trio to demonstrate consistency. He has appeared in 54 games this season and has nine homeruns and a .840 OPS. His 1.9 WAR is third on the Braves and he has been one of the better hitters in their underwhelming lineup. Both pitchers have higher ceilings even with the later promotion, but I like Baldwin to take home the hardware as an above average backstop bat and a solid glove.

My Pick: Drake Baldwin, +450

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