Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 4/16/2025

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers predictions and best bets Tyrese Haliburton

The Milwaukee Bucks get a chance at revenge after they lost in the first round to the Indiana Pacers last season. Milwaukee was unable to pick up a road win in that series, as the Pacers hot shooters kept them ahead of Milwaukee, with three of their four wins coming by 13 or more points. The Pacers and Bucks are relatively similar teams to how they were last season, and this promises to be another exhilarating series. Giannis Antetokounmpo will need to put the Bucks on his back with Damian Lillard still sidelined if Milwaukee has any chance to pull off this upset. Can the Pacers make another run to the Eastern Conference Finals, or will Indiana fall short at the first hurdle of a lengthy postseason?  

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Indiana Pacers:
The Pacers have one of the most balanced offenses in the NBA, which has allowed them to consistently finish near the top of the league in PPG. The Pacers were forced to deal with injuries all season long, but their well rounded shooters combined with the instrumental Tyrese Haliburton’s playmaking skills allowed the Pacers to still earn home court advantage in the first round. The Pacers have seven players averaging 10 or more PPG this season, and they will likely have one of the deeper rotations in the playoffs. Players like Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith are far from household names, but their contributions to the Pacers on both ends of the court could be the difference maker in a series like this. 

Indiana sold some of their future to bring in Pascal Siakam last season, and it remains to be seen whether or not that was a wise move. Siakam leads the team with 20.2 PPG, but that is his lowest regular season total in the last seven years. However, after nearly a decade in the league Siakam has learned how to shoot the three ball, and has become more efficient as a result. His 38.9% clip from deep is his career best by a significant margin, and Siakam has turned into a star who can score from all three levels. 

While Siakam’s offense will be needed, the heart and soul of this team is still Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton averaged 9.2 assists this season and tacked on 18.6 PPG too. He is a menace on the defensive end with a team-high 1.4 steals per game, but what has truly made him a dominant player is his ability to take care of the basketball. His 5.6 AST/TO ratio is the best in the league by a wide margin, and he is one of two players to average at least 6 assists with fewer than 2 turnovers per game. Haliburton stretches defenses, plays with maximum effort, and is the primary reason for the Pacers dramatic turnaround in recent years. 

Milwaukee Bucks:
The Bucks may get Damian Lillard back at some point in the playoffs, but they will need to take care of business first. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already proven he can lead this team to a championship, and he is looking as dominant as ever in his prime years. Antetokounmpo posted a 30/12/7 statline this season. His ability to gain momentum from behind the arc en route to the hoop has puzzled defenders for years and is unlikely to change anytime soon. The Greek Freak is unstoppable in the pain,t and the only option is to send him to the foul line as he struggles from the charity stripe. While Giannis scoring under the basket will lead to easy two points, it will be hard for the Bucks to keep pace with the lethal three point shooters in the playoffs without Lillard. 

Gary Trent Jr. was signed from the Raptors in the offseason, and the Bucks playoff chances now rest on that acquisition. Trent Jr. is one of the best three point shooters in the league, but he can’t create his own shots and is a relatively useless piece of the offense. Trent Jr. needs a capable point guard to get him open, and Trent Jr. has been struggling with Lillard on the sidelines. Antetokounmpo doesn’t take care of the basketball enough to quarterback an offense, and that leaves Kevin Porter Jr. as their primary playmaker. 

The Bucks are not going to win because of their offense, but rather a coherent effort on the defensive end of the court. Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez do a great job at clogging the paint, and Bobby Portis is back on the roster after serving his 25-game suspension. Lillard being out of the lineup hurts the Bucks offensively, but the reality is that the star guard is a liability on the defensive end. The Bucks have to turn their games into slow-paced games and limit the three point shots from the Pacers to have any chance at advancing. 

Prediction:

Giannis Antetokounmpo had his time in the spotlight a few seasons ago, and the league has turned its attention to other stars this season. While Antetokounmpo may feel like a forgotten superstar, he will remind the league that he is still here when the Bucks upset the Pacers. Milwaukee was unable to pick up a road win against Indiana last year in the playoffs, but went a perfect 2-0 in the regular season this year. Myles Turner has struggled to slow down the mobile Antetokounmpo and is often distracted by Brook Lopez under the hoop. Indiana shot the ball very well in last year’s playoffs, and that is unlikely to happen again this season. The Pacers offense is nowhere near as dominant as they were in 2023-24 while the Bucks have been getting better and better as the season has gone on. They finished off the season on an 8-game win streak without Lillard and have full belief they can pick up enough victories to stay alive until he comes back from injury. Indiana has been hot in their own right, but the interior size from the Bucks will allow them to win this series in front of their home fans. 

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks in 6 Games

Best Bets:

The Milwaukee Bucks are +165 underdogs to advance to the second round, and this is the best bet you can make. The Bucks will have learned how to slow down the Pacers after their humiliation last playoffs, and did well to win three of their four meetings in the regular season. Even though the Pacers have home-court advantage, Milwaukee has the talent, drive, and depth needed to beat the Pacers. I always knew the Bucks would be underdogs in this series, but a +165 line is far too generous for a team with a healthy Antetokounmpo ready to terrorize his opponents. 

For the second bet of the series, we will be taking Gary Trent Jr. to lead the series in threes at +600 odds. Haliburton is the odds-on favorite at +105, but all the value is on Trent Jr. With Damian Lillard sidelined, Trent Jr. is the only reliable shooter that will see significant court action for the Bucks. He won’t have to worry about going inside with Antetokounmpo and Lopez taking care of the paint, and he will wait behind the line for his chance to sink it from deep. Haliburton turns into a provider against the best teams in the league, and he will happily dish the ball to his teammates while Trent Jr. fires it off at any chance he gets. 

Top Pick: Milwaukee Bucks to Win the Series +165

Pick: Gary Trent Jr. to lead the Series in Threes +600

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers