March Madness: Breaking Down National Championship Odds vs. Seedings for Sweet 16

by Jeremy Block - 3/27/2025

March Madness seeds compared to National Championship odds Walter Clayton Jr. Florida Gators

It’s the most wonderful time of the year - March Madness is in full swing. The Big Dance, as always, provided us with the expected upsets, buzzer-beaters, and drama. However, as we head into the Sweet 16, the big question is: which teams are truly set up to make a run at the National Championship?

Every year, we look at the seedings and immediately think we know how things are going to go. Top seeds should cruise, right? But often, the odds don’t exactly line up with what the numbers next to the teams say. So, let’s take a closer look at how the odds for the National Championship measure up against the seeds, focusing on a few teams and their potential to win it all.

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No. 2 Seed - Alabama Crimson Tide

Odds to Win: +1800

It’s no surprise Alabama made it this far. However, surprisingly, they’re sitting at +1800 odds to win the National Championship. While their odds might say "not likely," their playstyle and performance scream "title contender." How? Well, keep in mind, this is a Crimson Tide team that is leading the nation with 90.8 points per game and just 42.9 rebounds per game.

They’ve shown they can win in a variety of ways -- whether it’s playing a fast-paced game or clamping down on the 3-point line, surrendering only 7.2 triples per game. Honestly, these odds are a steal. Alabama has played solid basketball all year. And, unlike most teams in this tournament, they show up on both ends of the floor.

But here’s the kicker: coming out of the East region, they’re likely to match up against the Duke Blue Devils -- which will be no easy task for the Tide. As the tournament heats up, their ability to score at will and shut down opponents’ perimeter shooting could make them the ideal bet to make to cut down the nets.

No. 1 Seed - Florida Gators

Odds to Win: +350

Moving to the West Region, we’ve got the Florida Gators. Now, we can’t deny their success this season, but they’re the first team on my list that I think is a bit overvalued. Are the Gators a real No. 1 seed? Sure. They’re not far behind the Crimson Tide, ranking 3rd in the nation with 85.4 points per game and 41.9 rebounds per game.

But here’s the thing -- I don’t see them as a true “contender” to win it all. Why? Well, their offense can put up points, but it’s been all about guard Walter Clayton Jr. carrying the load. I haven’t really seen anyone step up outside of him, which makes it easier for defenses to key in on him. And let’s not forget – they’re coming off a nail-biter against UConn, who was just an 8-seed. So, what does that tell you?

That said, don’t count them out completely. If they can keep Clayton Jr. hot and actually focus on defense, they could make a run to the Final Four. But Florida’s odds don’t quite add up to me compared to their seed, especially considering how they’ve performed in this tournament so far.

No. 5 Seed - Michigan Wolverines

Odds to Win: +7000

Here’s where things get interesting. Michigan, a No. 5 seed, has long odds to win it all - +7000. Talk about a nice payday, am I right? But if you’ve been watching their tournament play so far, you know this is a team that cannot be underestimated. They might not be the flashiest squad, but they’re definitely one of the toughest. With arguably the best big-man duo in college basketball, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, both averaging over 13 points and 7 rebounds per game, this Wolverines team can score and protect the paint like nobody’s business.

While they may get overlooked because they don’t have high-profile stars or flashy guards, their 2-point field goal defense and dominant interior presence more than make up for it. They’re ranked 18th in the nation, holding opponents to just 40% from the floor. It’s not glamorous, but it’s effective.

Love them or hate them, the Wolverines’ interior presence and unselfish basketball play style could give them a serious edge moving further into the Big Dance.

Their odds don’t reflect how this team has played so far. And if you like making money, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t be counting on Michigan to make a real run and shock the college basketball betting world. They have the potential to make a deep run, despite those long odds. Keep an eye on them.

4. No. 2 Seed - Tennessee Volunteers

Odds to Win: +1700

Tennessee is another team that stands out with their odds compared to their seeding. While they might not be the ultimate favorite or the one you hear about all the time on TV, they really should be. The Volunteers have been a nightmare for teams this tournament. Their offense keeps rolling along with a seasoned backcourt, led by SEC Player of the Year Zakai Ziegler and pure scoring guard Chaz Lanier.

And of course, we can't forget the best part about this team -- their defense. The Vols have set the standard for locking down shooting-first teams or perimeter players in general, holding opponents to just 28.3% from beyond the arc and allowing only 62.9 points per game. Not bad, right?

That said, Tennessee still has an uphill battle in the Midwest region. They’ll likely face a tough Houston team later on, which won’t be a walk in the park. But outside of that, the Vols have a solid chance to cut the nets down this season, and frankly, their odds don’t reflect that. My take? The Vols are seriously undervalued here across the board.

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Start:	March 30, 2025 @ 11:59 PM
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March Madness: Breaking Down National Championship Odds vs. Seedings for Sweet 16

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