Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 3/4/2025

by Spencer Toth - 3/4/2025

Hot and cold NBA betting teams ATS and over under Lauri Markkanen Utah Jazz

The final month of the NBA season is inching closer, and time is running out for the playoff hopefuls to make a late dash up the standings. This is a crucial stretch of the NBA season, as teams are looking to tune their rosters with the playoffs looming. Some teams have consistently outperformed their odds, while others have consistently fallen short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread with just one month to go in the NBA season. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

The Hot

Detroit Pistons:
It is hard to remember that the Detroit Pistons broke the single-season losing streak last season with 28 consecutive defeats. Flash forward a year later, and the Pistons are in pole position to make the playoffs, avoiding the play-in tournament altogether. The last 10 games have been a microcosm of what the Pistons have done this season. They have won nine of their last 10 games, covering the spread in eight. Detroit is suddenly a legitimate contender, as their young core is poised for a successful next decade in Detroit. Cade Cunningham has been a major factor to their success, but the depth of talent on this roster is the true driving force. The Pistons spent a decade in the basement of the Eastern Conference collecting assets while destroying the public’s perception of the franchise. Now that the Pistons have turned the corner, the public is still hesitant to back them against the spread, and this is a trend that will continue into the postseason. 

Golden State Warriors

When the Warriors brought in disgruntled superstar Jimmy Butler, it felt like a desperate attempt to stay relevant in Steph Curry’s final years. While there is no denying a move for Butler was driven by desperation, it has paid dividends for Golden State. The Warriors have won eight of their last 10 games, covering the spread in every victory. Curry continues to perform at the highest level despite his age, and the Warriors have a sneaky talented set of bench players to help in their championship push. The Warriors were double digit favorites against the Hornets. However, other than that, they have had very reasonable spreads. It is safe to say the Jimmy Butler experiment has been a success, so expect the Warriors spreads to start creeping higher in the closing weeks of the season. 

The Cold:

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have suffered from their success in the spread betting market. Memphis has been dealing with injuries all season but kept finding ways to pick up wins. Now that they are healthy once again, their spreads have been inflated, and they have gone just 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. They have only gone 4-6 straight up through a difficult portion of their schedule, but there is no denying their spreads were heavily inflated. They have had three straight losses of two or fewer points, and their luck will undoubtedly bounce back going forward. The Grizzlies were a fantastic against the spread bet with short spreads and an injured lineup. However, now that they are healthy and their spreads are pushing double digits, be careful. Memphis’s poor defense makes them too inconsistent to trust with massive point spreads. 

Philadelphia 76ers

The fall off of the 76ers has been one of the biggest storylines this season. Their 21-37-2 against the spread record mirrors their 21-39 overall record, and it is hard to think this team was one of the NBA title favorites heading into the season. In the last 10 games, they have gone 1-9 straight up and 2-8 against the spread. Joel Embiid played just 19 games this season, as he had another injury-riddled campaign. Paul George has been woeful in his first season with the 76ers, and Tyrese Maxey has fallen off a cliff after a promising year last season. The 76ers still have faint play-in tournament hopes, but Embiid has already been shut down for the season and the vibes are down for Philadelphia. The oddsmakers have begun adjusting their spreads to accurately reflect this team’s dreadful place in the standings, but it still isn’t enough. George and Maxey will be expected to improve. However, after 60 games this season, it is safe to say it won’t be happening. Fade the 76ers any chance you get. 

High Scorers:

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in this column thanks to their strong play on the offensive end. They have gone over the total in eight of their last 10 games, including seven in a row. Their offense has been one of the best in the league all season, but they are seemingly getting even better with the playoffs approaching. They have a healthy 11-game lead on top of the Western Conference, which has seen their defensive play get a bit lazy in recent weeks. They have given up 119 or more points in six consecutive games, yet still have the second-fewest points allowed in the NBA this season. Oddsmakers have started to adjust their totals, but it still feels like a matter of time before the Thunder start clamping teams up on defense. They have benefitted from recent matchups against high-flying offenses, so it is hard to be certain this is a sustainable trend. Keep tailing the Thunder against the spread, but the Over is not a trend we can bank on continuing. 

Utah Jazz

Unlike the Thunder, the Jazz are in this column for an entirely different reason. They have gone over the closing total in eight of their last 10 games but have just three wins in that span. Their defense has completely fallen apart down the stretch, and the Jazz have nothing to play for at this stage of the season. The injury list is growing for Utah, and they are already looking ahead at the draft for next season. It is hard to count on their G-League level offense to score on a nightly basis, but you can certainly count on the Jazz giving up 120+ points. 

Low Scorers:

Orlando Magic

The Magic can’t score. Their defense has been excellent all year long, allowing a league-low 105.7 PPG. However, they have been unable to translate their defensive dominance into wins due to their lack of scoring. The Magic have stayed under the total in eight of their last 10 games despite the total never closing at more than 226 points. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have been unable to replicate their early-season scoring, and it has resulted in the Magic slipping down the standings. Orlando is 23-29 to the Under this season, as even with low totals they keep falling short. The oddsmakers aren’t going to start posting sub-200 totals making the Under a consistent play for games featuring Orlando. 

Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers have stepped up on the defensive end. They have won six straight games and have stayed under the total in seven of their last 10. The arrival of Luka Doncic has seen the Lakers totals get bumped up a few points, but they keep falling way short of the closing lines. Despite seven straight unders, their total hasn’t dipped below 220 points. LeBron James and Luka Doncic are expected to score, and the Lakers will continue to see inflated totals down the stretch. The loss of Anthony Davis was expected to hurt them defensively, but the entire team has stepped up and has legitimate championship hopes next month. 

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers