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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 1/16/2025

by Spencer Toth - 1/16/2025

Hot and cold NBA betting teams ATS and over under Darius Garland Cleveland Cavaliers

The halfway point of the NBA season is upon us, and some teams are storming into the second half of the season while others are already limping over the finish line. Over the last few weeks, a pair of teams have been able to consistently cover the spread, while another duo has fallen short time and time again. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread, with the highest and lowest scorers over the last 10 games. 

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The Hot:

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are sitting on top of the NBA standings as the season rolls into the second half. They have gone 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games and have a stunning 8-2 record against the spread too. They have been favorites in all but one of those contests and were double-digit favorites on four separate occasions. The oddsmakers are doing their best to keep up with the 33-6 Thunder, but this team keeps blowing out their opposition. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10, with a whopping 8 of those victories coming by double digits. It’s not as if they have been playing the worst teams in the league, either, as they have 10+ point wins over the Celtics, Grizzlies, and two over the Knicks. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been a freight train this season, and they are doing all this without Chet Holmgren. It’s truly frightening to think about the trajectory of this franchise, and there is no reason to stop tailing them now. It doesn’t matter if the spread is pushing double digits, picking the Oklahoma City Thunder to win and cover the spread will be a profitable move all season long. 

Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz are a surprising inclusion on this list, but they have been playing improved basketball over the last two weeks. They are just 3-7 in their last 10 games but are an impressive 7-3 against the spread. It’s not surprising to find out the 10-29 Jazz have been underdogs in 9 of their last 10 games, but their ability to play competitive basketball has allowed them to cover these spreads. Lauri Markkanen isn’t playing to the same level as he did last season, but the return of Colin Sexton to the squad has kept the Jazz semi-respectable. The Jazz will keep getting these chunky spreads regardless of the opponent or venue this season and could continue their hot streak into the second half. 

The Cold:

Dallas Mavericks 

The Dallas Mavericks are plummeting down the standings. They have gone just 2-8 straight up and an even worse 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games. Injuries to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have certainly played a factor. However, the sportsbooks knew the pair of superstars would be out and still overvalued the Mavericks. They have been hesitant to give Dallas a big spread, with their largest pregame point spread coming in at 9 points against the 34-5 Cavaliers. This cold stretch has emphasized how vital Irving, and especially Doncic, is to this team. The Mavericks made a run to the NBA Finals on the back of a Herculean effort from Doncic but wouldn’t even make the playoffs without their Slovenian superstar. As long as Doncic remains out, fading the Mavericks will continue to pay dividends. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves have now had half a season to build chemistry after the Towns-Randle trade, yet they are still falling short. The Timberwolves have gone a pedestrian 5-5 straight up in the last 10 games, but just 2-7-1 against the spread. They had narrow victories against the Wizards, Clippers, and Spurs, all of which resulted in them failing to cover the healthy spreads. Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert have been unable to build a rapport together on the court, but the star power in Minnesota ensures they are consistently overvalued. They have gone just 15-24-1 against the spread this season but find themselves in the top half of the league. The moneyline will keep cashing for the Timberwolves. However, until their spreads fall back down to an accurate representation of this team, they will keep falling short against the margin. 

High Scorers:

Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks play fast-paced basketball, they don’t care about defense, and they have an electric Trae Young capable of putting up inhuman numbers. The Hawks have gone 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games and are now 25-13-2 so far this season. It’s not as if the oddsmakers aren’t trying to keep up with this team, as they have had a closing total of 230+ points in 17 of their last 19 games. Usually, they are hovering in the high 230’s, but that still doesn’t reflect the boatload of points this team puts up. Going forward, the Hawks will keep putting up these massive numbers and will probably keep cashing Overs along the way. Regardless of the total, when the Hawks play another fast-paced, defensively careless team, the over will always be a great pick to make. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have the best offensive rating in the league and have been cashing Over tickets for the last two weeks. They have gone 7-3 to the over while compiling a 9-1 record straight up in the process. The Cavaliers have come out of nowhere to sit on top of the NBA standings, and their dominant offense has been the deciding factor. Donovan Mitchell has long been the leader of this team, but the emergence of Darius Garland in the backcourt has turned them into an offensive juggernaut. Garland is averaging 21 PPG with 6.7 assists this season and has been very efficient with his shots. The oddsmakers have tried to adjust by inflating their totals, but the Cavaliers keep cashing the Over. However, a red-hot team like the Cavaliers on an Over run like this will draw attention, and this is not a streak that will continue into the second half of the season. 

Low Scorers:

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns wouldn’t even be in their play-in tournament if the playoff started today. They have several household names on their roster, but their lack of scoring has seen them go under in 8 of their last 10 games. When the public hears Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal are all suiting up, they immediately gravitate towards the Over. However, the Suns keep getting sky-high totals and keep coming out flat on offense. Until these totals drop back down to reality, the Under cashing could become a persistent trend for the Suns. 

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets offense is nothing without a red-hot LaMelo Ball, and they have cashed the Under in 8 of the last 10 games. They have scored 110 or fewer points in 7 of their last 10 games and have a 2-8 record in that span. Their defense has been improving, but it hasn’t been enough to turn those low-scoring offensive nights into victories. There is nothing for the Hornets to play for this season, but that doesn’t mean they will fall asleep on the defensive end. Head coach Charles Lee prioritizes defense, and he will ensure the young Hornets roster is giving maximum effort on both ends of the court. 

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