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Handicapping the NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Race

by Spencer Toth - 3/11/2025

Handicapping the NBA Eastern Conference playoff race Franz Wagner Orlando Magic

The playoff race in the Eastern Conference is heating up with just one month remaining in the NBA regular season. The Cavaliers, Celtics, and Knicks are all comfortably sitting in the top three seeds, but fourth through 13th are within five games of the play-in tournament. There has never been a better time to make future bets, as with less than 20 games left in the season, you will not have to tie up your bankroll for very long. Here are the fringe playoff teams with the best bets on their potential playoff qualification. 

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Atlanta Hawks: 7th place, 31-34

Playoff Odds: -280 Make/Miss +215

Atlanta is currently sitting in 7th place despite their sub .500 record this season. They lost Jalen Johnson to injury earlier this year and traded away D’Andre Hunter to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It is clear this team still needs another star to pair with Trae Young, but they have been able to take advantage of a weak Eastern Conference this season. The -280 odds don’t leave much value available for the Hawks, but this is still a price we can get behind. 

Atlanta has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NBA and should be able to cling onto 7th place at the end of the season. This will give them two home games to pick up a single victory, something Young and the Hawks are certainly capable of. Trae Young has consistently put this team on his back, and there is no reason to expect anything less this year. Atlanta is in pole position to make the playoffs and even potentially pull off an upset or two in the first round. Even at -280 odds, this is a great bet to make. 

Pick: Make -280

Chicago Bulls: 10th place, 27-38

Playoff Odds: +700 Make/Miss -1200

Chicago has a four-game lead ahead of 11th place in the East and will feel confident they can qualify for the play-in tournament. The Bulls shipped away their stars and are looking ahead to the future, but a few games of playoff experience will go a long way in developing this squad. The Bulls should be able to make the play-in tournament, but even then the +700 odds don’t offer enough upside. The Bulls are unlikely to pull off back-to-back road wins to punch their playoff ticket, and they will instead shift their attention to the NBA draft lottery. 

Pick: Miss -1200

Miami Heat: 9th place, 29-35

Playoff Odds: -160 MakeMiss/ +130

The Miami Heat have been playoff mainstays in recent seasons and have proven dangerous in the postseason. They made a shock run to the NBA Finals as an #8 seed and are a team no one wants to play in the first round. However, their swagger has evaporated without Jimmy Butler, and these odds are a little generous for the Heat. 

Miami is dealing with a multitude of injuries at this stage of the season, and I am not even sure their healthy squad would make the playoffs. They have a virtually identical strength of schedule as the Bulls and Magic, and it is hard to see them jump to 8th place before the end of the season. Tyler Herro has been unable to fill Butler’s shoes, and the Heat look like a team going nowhere fast. If the Heat finish in 9th, which is what I expect, they will need to win two games to make the playoffs. That is a tall task, and the +130 odds available for them to get bounced in the play-in tournament are too good to pass up. 

Pick: Miss +130

Orlando Magic: 8th place, 30-36

Playoff Odds: -130 Make/Miss +110

The Orlando Magic have been a difficult team to get a read on this season. They came out of the blocks red hot but cooled off in the second half of the year. They lost both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to long term injuries earlier this season. They were able to stay in the top 5 of the East with their superstars sidelined and have surprisingly been worse since their return. The Magic are a truly elite defensive team, and have the scoring needed from Banchero and Wagner to make a deep playoff run. The troubling trend of Banchero and Wagner hurting the Magic’s win percentage is unlikely to continue, and the Magic are in an excellent position to make the playoffs. 

This is a team that is capable of not only making the playoffs but going on a deep run. It is surprising to see the Heat with better playoff odds all things considered, but we aren’t complaining about this juicy price available with Orlando. The Magic have gotten healthier, while injuries pile up for the Heat and Hawks. It is a tight play-in race, but a top 8 seed will give the Magic the benefit of needing just one win in two tournament games. They are more than talented enough to take advantage of their soft remaining schedule and will be on upset watch in the postseason. 

Pick: Make -130

Toronto Raptors: 13th place, 22-43

Playoff Odds: +2500 Make/Miss -10000

The Raptors are longshots to make the playoffs, but they are worth a sprinkle with odds like this. Toronto has the easiest remaining schedule in the league, and it is not even close. Their final 17 opponents have a combined win percentage of .382, and they play just two games against teams with a winning record. Aside from new arrival Brandon Ingram, this team is healthy and is struggling to tank with their talented roster. Head coach Darko Rajakovic has elected to rest his starters in close games. However, as the season gets closer to completion, he may be forced to push for the playoffs. This prop has +2500 odds for a reason, as the Raptors are 4 games back of 10th place. However, the Raptors schedule is full of easy games, and this is worth a small sprinkle. 

Pick: Make +2500

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