Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 4/17/2025

The Houston Rockets have emerged from their rebuild after missing the playoffs in four consecutive seasons. They fought hard in the regular season to secure the 2nd seed in a competitive Western Conference, and their reward is a first round matchup against the Golden State Warriors. Golden State needed the play-in tournament to qualify for the postseason, but that doesn’t make them any less of a threat in the postseason. The Warriors are led by Steph Curry and new arrival Jimmy Butler. The duo has a combined 266 games of playoff experience, while the Rockets are full of players set to make their playoff debuts. Can the rising stars prove they deserve the second seed, or will it be another deep playoff run for Curry and the Warriors?

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Houston Rockets:
The Houston Rockets have a unique roster that is built for regular season success. Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks are two veteran guards who know what it takes to win while the rest of the roster is full of inexperienced NBA talents. VanVleet became a household name during the 2019 Toronto Raptors championship run, and even got a Finals MVP vote as an undrafted free agent. His ability to play point guard responsibly has been crucial to the Rockets success, and he will be the stable vet on the court when the Rockets are in high-pressure situations against the Warriors.

While VanVleet’s experience is certainly crucial, the Rockets are led by a pair of youngsters in Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. Sengun has the potential to turn into a Jokic-esque superstar for the Rockets, as his career trajectory has followed an eerily similar path up to this point. Sengun has posted 10.3 rebounds with 4.9 assists this season while tacking on 19.1 PPG. His ability to generate offense from the center position has been a massive part of the Rockets offensive success, and he has the potential to pull off incredible passes in the paint. Joining Sengun as the face of the franchise is Jalen Green. Green leads the team with 21 PPG this season and is capable of scoring from all three levels. He is a strong shooting guard who has played fearless basketball in his fourth NBA season. He had a slow finish to the season, but the Rockets will be confident he can regain his mid-year form in this series. While Houston’s offense is strong, it was their fourth-ranked defense that got them to this stage of the season. The Rockets do a great job at stopping the three point shot, as their 12.3 threes allowed per game is the second fewest in the league. Stopping the open looks from deep while funneling the offense towards Sengun in the paint has worked wonders for the Rockets. The Rockets are poised for a strong playoff run and will get immediately tested against the Warriors in the first round.

Golden State Warriors:

Steph Curry’s time with the Golden State Warriors will go down as one of, if not the most, dominant eras in the history of the sport. Less than a decade ago, the Warriors had negative odds to win the NBA championship at this stage of the season. While Golden State may not be nearly as dominant today, they still have the 5th-best championship odds and a core capable of making a deep run. The Warriors shipped away Klay Thompson in the offseason and replaced his shooting with the lethal Buddy Hield. Hield is one of the greatest three point shooters of all time, but his inability to create his own shots forced the Warriors to bring in more reinforcements. Jimmy Butler was acquired at the trade deadline and has seamlessly slotted into the Warriors lineup. This is the first time in his career that Butler is not the primary scoring option on his team, which has allowed him to play much more relaxed basketball. Butler and Curry are two well rounded guards for the opponent to slow down, and will be a dual threat regardless of who their opposition is.

While Curry and Butler are certainly impressive, it has been the work of Draymond Green this season that has kept the Warriors relevant. Green is the odds-on favorite to win DPOY this season and has been a crucial part of the Warriors defense. Golden State is still a middle-of-the-pack team defensively, but they are far improved from last season. The Warriors lack the height needed to stop tall teams, but their ability to gang rebound has prevented them from getting destroyed on the glass. They are inside the top five in rebounds despite being the second shortest team in the league. Strong play in the paint will allow the Warriors shooters to be the difference makers in the playoffs, and that is a battle the Warriors will take on every day of the week. Golden State may be the 7th seed heading into the postseason, but there is no denying the upset potential for the Warriors this year.

Series Prediction:

The Golden State Warriors may go down as the most popular 7th seed of all time, but that doesn’t mean they will necessarily win this series. Houston is a tall team, especially in the front court, and the Warriors will be unable to slow down their offense. Sengun hasn’t been much of a scorer against Draymond Green, but he still hauls in his fair share of rebounds and is responsible with the basketball. The Rockets have a significant height advantage in almost every position, and even a hustling Warriors team will struggle to contain them on the glass. On the other end of the court, the Warriors generate a large portion of their offense from behind the three point line. This happens to be one of the Rockets strengths defensively and has them poised to advance to the second round. Teams have had more than a decade to adjust to the Warriors three point barrage, and Houston is the perfect team defensively to slow them down. VanVleet has already shut down Curry in the past, and it is hard to see the Warriors winning without a big series from Steph. I expect this one to go right down to the wire, given the Warriors championship experience, but for Houston to ultimately prevail on their home court.

Prediction: Houston Rockets in 7 Games

Best Bets:

Believe it or not, the 2nd seeded Houston Rockets are sizable underdogs against the Golden State Warriors. Houston has +160 odds to advance and this is a number we can absolutely get behind. I expected the series odds to be much closer to 50/50 and am loving the Rockets at this price. Houston has the better defense, a comparable offense, and home court advantage in this series. That doesn’t sound like a +165 underdog to me, and there is no reason the odds should be this wide heading into the series.

For the second pick, we will be laying some juice on Over 5.5 games at -190 odds. It is very hard to imagine either of these teams winning in five games or fewer, especially considering game five will be played on the underdog Houston’s home court. We would need the Warriors to win game five on the road, or for the Rockets to defy the NBA odds with a dominating series against Golden State to lose this bet. I don’t expect either of those to happen, and will happily lay the juice on this incredibly likely prop.

Pick: Houston Rockets to Win Series +160

Top Pick: Over 5.5 Games in the Series -190

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Start:	April 19, 2025 @ 8:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Series Predictions and Best Bets

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