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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/29/2025

by Spencer Toth - 1/29/2025

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets

The New York Knicks will look to extend their four-game win streak tonight, but they face a tough challenge against the MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. All year long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every weekday Knicks game while providing the best bets along the way. 

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On Monday night, the Knicks beat the Memphis Grizzlies 143-106. It was their second consecutive victory with 143 points scored, as the Knicks offense came to life against a defensively sound Grizzlies team. Mikal Bridges led the way with 28 points, but the starters were allowed to rest for virtually all of the fourth quarter with the massive lead. It is not as if the Knicks got hot from behind the arc, as they shot 52% from the floor and 39% from deep. However, they collected 20 steals and forced 26 turnovers, and all those extra possessions allowed them to run up the score with 17 more shot attempts than Memphis. 

From a betting perspective, we went 0-3. The Grizzlies didn’t even come close to covering the +3.5 point spread, and the blowout nature prevented Jalen Brunson from reaching 25.5 points. Finally, Karl-Anthony Towns found his rhythm from deep, nailing two of his four three pointer’s to narrowly sail over 1.5 threes. 

Tonight, the New York Knicks (31-16) welcome the Denver Nuggets (28-18) to Madison Square Garden. The Nuggets are led by Nikola Jokic at center and are looking to repeat their 2023 NBA championship this season. It is hard to put into words how dominant Nikola Jokic has been, but let’s give it a shot. 

Using conventional stats, there is no doubt Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league. His 30 PPG is third in the NBA, as is his 13.1 rebounds per game. He has also been a facilitator, as his 10.2 assists per game only trails Trae Young. Even more incredibly, Jokic is shooting 47.4% from behind the three-point line, the third best number in the league. His +14.23 plus/minus is on pace for the best in the history of the NBA, and Jokic’s last four seasons are four of the best six plus/minus in league history. It’s not as if he is being carried by his team either, as the Nuggets have a -9.8 point differential in the 11.6 minutes Jokic is not on the court each game. Jokic is truly a one-man wrecking crew and is fully capable of single-handedly snapping the Knicks hot streak. 

The game plan for New York is pretty simple. Slow down Jokic and win the game. Karl-Anthony Towns will have his work cut out for him in the paint, but it is on the rest of the team to cover the open shooters when Jokic drives into the lane. Denver will allow Jamal Murray or Russell Westbrook to operate in isolated coverage, as Denver’s next best players haven’t shown the ability to push the team over the line without Jokic facilitating. 

The Knicks offense has been on fire over the last few weeks and has won 16 of their last 21 games dating back to early December. The chemistry appears to finally be building for New York, and they will be a very dangerous team when the postseason rolls around. There is no denying the quality of their starters, and their rapidly improving bench unit gives Tom Thibodeau options other than playing his top five 40+ minutes per game. 

Last time these two teams met, the Knicks held Jokic to a very pedestrian 22/7/7 stat line in their 145-118 victory. OG Anunoby exploded for 40 points, and the Knicks shot 61% from the floor and 53% from behind the arc. Those kinds of shooting numbers can’t be expected again tonight, but New York will need to put up 120+ points if they hope to remain competitive against the offensively lethal Nuggets. 

The Nuggets defense has let them down in each of their last two defeats, and another high scoring game is on the cards. For the first bet of the evening, we will be targeting the sky-high 240 point total and riding with the Over. The Knicks have soared past this number in back to back contests, and the Nuggets have done so in four of their last five games. These high profile matchups can occasionally bring increased defensive intensity, but the matchup simply favors a high scoring game. For the Nuggets, Towns has struggled against creative centers in his career and isn’t fully healthy heading into his matchup. Josh Hart is the perfect help defender against a player like Jokic, but he was seen limping last game and is questionable tonight. For Denver, the Knicks struggle at slowing down the three ball, and I expect them to have a big night from behind the arc against New York. Jokic draws defenders in, and the rest of the Nuggets roster is equipped with shooters capable of knocking down open shots. 

The Nuggets are 3-point underdogs against the Knicks tonight, but we will be swinging for the fences with their +135 moneyline. Denver is desperate for a victory after dropping two in a row, and this is a juicy price tag for that happening. Denver has lost two games in a row six times this season and is a perfect 5-0 straight up in the following games. Jokic may not be the most motivated NBA player, but he still doesn’t like losing and has been able to carry his team to victory when a third straight loss is on the horizon. 

Finally, we will be taking the big man himself to score over 1.5 three pointers at +105 odds. Jokic is lethal from behind the arc, and the Knicks are one of the worst teams at defending the deep ball. Towns struggles against mobile centers, and Jokic has cleared this line in three of his last four games. 

Pick: Knicks vs Nuggets Over 240 3 Units

Pick: Denver Nuggets Moneyline +135 8 Units

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Three Pointers +105 4 Units

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