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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/21/2025

by Spencer Toth - 1/21/2025

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping Karl-Anthony Towns

The New York Knicks have struggled on the second night of back-to-backs this season and will look to improve on their 2-3 record when they make the crosstown trip to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. You have found the right place for all your New York Knicks picks this season, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Knicks weekday game this season while providing the best bets along the way. 

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Yesterday afternoon, the New York Knicks rallied for a 119-110 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. They went into halftime trailing by 8 points, but Mikal Bridges and his 10 points in 3 minutes to kick off the third quarter quickly eliminated that deficit. Jalen Brunson’s 34 points were a game-high, as the Knicks cruised to a crucial win at home against Atlanta. Trae Young was met with his usual chorus of boos whenever he took the floor at Madison Square Garden, and he finished with a team-high 27 points. 

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect 3-0 night. The New York Knicks made us sweat, but they eventually won outright and covered the -6 point spread to start us off 2-0. Their ability to clamp down in the second half allowed them to win the closing two frames by a combined score of 65-48. To wrap up the sweep, we took a massive shot with a 7-Unit play on Mikal Bridges to score 20+ points at +120 odds. Bridges went into halftime with 8 points, but his early third quarter explosion allowed him to finish the game with 26 points. 

Tonight, the New York Knicks (28-16) make a quick turnaround against the Brooklyn Nets (14-29). New York will not have to travel far for this matchup and has the benefit of taking on a true bottom-feeder when they have no rest. The afternoon tip-off yesterday will certainly help the Knicks out, and they are still overwhelming favorites to pick up the win in Brooklyn. The Brooklyn Nets got off to a surprisingly average start with a 9-10 record through the first quarter of the season. However, they were unable to keep up their early momentum, and have gone just 5-19 since. Trading away Dennis Schroeder certainly didn’t help their cause, but it has to be said that a very soft early season schedule allowed the Nets to artificially inflate their record. This will not be a game with both teams at full strength, as the Nets have already ruled out several of their starters for tonight. They have a growing injury report, with Bojan Bogdanovic, De’Anthony Melton, and Cam Thomas all missing this game. Bogdanovic has yet to make his season debut, Melton is out for the year, and Thomas should be back in action sometime this week. To make matters worse, Ben Simmons and D’Angelo Russell are both questionable tonight, too. New York is on the second night of a back-to-back, but they rotated their players well yesterday afternoon and don’t play again until Saturday night. Karl-Anthony Towns was hobbled against the Hawks, and it wouldn’t be a shocking decision if he was given tonight off to heal up his knee and thumb. 

Regardless of who is on the court for New York, a troubling trend has developed on the defensive end. When you think about defense in the NBA, the first thought that pops into most people’s minds is a strong interior leading to no easy shots in the paint. While the Knicks do a solid job at slowing down the high percentage looks, their three-point defense has fallen off a cliff. We can no longer chalk up the opposition’s hot shooting nights from deep to a mere coincidence, as the Knicks now allow the second highest opponent three point percentage in the league with 37.9%. Luckily for them, the Nets are the only team worse (38%). So, while it may not be an issue tonight, this is the perfect opportunity to shore things up before the opposition gets tougher. Jalen Brunson has been the primary reason for this poor defensive play, as he has been getting exposed in one-on-one coverage behind the arc. The Knicks are frequently forced to send help for Brunson on the defensive end as a result. In the modern-day NBA, leaving anyone open from behind the arc is a recipe for disaster, and the Knicks will continue to be punished by Brunson’s inability to pull his weight. 

It feels odd to call a game against a bottom-quarter team in the league a must win, but this is a massive game for the Knicks season trajectory. The Knicks have one of their longest breaks of the season with three full days off after the Nets game and will want to have the right mentality as they hit the gym this week. Immediately following the Nets, the Knicks have an interesting quirk in their schedule as they welcome Western Conference opposition to Madison Square Garden in each of their next five games. Not only that, but all five opponents are in the top 8 out West, meaning there will be no easy victories for New York.

The Knicks injury report will not be released until late afternoon, but we can expect Tom Thibodeau to play all his starters. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Towns sit thanks to his nagging injuries, but he plays more often than not. For the first bet of the evening, we will be laying the points with the Knicks. While a double digit spread on the road is not ideal, the Nets home arena will be full of Knicks fans tonight. New York will not take their foot off the gas down the stretch with a nice break incoming, and I expect them to take advantage of a struggling Nets team. They will finally match up against a team just as bad as they are at defending the 3 ball, and that will result in a comfortable Knicks victory. 

For the second bet of the night, we will be taking Towns to score Over 1.5 threes at -120 odds. Towns has cleared this line in four of his last six games, and has taken an average of 5.3 attempts per game in that span. He hasn’t shown any hesitation to shoot from deep, and Nic Claxton will prefer to stay under the hoop as often as possible. His thumb injury appears to not have affected his shot, and he will use tonight to get into rhythm from deep. 

Pick: New York Knicks (-11.5) 4 Units

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Threes -120 2 Units

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