Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/20/2025
The New York Knicks are entering a pivotal stretch of their season, as they look to secure a top-half seed in an extremely competitive Eastern Conference. New York currently sits in third place, but just four games separate them from a drop down to 8th and a place in the play-in tournament. The special 3 PM EST tip-off for Martin Luther King Day could disrupt their rhythm, as the Knicks will have to dial in if they hope to extinguish the red-hot Hawks. All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every New York Knicks game with the best bets along the way.
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On Friday night, the Knicks lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 116-99. Karl-Anthony Towns could not suit up against his former team due to injury, and the Knicks lack of size inside allowed the Timberwolves to pull away. Anthony Edwards scored a game high 36 points, as the Timberwolves hot hands from behind the arc got them over the line against New York. Jericho Sims was ineffective in his starting role as a replacement for Towns. Precious Achiuwa did better, but he was still a liability on the offensive end and the Knicks struggled to score without Towns spacing the floor.
From a betting perspective, we had a slightly positive night after going 1-1. Our biggest bet of the evening was on the Under 218.5 points, which cashed by a single bucket. Our lone loss of the game was on Julius Randle, who continues to have a subpar season with the Timberwolves. Randle finished with 14 Points + Assists, well short of the 23.5 pregame line.
Tonight, the New York Knicks (27-16) will look to get back to winning ways when they welcome the Atlanta Hawks (22-19) to Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are desperate for some momentum, as they have lost 6 of their last 10 games while the Hawks have strung together three consecutive victories. These two teams last met in the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup on December 11th, 2024. Both teams struggled to score the basketball, shooting less than 45% each from the floor and 30% from behind the arc. However, 22 offensive rebounds carried Atlanta to a 108-100 upset victory. These two teams are both overwhelming favorites to qualify for the NBA postseason, and this could be a potential playoff preview. If the playoffs started today, the league would be treated to a fascinating matchup between these two teams bursting with talent.
The Atlanta Hawks have been stuck in purgatory over the last four seasons, finishing with 41, 43, 41, and 36 wins. They made a shock run to the Eastern Conference finals in 2021, beating the Knicks 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs. Trae Young has turned himself into a perennial villain whenever he steps onto the Knicks home court, and the boo birds will be loud tonight in New York. These two teams have changed dramatically since that meeting, and are both equipped with more complete rosters capable of going on a deep run. For the Hawks, their offense has never been an issue in the Trae Young era, and they finally have the defensive support needed to beat the league’s top teams. They held the high-flying Boston Celtics to just 115 points in their overtime victory on Saturday, and have a surprisingly average defense this year. The introduction of Dyson Daniels combined with the emergence of Jalen Johnson has turned the Hawks into a legitimate contender. Daniels leads the league in steals (3.1) by a wide margin, as second-place Gilgeous-Alexander (2.1) is closer to 64th in the league than he is to Daniels. Young and Johnson are also both inside the top 30 in steals, and they will look to match the defensive intensity from OG Anunoby and Josh Hart in the middle of the floor.
The Knicks got two days of rest before this matchup, but still have Karl-Anthony Towns as questionable on the injury report due to a sprained thumb. The big man is crucial to their offense, and Josh Hart has joined him as questionable with a neck stinger. Hart will likely be able to battle through the injury, as his determination will allow him to play through the pain. However, with the Knicks playing again tomorrow against the lowly Nets and then having a full week off, I expect Towns to sit this one out and heal up for the late-season playoff push. That leaves the bulk of the New York offense on the back of Jalen Brunson, but he will struggle against the active hands of Daniels and Young on the perimeter. Instead, I am expecting a majority of the Knicks offense to run through Mikal Bridges.
The Knicks offense relies on ball movement when Towns and Brunson open up the floor with their screen and roll game. Hart and Anunoby are more than capable of drilling their own shots, but they struggle to create their own offense when the shot clock starts ticking down. The Hawks greatest defensive attribute is cutting passing lanes, and that will prevent New York from getting their usual ball movement around the horn. However, Mikal Bridges is a very different style of player, and he is poised for a big afternoon against the Hawks. He can create his own offense and will not hesitate to pull up in the mid range when he is left open. His points line is at 18.5 points, but we can take him to get 20+ Points at +120 odds instead. The extra value on the +120 odds is far superior to the -110 odds, and we only risk a potential loss if Bridges finishes with exactly 19 points. He has cleared this line in 7 of his last 14 games, and this is the perfect high scoring matchup for him to add to that total.
For the second bet of the evening, we will be sprinkling on both the Knicks (-6) point spread, and the Knicks moneyline. New York will prioritize shutting down Atlanta on the offensive glass, and they should be able to limit their high percentage looks inside. There will be no shortage of motivation for the Knicks, and the extra rest combined with home court advantage will allow them to pick up the win and cover.
Pick: Mikal Bridges 20+ Points 7 Units
Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -260 4 Units
Pick: New York Knicks (-6) 2 Units
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