Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/17/2025

The second Atlantic Division matchup is going to be the most entertaining series in the Eastern Conference as the Lightning and Panthers will square off in the Battle for Florida. Tampa Bay finally pulled ahead of Florida in the standings, late in the season, but these two teams are pretty even. They split the regular season series 2-2 with the Lightning posting a +5-goal differential in the series. Tampa Bay will look to dethrone the defending champions here in the first round of the playoffs.

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Team Summaries

With one more game remaining on their regular seasons schedule, the Tampa Bay Lightning have cemented themselves in second place of the Atlantic Division standings. They have 102 points on the season and their +79-goal differential is the second-best mark in the NHL behind the Winnipeg Jets. Tampa Bay leads the league in scoring as they are averaging 3.60 GF/G while also getting solid special teams play. Their 26.2% PP% is the fifth best mark in the league and their 81.5% PK% is seventh best. Their 2.62 GA/G ranks fourth in the league while their .914 SV% is the second-best mark, again, behind Winnipeg. Despite playing in just 77 games this season, Nikita Kucherov will finish as the league leader with 121 points. He tallied 37 goals and 84 assists this season, while recording a +/- rating of +24. Brandon Hagel finished second on the team with 90 points and 35 goals. Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel followed, but Point (42 goals) and Guentzel (41 goals) led the team in goals. Blueline Victor Hedman also turned in a nice season with 66 points with 55 of them being assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy returned to his dominating form this season as he allowed just 2.18 GA/G across 63 appearances this season. He posted a 38-20-5 record and recorded a .921 SV%.

The Panthers have struggled down the stretch and not only lost their chance of winning the division, but they now last home ice here in the first round. Despite finishing the season going 3-6-1 in their last 10, Florida managed to record 98 points this season, but they were not the best road team and only produced 42 points away from their home ice. Florida ranks 15th in scoring (3.00 GF/G), 12th in PP% (23.5%), 10th in PK% (80.7%), and seventh in goals allowed (2.72 GA/G). One of the main reasons for their lack of offensive production this season was the team’s inability to stay healthy. Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Aaron Ekblad all played in less than 70 games this season. Tkachuk may miss time here in the first round as well as he still remains on the LT-IR. Sam Reinhart led the team with 81 points and 39 goals while Barkov finished second on the team with 71 points while leading the way with 51 assists. Reinhart, Barkov, Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Bennett were the five Panthers players to reach the 20-goal milestone, with Reinhart being the only one to record more than 25. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed just 2.44 GA/G across 54 appearances this season while posting a 33-19-2 record on the year.

Goalie Matchup

Unfortunately for the Panthers, Vasilevskiy has been nearly unstoppable at home this season. He has allowed just 1.94 GA/G while posting a 26-6-4 record across 36 home start this season. Florida did find a way to beat him though as Vasilevskiy posted a 1-2 record in his three starts against the Panthers this season, allowing six goals on 78 shot attempts. Vasilevskiy knows how to win in the postseason. He has started 110 games in the playoffs throughout his career and has allowed just 2.41 GA/G. However, he has allowed 3.39 GA/G across his last 11 postseason starts.

As for Bobrovsky, he was also significantly better at home this season and he will need to figure out a way to eliminate the noise in this series. He posted a 13-10 record on the road this season while allowing 2.55 GA/G. He went 1-1 against Tampa Bay and allowed four goals on 57 shot attempts in his two starts against the Lightning. Bobrovsky has amassed 88 postseason starts in his career and he is coming off his best postseason performance as he allowed just 2.33 GA/G last postseason.

Skaters to Watch

Tampa Bay Lightning:

Point has five points (3g, 2a) in his four games against the Panthers this season.
Kucherov has 167 points across his 147 career playoff games, though he has just one goal in his last 11 playoff contests.
Guentzel will now appear in the playoffs with his third different team throughout his career. He has 67 points in 69 playoff games.

Florida Panthers:

Barkov recorded only 38% of his points on the road this season while posting a -8 +/- rating in 30 road games.
Verhaeghe and Bennett have combined for just one point in four games against Tampa Bay this season.
With Tkachuk potentially missing the first round, Reinhart will need to find a way to overcome his postseason struggles as he has just 33 points in 55 career playoff games.

Series Pick

The Florida Panthers will be officially dethroned after this first round matchup with Tampa Bay. Even if we see Tkachuk return to the ice, he is not going to be 100% and the depth issues that Florida had heading into the season will shine through here. Tampa Bay has all kinds of stars on this roster, and while they are an aging group, they will pull away with a tough series win here. Vasilevskiy will figure out his recent postseason struggles and will shut down the average Panthers offense while he lets Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, and Hagel get it done in front of him. Without Tkachuk, this Florida team is not as physical or explosive. Tampa Bay wins the Battle of Florida and moves on.

My Pick: to Win: Tampa Bay Lightning -102, Series Total Games: Over 5.5 -188, Series Exact Games: 6 Games +190

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Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Series Predictions and Best Bets

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