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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 2/27/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/27/2025

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Alex Ovechkin Washington Capitals

As the season is approaching the home stretch, there is no better time to get your future bets in on the winner of this year’s President’s Trophy, the league’s basement dweller, as well as identifying some frauds who will crack the playoff bracket. In addition to that, as the world follows the Great Eight’s pursuit of becoming the all-time leading goal scorer in NHL history, we will identify some props to cash in on while we await this great feat.

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Great 8 Record Chase

Alex Ovechkin is closing on the all-time goal record, as he is just 12 goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 goals. Despite missing some time with a broken leg, Ovechkin has tallied 30 goals this season and currently has a .69 G/game average. Washington has 23 games remaining. And at Ovechkin’s current goal pace, he should break the record in 17 to 18 games. Currently, Ovechkin has -168 odds to break the record this season, which seems incredibly likely as he is scoring on a much faster rate than every other game. He also has five multi-goal games this season.  The next prop is whether or not his record-breaking goal will be an empty netter or not. Now, you can imagine how poetic it would be for his record-breaking goal to be an empty netter as the puck just floats in slow-motion into the back of the net. At +350 odds, it is worth some couch change. The real fun and value is determining who his opponent is. Now he is on pace to break the record in 17.39 games. His opponent in 17 games is the Chicago Blackhawks (+1020), while his 18th game is against the New York Islanders (+600). Since returning from his injury, his G/game pace is slightly lower than his season average at 0.6 games. At this pace, it would take him 20 games, which would be against the Columbus Blue Jackets (+500). The Blue Jackets and Islanders have a bit of a boost, as they play Washington twice between the final six games of the season. I like for the Great Eight to break the record at home on April 10th against the Carolina Hurricanes (+710).

Will Ovechkin break the record this year? Yes, -168

Who will the opponent be when he records the record-breaking goal? Carolina Hurricanes, +710

Will the record-breaking goal be an empty netter? Yes, +310

Minnesota Mystery

The Minnesota Wild came out of the gates looking like this year’s version of last year’s Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks came out of nowhere last season and were playing like one of the most complete teams in the league and won the division and finished with 109 points. However, they also finished with a +56-goal differential and had 44 regulation wins. That is where the difference sets in and clouds the playoff potential of the Wild. Minnesota’s season is incredibly impressive, and their roster is full of up-and-coming stars. However, at this point in the season, they have a -1-goal differential and have managed just 27 regulation wins and are 13-13-1 on home ice. They currently sit in the final guaranteed spot in the Central Division with 72 points and are two points ahead of the Colorado Avalanche in the standings. The Wild seem to be playoff bound, but their playoff potential is not as high as Vancouver’s was last season. The Canucks had to endure terribly timed injuries that led to an earlier exit than some might have expected. The Wild don’t have that ceiling. Minnesota ranks 21st in GF/G, averaging just 2.85 GF/G, while also ranking 24th with a 19.3 PP%. Their penalty kill is worse than that, as their 70.9% PK% is the second worst mark in the NHL. This doesn’t look great for a team who, at one point in the season, looked unstoppable. Kirill Kaprizov remains on the IR after having a Hart Trophy-caliber start to his season, while their netminder Filip Gustavsson has allowed an average of 3.25 GA/G since the start of the new calendar year after allowing just 2.33 GA/G through the first three months of the season. With their stars absence and their downward trending goaltending, the Wild now have +1400 odds to win the conference, which is seventh in the Western Conference, and they seem like an early playoff exit. Don’t buy into the early season hype.

Presidents Trophy Race

As it currently stands, the Winnipeg Jets sit atop the league standings with 87 points through 60 games. The Washington Capitals follow with 84 points in 59 games, while the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights are tied for third with 76. The defending champion Florida Panthers round out the Top Five with 75 points. So, with 22 to 23 games remaining on the schedule, who is going to dethrone the New York Rangers as winners of the President’s Trophy? The odds are not entirely in line with what the current standings are showing. Winnipeg has the best odds at +100, with the Capitals following at +115. Then there is a significant drop off to Dallas at +1700, Vegas at +3000, and Florida at +5000. Toronto is sandwiched between Vegas and Florida with the fifth best odds at +4700 odds despite currently trailing the Panthers in the standings. Unless Dallas or Vegas gets really hot at some point between now and the end of the regular season, this is just a two-team race between Winnipeg and Washington. Comparing the two, Winnipeg leads the league in GA/G (2.35) while also ranking third in GF/G (3.53). The Jets also lead the league with a 30.9% PP%. Washington, on the other hand, leads the league in GF/G (3.63) and fourth in GA/G (2.56). It is worth noting that the Jets have used an 11-game winning streak to propel themselves to the top spot in the league. And even with that impressive run, they are still just three points ahead of Washington and have played one more game. Washington has the third easiest schedule remaining while Winnipeg has the 10th toughest remaining schedule. It is no doubt that Winnipeg has the most complete roster and an edge in star power, but Washington could steal it with the easy schedule remaining.

My Pick: Washington Capitals, +115

Race to the Basement

Similar to the President’s Trophy, the race to the basement is largely a two-team race thanks to a little life from the Nashville Predators, Pittsburgh Penguins, and the Buffalo Sabres. As of now, the San Jose Sharks are once again in the basement with just 39 points through 60 games played. They have lost seven in a row and carry a league worst -71-goal differential. The Sharks have -420 odds to finish in last place in the league for the second straight year. The Chicago Blackhawks are outside the basement door with 41 points through 59 games and they have lost their last five contests and have a -52-goal differential which is the second worst mark in the NHL. The Blackhawks have +310 odds to finish in last place in the NHL standings. Both teams are hard to watch as they build around their young stars in Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini. Both teams are limited on their trade chips, especially since the Sharks have already traded Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci to the Dallas Stars and have already moved on from their goalie earlier in the season. Chicago has Seth Jones and Teuvo Teravainen to dangle in the trade market, but I don’t expect those moves to bring Chicago down to the Sharks level. San Jose is in a tier of their own with the worst goaltending group in the league and an offense that is averaging just 2.57 GF/G.

My Pick: San Jose Sharks, -420

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