Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 1/24/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/24/2025

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Macklin Celebrini San Jose Sharks

As we are set to enter another wonderful weekend of hockey, let’s take a look at a few league betting notes and trends to keep an eye on. The Calder Trophy competition has heated up as another skater and maybe even a netminder has closed the gap on Macklin Celebrini. The New York Rangers might be the hottest team in the league right now and are right back in the playoff conversation thanks to some new life in the locker room. Vancouver has struggled to replicate their magical regular season from last year and are now on the outside looking in at the playoffs. Without further ado, here are some notes to follow before the weekend.

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Calder Competition

Even with an injury early in the season, the Calder Trophy has always been Celebrini’s award to lose. He has been the favorite since he was drafted by the Sharks, and his current odds sit at -135. At different points in the season, we have seen different contenders close the gap on Celebrini. Logan Stankoven had a hot start to the season, but now the Stars youngster has just the eighth best odds at +30000. Matvei Michkov, Lane Hutson, and Dustin Wolf are other names that have tried to catch up to Celebrini. Michkov once seemed like the only true contender besides Celebrini. However, thanks to a devastating cold stretch, he has fallen well out of the race. Michkov has recorded just 15 points in his last 24 games, including just five in the month of January. Michkov now has the fourth best odds at +2900. Wolf has been a true standout this season, as he has kept the Flames in the playoff picture up to this point in the season. Through his 26 appearances, he has allowed just 2.49 GA/G and has posted a 17-7-2 record. His GA/G mark ranks 12th in the league, while his .918 SV% is fourth amongst goalies with at least 20 starts. If he can sustain this performance and get the Flames in the playoffs, Wolf could win the Calder, and at +1100 odds he deserves a flier. Hutson currently leads all rookies in points with 39, and he is also the team leader in assists with 36. He sits right behind Celebrini at +140, but the real crushing statistic for Hutson’s Calder hopes is he has appeared in nine more games than Celebrini but only has four more points. It will come down to Celebrini, Hutson, and Wolf, but Celebrini will take home the award.

Wild Card Races

Eastern Conference: New York Rangers 52 points, -104 To Make the Playoffs

Believe it or not, the new year has brought new life to this New York Rangers team. They have gone 8-1-3 in January and are currently riding a 10-game point streak. As a result of their strong performance to start the month, the Rangers now sit just one point out of the second wild card spot, and they now have a +2-goal differential on the season. A lot of this can be credited to Igor Shesterkin returning from injury. They have gone 6-0-1 in his last seven starts, and the Rangers have allowed just 10 goals over his starts. The offense has also heated up, as they have averaged 3.67 GF/G since the start of January, which is way up from their 3.0 GF/G season average. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Columbus Blue Jackets hold the wild card spots, each with 53 points, and the Rangers currently hold the tiebreaker against the Blue Jackets, having won the lone game between the two this season. However, the Rangers have revitalized their season and are performing to the standard we had for them before the start of the season. If they keep this up and add some depth at the deadline, they will be right in the thick of things. And with Shesterkin locking down the crease, they will be a tough out for any team come playoff time.

My Pick: The Rangers will make the playoffs, -104

Western Conference: Vancouver Canucks 50 points, +112 To Make the Playoffs

The Western Conference first team out is trending in the complete opposite direction of where they would want to be. The Canucks are 2-6-2 over their last 10 games and have been shutout twice during that stretch. Thatcher Demko has returned to the ice, but not in the way Vancouver fans had hoped for. Demko is allowing 3.47 GA/G throughout his 12 starts this season and has a lowly .867 SV%. Demko led the Canucks to surprising heights over the course of the regular season last year as the Canucks paired his elite goaltending with their sixth ranked offense that averaged 3.4 GF/G. And while Demko’s return has been a disappointment, so has the Canucks offense. Vancouver ranks 24th in scoring as they are averaging just 2.81 GF/G which is a huge drop from last years performance and a lot of this has to be put on JT Miller and Elias Pettersson’s shoulders. Whatever turmoil the Canucks have been dealing with in the locker room has led to down years for Miller and Pettersson and Brock Boeser and offseason addition Jake DeBrusk haven’t been picking up the slack offensively. Despite all this, the Canucks remain just three points behind the Flames for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. They can thank the Nashville Predators for making the wild card race in the Western Conference weak, but the Canucks need to do get busy ahead of the trade deadline if they wish to make the playoffs again this season.

My Pick: The Canucks will miss out on the playoffs, -142

Overs Galore

Last week, we checked in on the top three teams in the NHL at covering the spread and the top three teams you should be fading. This week, we will look at the teams who have hit the over the most this season. Believe it or not, the team with the lowest GA/G mark has the most overs in the NHL at this point in the season. Despite only allowing 2.38 GA/G, the Washington Capitals have hit the over in 30 of their 48 games this season. Their offense does rank second in the league in scoring as they are averaging 3.54 GF/G, and they have a Top 10 PP%. However, despite their season long performance at hitting the over, the Capitals have seen the south side of the game total in each of their last eight games. Logan Thompson has really improved his playing in January as he has allowed just 12 goals over his last eight starts and has recorded two shutouts during this stretch. The Capitals may be the league leaders, but they are clearly trending in the opposite direction, so it’s best to set your sights on the Chicago Blackhawks and Buffalo Sabres. The Blackhawks are right behind Washington as they have hit the over in 29 of their 47 games this season, while the Sabres have seen the over in 28 of their 46 games. This gives the two teams a combined 61.3% Over% on the year. Chicago ranks 29th in GA/G while Buffalo ranks 30th as the teams are allowing 3.43 and 3.44 GA/G. Buffalo is also averaging 3.02 GF/G and while this is nothing to brag about, it does help that their offense aids their poor goaltending in the pursuit of the over. If you like high scoring games, pay attention to the Blackhawks and Sabres.

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Start:	January 24, 2025 @ 9:00 PM
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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 1/24/2025

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