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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 1/17/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/17/2025

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

We are all fully immersed in the 2024-25 hockey season as the playoff picture is starting to take shape and the rumor mill is starting to heat up. Thanks to an injury, the Hart Trophy race is wide open, and there is even a goalie in the mix. The Great 8 somehow defied science and returned from a broken leg in just a little over a month, as he is determined to break the all-time goal record this season. With all this and more, let’s have some fun with significant betting odds and trends to follow for the remainder of the season.

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Hectic Hart Race

It wasn’t long ago that Kirill Kaprizov seemed to have the Hart in hand. Now he has slipped down to the fifth favorite for the award with the NHL points leader, two Edmonton Oilers, and a goalie slotting in ahead of him. Nathan MacKinnon is currently the betting favorite for the award with +280 odds. Behind him, in order, are Connor McDavid (+300), Leon Draisaitl (+320), Connor Hellebuyck (+450), and Kaprizov (+750) to round out the Top Five. MacKinnon leads the league with 72 points, 55 assists, and also ranks 38th in the goals. His +16 +/- rating ranks in the Top 20, while he is the only forward averaging over 23 MPG. McDavid has put himself back into the conversation after missing a couple of games, but it is his teammate who is having the better year, Draisaitl is second in the NHL in points (67) while leading the way with 31 goals and nine game winning goals. His +28 +/- rating is tied for the best in the league, and he is showing off a 21.7% S%. McDavid ranks fourth in the league with 64 points while also ranking fourth in assists. As for Hellebuyck, he has a real shot at being the first goalie to win the Hart Trophy since Carey Price in 2015. Hellebuyck has a 28-6-2 record this season and is allowing just 1.97 GA/G, which is the best mark in the league. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he also leads the league with a .929 SV% and with six shutouts. As for Kaprizov’s fall, his lower body injury has kept him out since December 23. When Price won the award in 2015, he allowed 1.96 GA/G, had nine shutouts, and recorded a .933 SV%. If Hellebuyck keeps it up, he could take home the Hart Trophy this season.

My Pick: Connor Hellebuyck, +450

Great 8 vs The Record

Alex Ovechkin is now just 21 goals away from eclipsing Wayne Gretzky’s 894 career goals record. Ovechkin, now aged 39, has averaged more than 43 goals per season over his 20-year career. The Great 8 was on a hot streak to start the season, as he tallied 15 goals through Washington’s first 18 games this season. Unfortunately, that hot start was cooled as he fractured his fibula on November 18. However, he returned from injury on December 28 and has since tallied six goals. At 21 goals this season and needing another 21 goals to break the record, Ovechkin currently has +172 odds of breaking the record this season. In his 29 games this season, Ovechkin is averaging .72 goals per game. With that average, he is on pace to record another 26.6 goals this season, which means he would break the record this season. However, he has averaged a little more than a goal every other game. If he were to average a goal every other game for the rest of the season, he would record between 18-19 more goals and finish just short of the record. He would need to average .57 goals per game to break the record this season. That is a .15 goal per game decrease than his season average, which includes his return from injury. Alex Ovechkin will break the record this season and be the all-time leader in goals.

My Pick: Yes, +172

The Golden Trio

If you love betting against the spread in the NHL, there are four teams you should be following for the remainder of the season. The current covers leader is the Anaheim Ducks, who are 30-15 ATS this season. Behind the Ducks are the San Jose Sharks, Washington Capitals, and Vegas Golden Knights. However, the Sharks have a terrible goalie situation and have not performed well ATS since trading away Mackenzie Blackwood. In addition to their goalie room, they will also sell some of their offensive contributors for future capital, which means the back half of the season will be ugly for them. Removing the Sharks, you have the Ducks, Capitals, and Golden Knights left as the Top Three teams ATS. The Capitals are 28-17 ATS, while the Golden Knights are 28-16, which ranks third and fourth in the league. If you combine this trio of cover darlings, you have a combined performance of 86-48. That means this trio has covered 64.2% of their games this season, well over the profit line. Another good note to add for this trio is there is just one remaining game between them. Vegas and Anaheim have already played their four games this season, while the Golden Knights have also played both games against Washington, and the Capitals and Ducks just have one more head-to-head matchup. These are the teams to follow if you need some covers.

Profit in the Fade

Now if you want to find some teams to fade, let’s go over the league’s worst teams ATS. The Boston Bruins are in the basement as they have covered just 15 of their 46 games this season. Behind them, are the Colorado Avalanche and Vancouver Canucks, who have just 17 covers at this point in the season. Fading these teams has been a rewarding effort throughout the season, as they are a combined 49-87 ATS this season. The Bruins, Avalanche, and Canucks are covering in just 36% over their games combined this season. To make matters worse, they do not fare any better on home ice. The trio has combined to go 22-46 ATS at home this season, which is just a 32.4% Cover% in front of their fans. You should be fading Boston nearly every game, but if you are smart you can fade all three of these teams and make some money during the back half of the season.

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