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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 1/10/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/10/2025

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Macklin Celebrini San Jose Sharks

The trade deadline is just two months away as teams begin to assess the market and identify holes in their roster. Before the flurry of moves take place, now is a great time to see which rosters are already primed for success and those who are a piece away from a change in their season. In this week’s Friday Roundup, let’s take a look at the betting favorites for the Presidents Trophy and the battle for the league’s basement. In addition to those compelling races, we will analyze two teams on the playoff bubble and what their fates could be.

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Presidents Trophy Race

The Vegas Golden Knights have been the hottest team in the NHL over the last 25 games. They have catapulted themselves to the top of the league standings. With 59 points on the year, the Golden Knights are currently the odds-on favorite to win the Presidents Trophy this season. However, the season is far from over and there are a lot of other teams still in the fold. On the Golden Knights heels are the Winnipeg Jets and the Washington Capitals who have 58 points on the season while the Minnesota Wild and the Toronto Maple Leafs have 56 points. The odds currently favor Vegas as they have +410 odds of winning the trophy, but the Capitals are right behind them with +500 odds. The Dallas Stars (53 points, +700), Edmonton Oilers (53 points, +750), and Winnipeg Jets (+800) round out the Top Five. Washington and Winnipeg both rank in the Top Five in the NHL in GF/G and in GA/G, while Vegas ranks fourth in scoring and sixth in goals allowed. The Dallas Stars are a team to watch though as they are winners of their last six games, have played less games than the teams previously mentioned, and they have a ton of cap space now that Tyler Seguin is on the LTIR. The Stars are allowing just 2.50 GA/G which is tied with the Los Angeles Kings for the lowest in the league. Their offense has not been as great as last year’s, but they still rank inside the Top 10 in scoring and are averaging 3.28 GF/G. However, the Jets have the best value on this list. Yes, they used an historic start to the season to be in the spot that they are in, but they lead the league with a +46-goal differential, they have the best goalie in Connor Hellebuyck in the crease, and they rank third in GF/G, averaging 3.62 GF/G. They are the most complete team right now and a healthy Kyle Connor has made a huge difference for the Jets.

My Pick: Winnipeg Jets, +800

Battle for the Basement

After talking about the race to the top of the league standings, let’s dive into the battle for the basement. This battle features only two contenders with one potential dark horse that carries some incredible value. As of now, the Chicago Blackhawks currently sit alone in the league’s basement with 30 points through their first 41 games. The San Jose Sharks are knocking on the door with just 32 points through 43 games and the Nashville Predators round out the bottom three with 33 points through their first 41 games. The Sharks at -105 are the favorites to claim the basement once again this season with the Blackhawks behind them at +195. Surprisingly, despite their horrid start and likelihood of being sellers at the deadline, the Predators carry +5500 to finish with the league’s worst record. Nashville does have the weapons in place that could spark a resurgent second half, but if they decide to part ways with guys like Ryan O’Reilly (25 points), Steven Stamkos (25 points), or Gustav Nyquist (17 points) then they will see a considerable shift in their odds. Chicago and San Jose will definitely be sellers at the deadline, but the Sharks have already made some moves that will likely result with them in the leagues basement. After trading away Mackenzie Blackwood, the Sharks goaltending is left in terrible standing. The Sharks have allowed 3.77 GA/G in the 13 games since trading Blackwood and are just 3-9-1 during that span. With the league’s worst goaltending and some obvious trade chips, the Sharks will finish with the least number of points in the NHL this season.

My Pick: San Jose Sharks, -105

Playoff Bubble Picture

With teams around the halfway point of the season let’s take a look at the playoff bubble and identify one team in each conference whose fate hangs in the balance over the second half of the season.

Eastern Conference- Detroit Red Wings: 40 points, +520 to make the playoffs

At +520 odds, it seems incredibly unlikely that the Red Wings could make a playoff run. However, they are currently just five points out of finding themselves firmly in the Wild Card picture in the Eastern Conference. Detroit has won five games in a row with a +8-goal differential over their win streak. Through this hot streak they picked up some important wins against Pittsburgh, Columbus, and Ottawa, all of whom are considered bubble teams at the moment. However, it does not take a genius to realize that the Red Wings will miss the playoffs this season. Detroit ranks 25th in scoring as they are averaging just 2.73 GF/G while also ranking 25th in GA/G, allowing 3.20 GA/G. They are great on the man advantage as they are cashing in on 27.4% of their power plays, however their 69.4% PK% is tied for the worst mark in the league. Detroit has no depth, and it is catching up to them as the season progresses. They only have three players with more than nine goals on the season as Lucas Raymond (16), Dylan Larkin (17), and Alex DeBrincat (17) account for 45.9% of their goals scored. Depth issues is a huge problem for a team with little cap space. With those odds, it is always worth a look, but the Red Wings recent hot streak is just providing false hope. This is not a playoff team.

Western Conference- Utah Hockey Club: 41 points, +215 to make the playoffs

Now for the Western Conference, the Utah Hockey Club have been a pleasant surprise on the ice in their inaugural season. With 41 points, they find themselves just five points out of the second Wild Card spot. Utah has gone just 1-5-2 over their last eight games but they have six straight home games on the schedule with opponents like the Sharks, Islanders, and Rangers who all of a lower point total than Utah. The Hockey Club will need to take advantage of this stretch and get things back on track in order to be serious playoff contenders. They rank in the top half of the league in both GF/G and GA/G, but they need someone to take them from being good to being great. Clayton Keller (40 points) and Logan Cooley (35 points) have been great for Utah while Karel Vejmelka has quietly had an incredible season, allowing just 2.43 GA/G in 25 appearances on the season. They have over $4 million they can use at the deadline to make some moves and add to this roster, but it remains to be seen whether or not they want to go all in this season.

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