Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 2/27/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/27/2025

College basketball handicapping roundup Johni Broome Auburn Tigers

As we head into the final week of the regular season, we are set to conclude our College Basketball Friday Roundup series. Our finale will highlight the final Wooden Award update, as Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg compete for the nation’s MVP. In addition to the race between the two stars, we will take a deep dive into the race for the Big 10 regular season title as well as look into the ASUN’s conference tournament that is set to begin next week as well as analyzing whether or not the Georgia Bulldogs have done enough to crack the tournament bracket. Without further ado, let’s end the regular season with some extra money in our pockets before March Madness.

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Wooden Award Update

Broome has been the heavy favorite for the Wooden Award for most of the season. When he had some injury concerns, Flagg emerged as the favorite. However, Broome’s absence was brief, and he is now back as the odds-on favorite to win the award at -220. Flagg trails at +175 as this award has been narrowed to a two-horse race. Broome is leading his top ranked Tigers in PPG (18.8), RPG (11), APG (3.4), BPG (2.5), and is shooting over 50% from the floor. Broome’s 11 RPG ranks fifth in the nation, while his 2.5 BPG is the 10th best mark. Flagg has a slight edge over Broome in terms of scoring, as the freshman is averaging 19.4 PPG. He is also averaging more APG (4.1) than Broome. However, his impact on the boards is significantly less than Broome’s, and he is turning the ball over 2.3 times per game. Flagg does have the edge head-to-head, as Duke beat Auburn earlier this season and Flagg was the games leading scorer, but Broome has sustained his success all season long and now adding that he did it while not being 100% will boost his odds of winning the Wooden Award.

My Pick: Johni Broome, -230

Conference Tourney Odds

With their season ending earlier than most, the Atlantic Sun’s bracket is set, with the Lipscomb Bisons and the North Alabama Lions taking the top two seeds in the bracket. The Bisons are the favorites to win the conference tournament (-155), followed by the Lions (+240), with the third seed Florida Gulf Coast following at +1000. Lipscomb and North Alabama had four conference losses in the regular season as the Bisons lost to Eastern Kentucky twice, Northern Alabama once and Queens once. The Lions fell to Lipscomb, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville, and Queens. It is worth noting that all four of the Lions’ losses were on the road. The Bisons are going to be put on alert if they win their first game as they could potentially face Eastern Kentucky in the semifinals if they can knock off Jacksonville. Thankfully, for Lipscomb, Jacksonville went 2-0 against Eastern Kentucky during the regular season. Meanwhile Northern Alabama could face an early exit as their semifinal game will feature either Queens or FGCU, both of whom knocked off the Lions during the regular season. Lipscomb is the most complete team in the conference, leading the way in PPG differential (+12), PPG allowed (67.2), FT% (78.3%), FG% (47.3%), 3P% differential (+4.5%), and APG (16.4). The ASUN’s tournament allows for campus sites to host, which means if Lipscomb continues to win, they will play at home, however, this favors North Alabama, who went 14-1 at home this season and never lost a home game during conference play. Give me the Lions to keep this tournament in Florence, AL thanks to an early exit by Lipscomb. The Lions have been incredible down the stretch going 8-1 to end the season and they will defend their home court well.

My Pick: Northern Alabama, +240

B10 State Battle

The Big 10 regular season crown could be decided on the final day of the regular season, with the Michigan State Spartans hosting the Michigan Wolverines. The two Michigan schools are tied atop the conference standings at 14-3, with Sparty holding the tiebreaker thanks to a 13-point win in Ann Arbor earlier this season. Thanks to home court advantage and the current head-to-head tiebreaker, the Spartans have the best odds of claiming the regular season title at -310. However, it is entirely possible for Michigan (+210) to find their way to the top of the conference standings. Both teams have three games remaining with two ranked teams. Michigan State closes the final week of the regular season with #11 Wisconsin, Iowa, and #15 Michigan. Michigan closes the regular season with Illinois, #16 Maryland, and #8 Michigan State. Not only do the Spartans control the tiebreaker and home court advantage for that final matchup, but they also have the easier schedule to end the season. It is worth noting that the Wolverines shot just 23.8% from deep in their first contest against Spartans, which is 10.8% less than their season average. However, I don’t think the hype gets to the season finale. I think Michigan is much more likely to lose before that game arrives and even if they don’t, Michigan State can lose a game so long as they beat Michigan who they matchup very well against. Sparty will claim the regular season title, but anything can happen in the conference tournament and both of these schools will make some noise in the Big Dance.

My Pick: Michigan State, -310

Bubble Update

Georgia Bulldogs 17-11 (5-10), To Make the Tournament: Yes, -140 / No, +108

The Georgia Bulldogs were listed as the First Team Out in the most recent update to ESPN’s Bracketology. The Bulldogs have built an impressive resume despite having a losing record in the SEC. Georgia picked up key wins against St. John’s during the nonconference portion of their schedule. The Bulldogs have also picked up ranked wins against Kentucky (won by 13), Oklahoma (won by 10), and Florida (won by five). They also have close losses against Auburn (lost by two) and Mississippi State (lost by one). The Bulldogs are a combined 14-0 against Quad2-4 opponents but are just 3-11 against Quad1 opposition. They currently rank 37th in the NCAA’s NET rankings. The final three games are anything but friendly as they have to travel to Texas and South Carolina and the Bulldogs have a 1-7 road record this season. They end the season hosting Vanderbilt. It could be harder, but Georgia will need to be perfect to end the season and may need to pick up a win or two in the conference tournament. Despite their recent big win against Florida, Georgia will pick up another loss or two and will miss the tournament.

My Pick: No, +108

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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 2/27/2025

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