Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 1/31/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/31/2025

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Ryan Conwell Xavier Muskateers

As the regular season enters the home stretch, we will take a deep dive into two squads on the fringe of the postseason. Xavier currently finds themselves as the First Team Out, while North Carolina has fought their way back in the picture and are currently projected to be in March Madness. In addition to the fringe teams, I will give you my take on the regular season conference win totals of two Blue Bloods. Without further ado, let’s make some money.

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Bubble Update

With just a few weeks left in the regular season, let’s do a deep dive on a couple of teams who have fought their way back into the conversation of earning a spot in the Big Dance in March.

Xavier Musketeers 13-9 (5-6)

The Musketeers had a rough month of December and started slow in January, but they have since picked up the intensity and have now put themselves in a good position to potentially crack the playoff bracket. They are currently the First Team Out, but they have gone 4-2 over their last six games with wins against No. 7 Marquette on the road and No. 19 UConn. Their two losses were both road games as they fell to Creighton by nine and No. 20 St. Johns in overtime. Their resume also includes key wins against South Carolina, Wake Forest, and a 22-point blowout against Seton Hall. Though they have nine losses, they currently don’t have a bad loss, and they only have one loss that was greater than 10 points back in November. The Musketeers are a dangerous team from deep as they lead the Big East in 3P% differential with a +5.1% mark. They are currently shooting over 38% from deep as a team. Ryan Conwell leads the sharpshooting for Xavier as the junior guard is shooting 39.6% from deep and averaging 16.3 PPG on the year. Xavier’s schedule does not feature anymore ranked opponents and if they can continue their hot streak and finish their remaining schedule with a winning record, they should be in a good position to pick up a win in the Big East Tournament and find themselves in the Big Dance.

North Carolina Tar Heels 13-9 (6-4), +175 To Make the Tournament

The Tar Heels are now projected to be part of March Madness as they are currently listed as one of the Last Four In teams. This may come as a surprise after their recent 1-3 stretch where they lost to Stanford, Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh. However, all three of those losses came by a combined 10 points and they still have a winning record in the ACC. Their resume includes significant wins over SMU, UCLA, and Dayton. However, the Tar Heels are just 1-4 against ranked teams this season. The problem has been their defense. The Tar Heels are allowing 76.2 PPG this season which ranks 16th in the conference. They are also allowing opponents to average 10.6 offensive RPG which ranks in the lower half of the conference. RJ Davis has continued to carry the team offensively as he is leading the team with 17.6 PPG and is one of the best free-throw shooters in the nation, averaging over 87% from deep. He will need to step up his game against Duke and for the remainder of the season if he wants to salvage a sport in the tournament. The Tar Heels travel to Duke this weekend and will host their bitter rival to end the regular season. A win in either matchup could be the difference in a tournament berth, or not, for North Carolina.

Regular Season Conference Wins

As we get deeper and deeper into conference play, let’s take a look at two Blue Blood schools and see which side of the regular season conference win total they will be on as we are now just weeks away from the end of the year.

Kentucky Wildcats 15-5 (4-3), O/U 10.5

The Wildcats have managed to keep their heads above water through conference play up to this point. They have impressive wins against Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State but their losses to Georgia and Vanderbilt have impacted their chances of hitting the over on their regular season win total. With 11 games remaining on their schedule, Kentucky would need to go 7-4 in order to hit the over on the win total. Of those 11 games, five are on the road, six are against currently ranked teams, and they have three games remaining that they should win. The Wildcats should have shut down Arkansas, LSU, and South Carolina at home and a home win against a now ranked Vanderbilt team is likely. Running the table at home is vital to the Wildcats hitting the over on their win total as their road games against Ole Miss, Alabama, and Missouri will be far from easy. If they play well in the previously mentioned home games and pull off a victory (or two) on the road against Alabama or at home against Auburn or Tennessee, then the Wildcats should have no issues reaching the over on this win total.

My Pick: Over 10.5, -156

Kansas Jayhawks 15-5 (6-3), O/U 13.5

As for the Jayhawks, they have done well in conference play by winning their last six games against teams not named Iowa State or Houston. In order for the Jayhawks to reach 14 conference wins and hit the over, they would need to go 8-3 to finish the season. With rematches against Iowa State and Houston upcoming, their remaining schedule is not easy. However, they host Iowa State as well as Texas Tech and should cruise to wins in their home games against Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Colorado. The Jayhawks have to travel to Houston to take on the Cougars again, but their first game needed to go to 2OT to figure out the winner and the Jayhawks could steal a big win there in their rematch. Kansas plays solid defense, especially around the perimeter and their ball movement continues to be the class of the league. A healthy Dajuan Harris is going to be key for the Jayhawks as well as he missed their last game against UCF, but at full strength the Jayhawks have the ability to run the table in the Big 12.

My Pick: Over 13.5, -118

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Start:	January 31, 2025 @ 7:40 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 1/31/2025

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