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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 1/3/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/3/2025

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Johni Broome Auburn Tigers

With conference play in full swing this weekend in college basketball, let’s examine the deepest and toughest conference in the country and who will survive the gauntlet SEC schedule. In addition to discussing the SEC field, we will find out if the Wooden Award race is being called early this season and one ACC team who has quietly flown under the radar. Without further ado, let’s get into some of the big news and notes from around the nation.

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Broome or Bust

As we begin the new calendar year, the Wooden Award seems to be favoring one specific player, Johni Broome. About a month ago, the Wooden Award race included Cooper Flagg and Kam Jones, but Broome has since separated himself from the rest of the pack. Broome currently boasts -210 odds to win the Wooden Award this season and is followed by Flagg (+300) and Jones (+750). Broome is currently leading the way for his No. 2 ranked Tigers, as he is averaging 18.2 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.6 BPG, while also shooting 56.1% from the field. Broome ranks 63rd in the country in PPG, fifth in RPG, and 10th in BPG all the while playing against some tough opponents. Jones is averaging more than 20 PPG but is not producing the same way defensively, while Flagg’s numbers are significantly lower than Broome’s. Unless an unexpected injury occurs, or the already nagging shoulder gets worse, Broome has this race won.

Shining SMU Ponies

The SMU Mustangs have had themselves quite a year in athletics. Their football team cracked the playoff picture, and their basketball team is 11-2 and undefeated in ACC play. The Mustangs are currently projected to be in the 11-Seed range for March Madness. However, if they keep playing like they have so far, they will earn a much better seed. The Mustangs have beaten Boston College on the road and Virginia by a combined 38 points and are hosting No. 4 Duke this weekend in what will be a potential for an upset. SMU’s +16.3-point differential average is the second best in the conference, while they lead the conference with an RPG differential of +8.6 with an incredible 13.4 offensive RPG. SMU also ranks 12th in the nation in scoring (87.2 PPG), 19th in 3P% (39.1%). Boopie Miller is the leader offensively with 15.4 PPG and 5.9 APG, but the Mustangs roster extends far beyond Miller. SMU has tremendous depth, with five players averaging double-digit points, six players (with significant minutes) averaging over 35% from deep, and they have three players averaging five or more RPG. The good news for SMU is that they play Duke only once while also playing host to Pittsburgh and Clemson, the two other tough ACC opponents. Duke is the heavy favorite to win the ACC regular season crown at -330. However, if SMU (+1900) is able to win tomorrow and avoid messing up down the stretch they could take the regular season title.

SEC Dominance

The SEC conference is without a doubt the best conference in the country. They currently have 12 teams slotted in the latest Bracketology projections while also having the top two ranked teams, five teams rank in the Top 10, and 10 teams in the Top 25. Auburn is the heavy betting favorite at +130 to win the regular season crown, followed by Tennessee at +290. We have a clean slate in the conference standings before SEC play begins this weekend, so let’s take a deep dive into the toughest conference in college basketball.

Auburn and Tennessee are neck-and-neck in projections and rankings, as the Tigers are the betting favorites. However, the Vols are currently the nation’s top-ranked team. But the Vols can be questioned a bit due to their weaker nonconference schedule. They did beat No. 13 Baylor by 15, but that was the only ranked opponent for Tennessee so far. Auburn, on the other hand, played five ranked teams and went 4-1 with a +32-point differential, and their lone loss was a six-point loss to No. 9 Duke. Even with the loss, their resume is far more impressive than Tennessee’s thanks to their wins against Houston, Iowa State, North Carolina, and Purdue. Auburn also gets the benefit of playing three straight conference games against unranked opponents, a luxury many teams do not have. Auburn also hosts the majority of the ranked teams remaining on their schedule, including one of the best regular season matchups when they take on Tennessee.

Aside from Auburn and Tennessee, you have Alabama (+430), Florida (+1200), and Kentucky (+1100) who also reside in the Top 10. The Crimson Tide went 11-2 in nonconference play (lost to Purdue and Oregon) and picked up wins against Illinois, Houston, and North Carolina. They will begin SEC play with three of their first four games against ranked opponents, and the unranked matchup is a road game against 10-3 South Carolina. Florida, like Tennessee, may be favored because of their weak nonconference schedule. We will get a good look at how Florida really shapes up, as they play three straight games against ranked opponents, with trips to Kentucky and Arkansas while hosting Tennessee. Kentucky has been a confusing team to follow this season as they have big wins against Duke and Gonzaga, but they also have losses to unranked Clemson and a big 20-point loss to Ohio State. Their defense will need to pick it up if they want to remain relevant.

Outside of the SEC’s favored teams, there are plenty of dark horse candidates to follow. The race for the regular season crown is wide open thanks to the conference’s deep make-up, which will inevitably lead to losses across the board, paving the way for some of these overlooked squads. Mississippi State (+4000), Texas A&M (+4000), Texas (+4000), Arkansas (+4500), Ole Miss (+4500), and Oklahoma (+6000) deserve couch change and some attention as a couple of key wins against the favored teams and the odds will change drastically. Buckle up, the SEC regular season will be historic.

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