Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 1/17/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/17/2025

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Adou Thiero Arkansas Razorbacks

With around 50 days left in the regular season, the college basketball landscape is starting to take shape. Duke has run away with the ACC, while the Big East has been reduced to a two-headed monster and the SEC has a new team emerge as a National Championship contender with every game. Auburn has lost their star player in Johni Broome, as he is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. And with that, Cooper Flagg has emerged as the new Wooden Award favorite. Creighton and Arkansas are fighting for their lives, and Iowa State continues to dominate the Big 12. With all of this and more, let’s take a look at some betting numbers from around the nation.

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Bubble Update

As we approach the month of February, let’s do a deep dive on a couple of teams who have been trending in opposite directions since conference play began.

Creighton Bluejays: 11-6 (4-2) / To Make the Tournament: -230

After a 7-4 showing in nonconference play and only one significant win where they beat Kansas by 13, the Bluejays have turned things around in conference play and now find themselves right back in the playoff picture. As of now, Creighton is currently slated as the last team in so there is still work to be done in order to secure their spot in March. Six losses is a lot, but their nonconference schedule featured the likes of Alabama and Texas A&M among others. Creighton shoots 46.9% as a team which is the third best in the conference and Ryan Kalkbrenner has continued to lead the way averaging 17.8 PPG while shooting 66.7% from the floor and 44% from deep. Kalkbrenner has Steven Ashworth (17.3 PPG, 6.6 APG) and Pop Isaacs (16.3 PPG) on the floor with him for over 75% of the game, however, depth is a huge question mark for Creighton as they are getting little production out of their role players. They have a great win over Kansas on their resume, but if they can take down Marquette or UConn at some point in the season while avoiding silly losses, the Bluejays will work their win into the tournament. However, I do not see that happening this season. St. Johns, Villanova, and Georgetown are all teams that are on the same level as Creighton, and I think the Bluejays are going to pick up some more losses along the way.

Pick: They will not make it to March, +168

Arkansas Razorbacks: 11-6 (0-4) / To make the Tournament: +155

John Calipari’s inaugural season with the Razorbacks has not gone as expected. Though they started strong going 11-2 and taking down a ranked Michigan squad, the Razorbacks have lost four in a row to start SEC play. Three of their losses were to be expected as they traveled to Tennessee and hosted Ole Miss and Florida, but their fourth loss to LSU is a resume killer. Arkansas is now 1-6 against Quad 1 opponents and they have many more due up thanks to the deep SEC. Arkansas is averaging 78.1 PPG on the year, but since the start of conference play, they have mustered just 63.8 PPG. They lack a difference maker and outside of Adou Thiero and Boogie Fland there are not a lot of playmakers. Arkansas still has trips to Auburn, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas while hosting the likes of Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi State, and Missouri. The three easiest games remaining on their schedule appear to be LSU (a team they already lost to) and Vanderbilt and South Carolina on the road. The Razorbacks will continue to get buried in the conference standings and they will not make the tournament this season.

Pick: No, -210

Regular Season Conference Wins

With around a quarter of conference play in the past, let’s take a look at two of the nation’s elite schools and see which side of the conference win total they will be on at the conclusion of the regular season.

Duke Blue Devils: 7-0 / O/U: 18.5 / To go Undefeated: Yes, +220

The Blue Devils regular season conference win total is set at 18.5. They are currently undefeated in ACC play thanks to the conference being in a much weaker state than normal. As of now, the conference has no other ranked teams, and the rival North Carolina is having a down year as they are just 12-6 on the season. Duke has seven wins and would need 12 more to hit the over on the conference win total. With 13 games remaining, Duke has little room for error if they want to hit the over. The Blue Devils are playing defense at a high level as they are holding opponents to just 59.3 PPG and just 36.6% shooting. Duke is one of just six teams in the nation that is holding the opposition to less than 60 PPG. They also carry a +6.8% 3P% differential which is the best in the conference and 20th best in the nation. Seven of the 13 games remaining are on the road, but the Blue Devils are 4-0 with a +78-point differential on the road this season. This win total seems like it could come down to the regular season ending game that is on the road against North Carolina. The ACC is weak, and Duke should continue to walk through the conference, and I think they finish their conference schedule without a loss.

Pick: Over, -170

Iowa State Cyclones: 5-0 / O/U: 17.5

They Cyclones are in a similar situation as they are undefeated in conference play, winning five straight, but they play in a much deeper conference. They have already picked up wins against Kansas and Baylor, two of the Big 12’s top teams, but they have road trips to Kansas, Houston, and Arizona remaining on the schedule. The Cyclones have 15 conference games remaining which means they would need to go 13-2 to hit the over on the conference win total. Iowa State is one of, if not the deepest team in the nation and hitting the over is a doable feat for the Cyclones. They are currently averaging over 85 PPG while also leading the conference in SPG differential. They have six players averaging over nine PPG and Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert have been perhaps the most underappreciated players in the country. The second ranked Cyclones have yet to give you a reason to doubt them However, they play in a tough conference, and they could very well lose all three of the aforementioned road games while it is also hard to picture any team avoiding a slip up against the middle of the pack teams in the Big 12. It will be close, but I think the Cyclones will ultimately fall short.

Pick: Under, -192

Wooden Award Chaos

Well, it happened. Broome succumbed to an injury and was absent from the court for Auburn’s last game. Before this injury, he was the heavy favorite to win the award, but now that there is uncertainty surrounding his timeline, Broome has been usurped by Flagg. Flagg is now the betting favorite at -500 while Broome remains second at +500 and Kam Jones is the only other relevant contender at +900. Flagg has not but nearly as productive as Broome this season, but he has been the leader for the Blue Devils. He is leading the team with 18.7 PPG and is shooting 47.8%. He also leads the team with 8.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.2 BPG, and is tied for the team lead with 1.5 SPG. He does turn the ball over more than he would like, averaging nearly three per game, but aside from that Flagg is an accomplished freshman that is dominating at the college level and will now, likely, win the Wooden Award as the nation’s MVP.

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Start:	January 18, 2025 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 1/17/2025

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