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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 1/10/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/10/2025

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Mackenzie Mgbako Indiana Hoosiers

Conference play is in full swing. The SEC seems to be putting out Top 25 matchups each time out, while we have had some big upsets occur over the last week. Florida exposed Tennessee, while Villanova knocked off UConn which gave the Huskies their fourth loss of the season. Georgia beat Kentucky, Arizona beat West Virginia, and it is just complete chaos around the nation right now. With all that noise, let’s dig into some betting trends from around the country while also taking a look at some bubble teams and one of the most underrated conference races this season.

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Bubble Update

With conference play in full swing, let’s do a deep dive on a couple of teams who have worked their way to the bubble and hope to continue to make their push to return to the Big Dance this spring.

Indiana Hoosiers – 13-3 (4-1), To Make the Tournament: +122

After some lofty preseason expectations, the Hoosiers are now fighting on the bubble to secure a spot in March Madness. After failing to pick up any meaningful nonconference wins, the Hoosiers now have to dominate the conference and make a run in the conference tournament later in the year. All three of Indiana’s losses were by 16 or more points and the losses came to No. 3 Gonzaga, Louisville, and Nebraska all of which were away from home. Their best win was a road win at Penn State, another team on the bubble, but they lack the wins to balance out the three blowout losses. They are 11-0 at home, which plays to their advantage as they will soon play host to No. 13 Illinois, No. 24 Michigan, No. 22 UCLA, and No.  20 Purdue. They will need to go through those ranked teams with a winning record in order to build a resume worthy of being selected. They also have three more ranked teams to play, but those will be road games and winning any of those could also give the Hoosiers a big boost. They currently carry +122 odds to make the tournament, but with no impressive wins and some questionable depth, the Hoosiers are likely going to find themselves in the NIT.

Saint Mary’s Gaels - 14-3 (4-0), To Make the Tournament: +144

The Gaels are off to a strong start in the West Coast Conference as they are 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 21.3 PPG and they have won each of their last three games by 23 or more points. The Gaels also picked up some key nonconference wins like a 71-36 win over USC as well as wins against Nebraska and on the road against Utah. Their three losses aren’t great by any means, but unlike Indiana (who was blown out in all three of their losses) the Gaels lost those games by an average of 4.3 points. One of those losses came in overtime against Boise State while their biggest loss was by seven against Utah State. Now with that being said, the do not have an overly impressive win on their resume and they will have just two chances to get a big win during conference play. As always, they will take on Gonzaga twice this season and the Gaels will likely need to split the season series while also making a deep run in the conference tournament to get into March Madness. Their road is much easier than that of the Hoosiers and I think the Gaels are a steal right now with odds at +144. They control their own destiny and if they can avoid slipping up Saint Mary’s will be in the tournament.

Conference of Overs

The greatest thing about modern sports betting is the possibilities are endless. We can bet on almost any given aspect of a sporting event. The data is out there and so is the money. Instead of focusing on just one aspect of the game, one player prop, or just one team, how about a whole conference? It is no lie that high scoring games on the court leave us on the edge of our seats. Now the SEC and Big 12 leave us wanting more with their tough competition, but it is the Summit League that is seemingly having shootouts night in and night out. Now the Summit League is no power conference and will likely only have its winner to represent them in March, but for now they are a dream conference for those who like to bet the over. Of the nine-team conference, only two teams have seen the under hit more than the over. As a conference, Summit League teams have hit the over in 80 of their 129 games this season which is over 62% of the time. Kansas City and Omaha are the two teams that have seen the south side of the game total more frequently as the two schools have combined for just 11 overs in their 28 games thus far. If you take those two schools out of the equation, then the conference has hit the over in over 79% of their games. South Dakota is atop the conference with 12 overs in 14 games while North Dakota State and St. Thomas (MN) have each hit the over in 12 of their 15 games on the season. North Dakota is right on their heels with 11 overs in 15 games. Since conference play has begun, the Summit League teams have hit the over in 18 of their combined 24 games. This conference is an over bettors dream conference.

MACtion

As mid is in the name, the Mid-American Conference is always just full of average, middle of the pack teams. The conference of 12 boasts just two teams with double-digit wins so far this season and carries five with losing records and just five with records over .500. Despite the mere mediocrity of the conference, the MAC will give us one of the best conference races both in the regular season and again in the tournament. They have some of the closest odds out of the conferences around the college basketball landscape. Akron leads the way with +175 odds, and they are 2-0 in MAC play and 9-5 overall on the year. On their heels are the Bobcats of Ohio who have +230 odds and are 2-0 in conference play and 8-6 overall. Kent State (+550), Miami (OH) (+550), and Toledo (+750) round out the top five best odds of claiming the conference regular season crown. The RedHawks at +550 deserve a look as they are 10-4 on the season and they lead the conference with 83 PPG, while also shooting 40.2% from beyond the arc which not only leads the MAC conference, but it also ranks eighth in the country. Their perimeter play on the other end of the court isn’t great as they are allowing opponents to shoot over 37%, but their +2.5 SPG differential is the best mark in the conference, and they limit opponents to just 7.9 offensive RPG which is the lowest out of MAC teams. The RedHawks may have tremendous value, but if you want to ride with the favorite than Akron is a good choice and has a good odds value at +175.

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