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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 18: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 1/2/2025

Best NFL teaser bets Week 18 Sam Darnold Minnesota Vikings

Welcome to the wacky Week 18 of the NFL regular season. With just one game to play, just two playoff spots remain. Some teams may be tanking to keep a draft pick like the New England Patriots, who were recently gifted the honor from the clueless New York Giants. We also have some players, like the Eagles' Saquon Barkley, who has the opportunity to break a single-season rushing record but will be resting instead. Then, some players will be striving for bonuses related to their statistical season totals.

A lot is happening here, so let's allow the madness to work for us instead of against us. We've given the market some time to stabilize after the numbers have opened all over the place.

By teasing games, we are letting the parity of the NFL help us out instead of always seeming to take chunks off our bankroll.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay where you can manipulate the betting odds. In return, the sportsbooks lower the payout considerably. However, over 25% of all NFL games are decided with a margin of victory range of 1-7 or 2-8 points.

There’s a basic strategy you can use to take advantage of teasing through key numbers.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The basic strategy is to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7 with a two-team, 6-point NFL teaser. Those are all requirements. College games won't work because the variance is too high, and scores are also higher. I rarely recommend a parlay, but it will only have two legs if I do. The same goes for your basic strategy teaser. We use 6-point teasers because they give us the best bang for our buck to tease through 3 and 7.

To tease an underdog up, we find teams with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5), and after adding the 6 points, they'll be dogs of more than a touchdown at (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Inversely, to tease a betting favorite down, we look for teams with betting odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5), and after the tease, we have them under a field goal at (-1.5) to (-2.5).

Potential Week 18 NFL Teaser Games

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) Total: 48

Even though the Pittsburgh Steelers are in the playoffs and the Bengals are on the outside looking in with just an 8% chance, it somehow feels like these are two teams heading in opposite directions; only the Bengals are trending up and the Steelers down.

Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith doesn't run the most sophisticated schemes, and it may have caught up with them at the wrong time.

The moonball is always there, and we would get Mike Tomlin as a home underdog. The total is high, however, and we're looking for a lower projected point total. Your 6 points count for more in a lower-scoring game.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New England Patriots (+2.5) Total: 38

Speaking of a likely low-scoring game, the total here is just 38. I did hear, though, that Josh Allen will be playing. Maybe it’s just for the first half.

The elephant man in the mirror, though, is the Pats' current grip on the 1st pick in the upcoming draft.

We have the low total we're looking for, but how can you trust either team in this spot?

Carolina Panthers (+8.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) Total: 48

The Atlanta Falcons will be in with a win and a Tampa loss. The chances that Baker Mayfield lets his band of Buccaneers lose to the Saints on Sunday is 10%, at least according to the sportsbooks. And with the point spread at 13.5, it's getting hard to trust the Falcons' reaction to that.

Michael Penix Jr. is locked in, though.

The Falcons aren’t a bad leg for our basic strategy teaser.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (-2.5) Total: 58

The game of the week this Sunday night couldn't get any better. The winner takes the #1 seed and a bye, and the loser, even though they'll have the 2nd best record in the NFC, will drop to the 5th seed.

Many people are taking the Minnesota Vikings to win the game outright, and I'm almost there myself. Getting them at (+8.5) feels good, even with the high point total.

New York Giants (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) Total: 37.5

Do I want to bet on the New York Giants after their incredibly emotional win last week? No, not really. The Eagles won't give it nearly 100%, and the point total is very low. Don't even think about it, though.

NFL Week 18 Basic Strategy Teaser Prediction

Minnesota Vikings (+8.5) and Atlanta Falcons (-2.5): -120

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