Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Best Bets for NBA Championship Longshots

by Spencer Toth - 3/13/2025

Best bets for NBA Championship longshots Ja Morant Memphis Grizzlies

A handful of teams have emerged as the NBA Championship favorites. The Celtics and Thunder lead the way with +180 and +200 odds respectively, and just six teams have championship odds of +2000 or shorter. This means several playoff teams with long championship odds have the potential to pay out a massive payout. Last year, the 10th best team had +2800 odds heading into the postseason, and this year they have +11000 odds. Here are the sleeper picks for the 2025 NBA playoffs worthy of a small sprinkle for the chance at a huge reward. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

New York Knicks +2600

Many NBA pundits would hesitate to call the New York Knicks an NBA sleeper pick, but the +2600 odds imply the oddsmakers are giving them little to no chance of making a deep playoff run. The Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers are more well-rounded than New York, but the talent gap is not nearly as wide as these odds suggest. 

New York’s offense runs through Jalen Brunson, who is sidelined with a sprained ankle. He is expected to be back at the end of the month and will still have a couple of weeks to regain his form before the postseason. New York currently sits in third place in the East and 10 games out of the play-in tournament, so there is no concern there. New York’s starting five is one of the best in the league, but they lack the depth to make a deep playoff run. Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson are not good enough to be players #6 and #7 on a championship team, and head coach Tom Thibodeau cannot play his starters 48 minutes on a nightly basis (although he has tried).

However, the Eastern Conference is wide open, and the Knicks are more than capable of pulling off an upset or two against the regular season leaders. As Brunson remains sidelined, this price will drop in the coming weeks, but this is one you will certainly want to lock in before the playoffs get underway. 

Upset Potential: 4/5 

Memphis Grizzlies: +6000

The Grizzlies have been forced to deal with injuries this season, and it feels as though the league has yet to see what this team is truly capable of. Ja Morant is an explosive guard, while Jarn Jackson Jr. is one of the best interior defenders in the league. Memphis also has Desmond Bane to fire in shots from deep and the towering Zach Edey to patrol the paint. 

The Grizzlies certainly have the talent needed to succeed, but this simply doesn’t feel like this will be the year they can put it all together. They have been unable to build the chemistry needed to make a deep playoff run due to injuries, and the rest of the West has emerged from the regular season relatively unscathed. Their ability to crash the glass has led to countless extra possessions, and the Grizzlies do have a top 10 defensive and offensive rating. However, the lack of playoff experience combined with their woeful 15.4 turnovers per game will see them exit in the first two rounds this postseason. 

Upset Potential: 1/5

Milwaukee Bucks: +6500

The Milwaukee Bucks will always have a chance to make a deep playoff run with Giannis Antetokounmpo on their roster. Antetokounmpo is putting up the inhuman numbers he has in previous seasons despite taking far fewer shots than before. He has been forced to share the ball with Damian Lillard, and Antetokounmpo has gotten more efficient as a result. His partnership with Brook Lopez in the paint has allowed the Bucks to clog the interior, but that may not be the recipe for success in the Eastern Conference. 

The Bucks have a real problem with slowing down dominant guards, and the other contenders in the East will shred them apart. Damian Lillard and Taurean Prince are not going to be making the All-NBA defensive team anytime soon, and they lack the stability to prevent Tatum and Brown, or Mitchell and Garland, from having big nights. Antetokounmpo can will his team over the line, but doing so in multiple seven-game series is too much to ask. If the Bucks were in the West, they would have a better chance, but unfortunate matchups mean their ceiling is capped. It is still hard to turn down +6500 with a healthy Antetokounmpo, but this isn’t the slam dunk play it appears to be. 

Upset Potential: 3/5 

Minnesota Timberwolves: +11000

The Minnesota Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals last season, and it is shocking to see them with +11000 odds at this stage of the year. They are sitting in 7th place in the West but are riding a five-game win streak to move within half a game of 6th place. Minnesota made headlines when they traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in the offseason. Towns has excelled in New York, while injuries have kept the new pair of Timberwolves on the sidelines. Both are back in action for the last month of the season, and this is a team capable of making a deep postseason run. 

Anthony Edwards is one of the best playoff performers in the league, and the defense from Rudy Gobert turns the Timberwolves into a very well-rounded team. They have DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker coming off the bench, and have an 8- or 9-man rotation that is capable of putting up heavy playoff minutes. Minnesota is built to take down the Nuggets (+1400), and the inexperienced Thunder (+200) will struggle to match the intensity from the Timberwolves. I can’t say Minnesota will completely steamroll the Lakers (+1300) or Warriors (+2000), but these quartet of teams have vastly different odds than the Timberwolves. There has never been a better longshot pick to make in the NBA than the Timberwolves this season, and this is one you must lock up immediately. 

Upset Potential: 5/5 

Los Angeles Clippers: +120000

The Clippers have Kawhi Leonard on their roster, and he has already shown he can carry a team to an NBA Championship. The support from James Harden and a rejuvenated Norman Powell will also go a long way, but the problem is it is hard to imagine all three staying healthy over a two-month playoff period. A healthy Clippers team has the potential to challenge for an NBA title, but Kawhi has played only 23 games this season and hasn’t played 70 games in nearly a decade. The Clippers fans will be left wondering ‘what if’ once again, as the Clippers crash out in the opening round of the playoffs. 

Upset Potential: 0/5

Orlando Magic: +600000

It isn’t often you will find a 600-1 payout on a playoff team, but the Magic are worth a couple dollars this season. Orlando got dealt a huge blow when Jalen Suggs was ruled out for the season, but they still have a winning combination in Orlando. Paolo Banchero is capable of putting the team on his back offensively, and the Magic have one of the best defenses in the league. I wouldn’t have this team penciled in as a contender with even odds, but considering a $10 bet pays $6,000, it is hard to find better value anywhere else on your sportsbook. A first-round victory will see these odds get dramatically slashed, and it could happen given how dominant Orlando is on the defensive end. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Magic get bounced in the play-in tournament, but you shouldn’t need much convincing to tail a truly elite defense with odds like these. 

Upset Potential: 2/5

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers