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Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Weekend Series Predictions with Odds and Analysis

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/25/2025

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks series predictions Brandon Pfaadt

This week’s MLB Weekend Series Preview will take a deep dive into the Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks series this weekend. Atlanta will travel to Arizona for a three-game set as the Braves look to climb out of the bottom spot in their division while the Diamondbacks look to stave off injuries and keep pace with the top three teams in their division. Let’s break down the series and see which team will walk away as victors.

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Where They Stand

The Atlanta Braves have limped through their first 24 games of the season. They are currently sitting in last place in the NL East Division with a 10-14 record and a -12-run differential. It is hard to single out just one problem for the Braves as they are struggling as a team this season both at the plate and on the mound. They currently rank 24th in the league with a 4.38 ERA while ranking just 23rd in runs scored as they are averaging a mere 3.83 runs per game. They have struggled on the road this season going just 2-11 away from home and they have already been swept in two separate series on the west coast as they opened up the season on a 0-7 stretch after two series against the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna have been carrying the weight at the plate as they two have combined to produce over 28% of their team’s RBIs this season. Outside of the two sluggers, the lineup has continued its weak production that we saw last season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have benefited from having one of the highest producing lineups this season. The team currently ranks third in the league with 135 runs through 25 games. The lineup has carried them to a 14-11 start, though they are in just fourth place in the NL West. It has been their pitching staff that has had the issues as Arizona ranks 21st in the league with a 4.28 ERA. The Diamondbacks have allowed 36 runs over their last five games. Brandon Pfaadt is the lone starting pitcher to have a sub-4.00 ERA this season as Eduardo Rodriguez, Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, and Merrill Kelly have a combined 4.70 ERA this season compared to Pfaadt’s 2.73 mark. Arizona does have a trio performing at an elite level coming out of the bullpen as Shelby Miller, Jalen Beeks, and Justin Martinez have combined for a 0.20 ERA across 33.2 innings this season while combining for two saves and 10 holds. Corbin Carroll has found his MVP caliber self to start the year as he has clubbed nine homeruns while stealing five bases and posting a 1.065 OPS so far.

Team Betting Notes:

Atlanta Braves:

  • The Braves are 2-11 straight up and 4-9 ATS on the road this season.
  • The Braves have hit the over in six of their 13 road games this season.
  • The Braves have averaged just 2.85 runs per game on the road this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

  • The Diamondbacks are 6-7 ATS at home this season.
  • The Diamondbacks have hit the over in just four of their 13 home games this season.
  • The Diamondbacks have allowed 4.4 runs per game at home this season.

Player Highlights:

Atlanta Braves:

  • Jarred Kelenic continues to struggle as he has managed a lowly .531 OPS to start the season and has just 10 hits across his first 60 at-bats.
  • Riley leads the team with 32 strikeouts this season, but he is also averaging 2.13 total bases per game, which also leads the team.
  • Daysbel Hernandez has been one of the few surprises for the Braves this season as he has a 2.38 ERA across 11.1 innings this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

  • Josh Naylor has enjoyed the beginning of his Arizona tenure as the slugging first baseman is hitting .323 and has tallied 17 RBIs through the first 25 games of the season.
  • Eugenio Suarez has been boom or bust for Arizona so far. He is second on the team in homeruns with six, but he is just hitting .159 and has 30 strikeouts through his first 88 at-bats.
  • Carroll is joined by Geraldo Perdomo inside the Top 10 in the MLB in WAR. The two have combined to post a 3.0 WAR so far this season.

Game 1 Preview – Chris Sale (0-2, 6.17 ERA) vs Zac Gallen (1-3, 5.60 ERA)

Sale will be looking to get back on track with this start against Arizona. He has posted a 5.65 road ERA this season with two of his three road starts coming on the west coast. Arizona has not seen much of Sale with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. having the most plate appearances against the southpaw (24) while he has just a .208 AVG against him. As for Gallen’s career against the Braves, both Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have sustained success against the former ace. Beeks is having forearm issues which takes away one of the Diamondbacks top relievers for the near future. Atlanta has performed significantly better at the plate against right-handed pitching so far this season which bodes well for them not only here, but for the whole series as they are set to clash with three right-handed starters. Look for their bats to get going as they reverse the road performance in this series. Gallen has a 6.75 home ERA, and he struggles mightily against lefties. Look for Matt Olson and Michael Harris to be big producers in this game.

My Pick: Atlanta Braves -135, Over 8.5 -105

Game 2 – Grant Holmes (2-1, 3.22 ERA) vs Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.73 ERA)

Game 3 – Spencer Schwellenbach (1-1, 2.56 ERA) vs Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 2.73 ERA)

Series Picks: The Braves need to get going at the plate and this is just the series for that against an underperforming starting rotation. Taking this series would be a big confidence booster for a team that was expected to be amongst the best in the league. The Diamondbacks have been producing at the plate so expect there to be a lot of runs scored in this series. However, the pitching is in a funk for Arizona and these two teams are currently trending in different directions, with the Braves winning five of their last six games. The Diamondbacks will be missing Ketel Marte, which weakens the lineup while reliever A.J. Puk is also on the shelf. Expect Atlanta to get things going against an ailing Arizona team. Braves will take the series.

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