Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Week 12 NFL Odds - Lookahead Lines - Picks & Best Bet Predictions

by Mike Allen - 11/13/2024

NFL Week 11 lookahead lines and odds Bo Nix Denver Broncos

Each week around 3:00 PM Eastern, the sportsbooks release the lookahead betting lines for the following week's NFL action. That is different from the opening lines, which are released on Sunday night for the upcoming week.

Betting the lookahead lines can actually be more profitable than you think. I understand that major injuries, among other things, can completely change the outlook of a game. You can get burned by those big injuries, but outside of that, the differences in the lookahead lines and the opening lines are mostly recency bias.

I've heard old-school handicappers say they would be much more profitable if they didn't know the results from the previous week's slate of games.

My hypothesis is the positive expected value, along with the absence of recency bias, will lead to us making money in the long term, just on our lookahead lines best bets. It's working so far this year. We've hit 2 of 3 best bets in consecutive weeks, and we're on the right side of the line movement, giving us positive EV nearly 80% of the time.

For example, last week, we had the Lions (-2.5) and the Steelers/Commanders Over 44.5. Detroit closed as a 4-point favorite and won by 3. The Steeler/Commander total closed at 45.5, and the game ended at 55. We had the Dolphins/Rams over 49. The number closed at 50. Unfortunately, though, the teams managed just 38 points between them.

In last week's article, we tipped the Colts and Steelers both at (+3.5) and the Vikings at (-6). The Minnesota line has yet to move, but if it does, it will be in the direction of the favorite. The Steelers line is now at (+3) and the Colts at (+4).

Now, let’s look at our best bets for the NFL Week 12 lookahead lines, as well as the odds for the rest of the slate.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

NFL Week 12 Lookahead Lines Best Bets

Tampa Bay Bucs (-3) at New York Giants Odds (+3) Total: 43.5

(Nov 24th at 1:00 PM East Rutherford, NJ)

I love that the Tampa Bay Bucs keep losing. I knew this day would come. They are finally playing a team they can bully a bit, and it's after the market has given up on them. Oddly, both teams are on a bye this week, so we don't have to predict this week's outcome.

The Bucs are a playoff-caliber team, and the New York Giants are abysmal. Maybe the weather is nasty, and it's possible Brian Daboll makes the switch for a new quarterback. Both would help the G-Men, but I don't care. The Bucs needed the bye more than New York after playing so many close games against good teams. This built character for the team, and their leader, Baker Mayfield, already has the heart of a lion. Give me the better team right now with the far better QB at (-3) because this line is only headed in one direction.

Pick: Tampa Bay (-3)

Denver Broncos (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders Odds (+3) Total: 41

(Nov 24th at 4:05 PM Las Vegas, NV)

Do you want more positive EV? Maybe the public backs the Broncos as favorites this week, and they get burned. That's the only scenario I can imagine when this betting line would move under a field goal.

The Las Vegas Raiders travel to Miami this week. That sounds like trouble for a few reasons. For one, they’re flying back and forth across the country. Secondly, the Dolphins are rolling and are favored by more than a touchdown. Ultimately, this is Miami and I’m sure at least some of the team will have their extra-curricular fun. Although slightly presumptive, this is all good news about taking Denver now at just a field goal.

These teams did play one another just over a month ago. The Broncos won 34-18 at home, outsourcing the Raiders 21-8 in the 2nd half. Gardner Minshew threw two interceptions before he was benched in that game, which only made things worse, as Aiden O'Connell was 10/20 for 94 yards and a pick in relief.

Conservative Denver rookie QB Bo Nix had a solid performance. He threw for two touchdowns and 0 INTs, completing passes to 11 different Broncos. Looking at the team stats, they were pretty even for that game, though. I guess that’s why the line is this close. The 3-0 turnover margin was the difference.

Maybe this one plays tighter than the meeting a month ago, but the Broncos are playoff contenders now, while the Raiders are contenders for the first pick in the draft.

Pick: Broncos (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at LA Rams Odds (+3) Total: 48

(Nov 24th at 8:20 PM Inglewood, CA)

Our final lookahead lines best bet of the week is the Philadelphia Eagles at (-3). They are the better team. Philly is a Super Bowl contender, while the Rams are barely a playoff contender at this point.

I expect LA to bounce back this week against the Pats, but that's still nearly 12 hours of flying, while the Eagles only have to do the westward 6 to get to LA. Westward travel is less taxing on the body because you're gaining hours instead of losing them.

If LA looks good, it's because the Pats stink, and if Philly looks bad, it's because the Commanders are a good team. Therefore, I don't see this line moving under a field goal. It will probably open at 3.5 next week and close at 4. I would take the better team right now.

Pick: Eagles (-3)

More NFL Odds - Week 9 Lookahead Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns Odds (+3.5) Total: 42

(Nov 21st at 8:15 PM Cleveland, OH)

Kansas City Chiefs (-10) at Carolina Panthers Odds (+10) Total: 41.5

(Nov 24th at 1:00 PM Charlotte, NC)

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Chicago Bears Odds (+4.5) Total: 41

(Nov 24th at 1:00 PM Chicago, IL)

Tennessee Titans (+8.5) at Houston Texans Odds (-8.5) Total: 43

(Nov 24th at 1:00 PM Houston, TX)

Dallas Cowboys (+10.5) at Washington Commanders Odds (-10.5) Total: 43

(Nov 24th at 1:00 PM Landover, MD)

New England Patriots (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins Odds (-7.5) Total: 43.5

(Nov 24th at 1:00 PM Miami Gardens, FL

Arizona Cardinals (+1) at Seattle Seahawks Odds (-1) Total: 48

(Nov 24th at 4:25 PM Seattle, WA)

San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Green Bay Packers (-1.5) Total: 48

(Nov 24th at 4:25 PM Green Bay, WI)  

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at LA Chargers (+3) Total: 48

(Nov 25th at 8:15 PM Inglewood, CA)

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers