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March Madness Handicapping: Vulnerable No. 1 Seeds in the Sweet 16

by Mike Allen - 3/27/2024

Vulnerable No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 RJ Davis UNC Tar Heels

The Sweet 16 is quickly approaching. And, minus 1.5 major upsets, it has been a chalky first couple of rounds. The biggest upset was, of course, the Kentucky Wildcats falling to the Oakland Golden Grizzlies.

Outside of that, Texas A&M made a miraculous comeback against the Houston Cougars this past weekend in the round of 32, only to dump every ounce of adrenaline as team members belly-slid onto the court after the game-tying three as time ran out.

As a dedicated Duke hater for life, I was happy to see Houston pull that one out. Thankfully for them, they didn’t have to turn around and play again a day or two later. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars got a few days for their adrenaline levels to return to baseline.

As for the other three #1 seeds, they have each cruised through the first two rounds of the tournament. Every #2 seed continues to dance their jig in the Sweet 16, as well.

Today, I wanted to break down each of the four #1 seeds’ chances to abruptly halt their moves and make their exit post haste from the Sweet 16 on Thursday or Friday.

#1 UConn (-11.5) vs #5 San Diego State (+11.5)

Why not tip things off today with the #1 overall seed, the UConn Huskies? Hey, they are playing the San Diego State Aztecs, the team that shocked the world a year ago, making it all the way to the National Championship, only to fall significantly short against said Huskies by a score of 76-59.

San Diego State was a #5 seed last season, and they are a #5 again, as you can see. The Huskies, though, were a #4 seed in 2023.

I've got UConn here. However, to play devil's advocate for a moment, the Aztecs may have more future NBA ballers on their team this year than the Huskies. The point spread is the largest of any Sweet 16 game by far, for good reason.

We have the Huskies at least making it to the Elite Eight.

#1 Purdue (-5.5) vs #5 Gonzaga (+5.5)

If there was a #1a seed overall, it would certainly be the Purdue Boilermakers. Led by National Player of the Year and modern-day skyscraper, Zach Edey, this team is incredibly balanced on both sides of the ball.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have always been a force in college basketball. They have become a bit inconsistent over the past few seasons. However, when they are on, they can play with any team in the country, and that includes the Boilermakers.

I love the length of Purdue, not including the big man. That is something they have over Gonzaga. These two didn't play in the tournament last year, but they did square off in this season's Maui Invitational.

The Boilermakers got the best of them then, and they will once more.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

#1 Houston (-4.5) vs #4 Duke (+4.5)

I am pulling for Duke here. As "fitting" as it may be, I don't want to see all four #1 seeds playing in the Final Four. Heck, I will be disappointed if they all make it through the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight.

Houston has the best defense in the country, and Duke is one-dimensional on offense, with the three-ball as their #1 weapon. That has been their downfall for seasons now. They live and die by the 3-point shot too much.

As long as the Blue Devils don't pull an Oakland vs Kentucky and light the Cougars up with long balls, Houston should control the tempo and make Duke beat them another way.

I can’t get behind one dimension against the best defense and for that reason, I don’t believe Houston will be a #1 seed that loses in the Sweet 16.

#1 North Carolina (-4.5) vs #4 Alabama (+4.5)

Last but most likely least, we must touch on the Tar Heels of North Carolina. I am a huge fan, but I just don't get all the hype this season. I don't rate them as high as any of the other three #1 seeds.

To me, the Heels have overachieved for most of the season. If their star shooting guard RJ Davis has a bad night and/or gets into foul trouble, UNC may actually live up to their nicknames and forget how to move.

The offense runs through Davis and without him, Carolina is a #3 seed at best.

The Alabama Crimson Tide is all offense and no defense. They do, however, defend the 3-point shot very well. If the Tide’s length and athleticism combined with their offensive aggression may be Carolina’s kryptonite.

The line has moved half of a point in the opposite direction, but that isn’t going to stop me from betting Bama here.

North Carolina is the #1 seed that can lose in the Sweet 16.

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