Thursday Night Football Predictions: Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

by Mike Allen - 11/12/2024

First place in the NFC East will be on the line this Thursday night in Philadelphia when Jayden Daniels makes his first visit to the City of Brother Love. The Commanders quarterback is coming off the "worst" loss of his rookie year on a short week against a surging Eagles team, who have now won five consecutive ball games.

The respective returns of their two star wide receivers have rejuvenated this offense that averaged just 17 points/game over their previous three. As you probably know, it's given everyone a boost, including RB1 Saquon Barkley. His biggest weeks, not surprisingly, have come when this offense is in full force.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts is much more comfortable as well. He’s thrown just one interception in his last six games.

That has taken some pressure off the Philly defense, and it's shown, particularly against NFC East opponents. The Giants and Cowboys combined for nine points. So what, right? The Commanders offense is different. Daniel Jones stinks, and the Boys were without Dak Prescott this past week. They were still blowout division wins. Ask the 49ers, Chiefs, or Ravens how easy that is.

On the other side, the Washington Commanders have to quickly lick the wounds of a heartbreaking home loss to the Steelers. While I believe that Daniels will grow tremendously from that loss, and it will actually make the Commanders a better team down the stretch, much of that growth will come after this short week.

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Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

That is where the line opened, and we haven't seen any movement yet. The pros are staying away from Washington here, but why? It's a division game between the two best teams. We should take the 3.5 on the Commanders, but not so fast.

They aren't banged up from an injury perspective. However, Washington did just play the Steelers down to the wire. Pittsburgh is one of the most physical teams in the league.

Do you remember when Minnesota had to come off their loss to Detroit, another physical team, on a short week against the Rams and after a quick start? They faded even faster, only scoring three points over the final three quarters. That wasn't a division game, but I wouldn't fade Washington here because of where they are mentally. I'm concerned about the state of their bodies, especially in comparison to the Eagles, who had many starters that barely played half the game.

Moneyline Odds

Washington Commanders: +150

Philadelphia Eagles: -180

I just got burned with this strategy on the Houston Texans against Detroit, but if you like the Commanders here, maybe take them on the moneyline.

Point Total: 49

These are two offensive powerhouses, but on a short week, I could definitely see this one going under the point total. The defenses from both teams have stepped up over the past month. That would mean getting in the way of the top five offenses in the NFL, and that's a big ask.

Commanders at Eagles Betting Preview

We touched on the Eagles offense already, and they are an incredible unit of skill players at the most important positions. They are, however, missing one piece. Left tackle Jordan Mailata rates out as one of the best tackles in the NFL. What makes his absence even more significant are the PFF grades in the 50s at the bottom of the league for his replacement.

Mailata has been cleared to return from a significant hamstring injury as early as this week, but it’s still uncertain. If he does, I would hammer the Eagles here. If he’s not, the (-3.5) is still tempting.

Granted, the Commanders have faced tougher competition, and they have a better head coach, but I don't see how that helps them tackle Barkley coming out of the backfield. The Commanders shut down the Steelers' running game, so maybe they can hold Barkley to 4.0 yards/carry.

What about Hurts, though? He's completing barely 75% of his passes and averaging more than 10 yards/attempt since he's had his WR1 and WR2 back.

Commanders at Eagles Betting Prediction

I believe the two offenses cancel each other out, with the Eagles getting the slight edge for the tush push and experience at the quarterback position. As much as Washington has improved on the defensive side of the ball, though, they remain in the bottom five or ten teams in the league in yards per rush and pass.

Conversely, the overlooked Eagles rank in the top five in the NFL in both yards per rush and yards per pass allowed. That is highly impressive going into Week 11.

The sportsbooks are clearly trying to scare us off here with the hook, but I don’t care. I’ll take the better defense, the better team, and the better spot.

Pick: Eagles (-3.5)

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Thursday Night Football Predictions: Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

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