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Thursday Night Football Predictions: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

by Mike Allen - 11/20/2024

Thursday Night Football predictions Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Jameis Winston

Until last week’s massive AFC North first-place win over the Ravens, the Pittsburgh Steelers had yet to play a divisional game. The victory may have been aided by the freefall of Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker, but a win is a win.

It won't be easy turning around on a short week after such an emotional day. However, if anyone can do it, it's Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin. Thursday Night Football isn't all about keeping the team's rhythm. This has to be balanced with literally a little bit of RnR. That's rest and relaxation, not rock'n roll. I don't doubt Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski will have the boys ready to compete, but he isn't Tomlin.

While the Cleveland Browns are a better team without their previous quarterback, Jameis Winston still hasn't nicked the habit of throwing the ball to the other team. He has the physical and mental capabilities to start in the NFL and play at a fairly high level, and don't get me started on his leadership skills. This is when I wonder if maybe he's like most of us, his biggest strength is his biggest weakness. Winston may let his emotions get the best of him on the field, and many times, it's chalked up to a mistake or that he needs to do his homework. That's not the read I have on his personality. He comes to fight.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

The betting line opened up at 3.5, And after touching 4 a few times, we now have a consensus (-3.5) for the visiting Steelers. Even though this is a horrific spot for Pittsburgh, they've still received the vast majority of the money, more money than tickets, actually. That means the Cleveland Browns are public underdogs in this one.

Moneyline Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers: -200

Cleveland Browns: +170

While the moneyline odds don’t interest me here, it should be noted that they’re on the expensive side of the average (-3.5) and higher paying if you like the dog.

Point Total: 36.5

The point total has shifted dramatically since it opened at a reasonable 42 points. This is in large part due to the weather forecast just off the banks of Lake Erie. As of Wednesday morning, it looks like the brunt of the wind and rain will be before kickoff, however, we are still talking about a 45% chance of rain with winds upwards of 16 MPH.

That's not too bad, especially considering the immense immediate push from the big money towards the under. We have since seen a bit of buyback because it was down to 36. The way the weather is looking now, though, a bet on the over could be the play.  The key number was 41, but now we are at 37. If you want to play the total, I would error on the right side of that number.

Steelers at Browns Betting Analysis

There's so much to unpack in this one. It's no secret these teams hate each other. And no matter the result, expect an incredibly grimy physical game from both sides. This is where I start to worry about the Steelers. They played their hearts out against the Ravens just a couple of days ago. The question is, did they play their backs, their knees, and/or their brains out as well?

If so, that's bad news because the Cleveland Browns looked like they checked out a bit early in their loss to the Saints. The Browns will most likely be the fresher team but watch out for that to kick in towards the end of the game. Conversely, if things aren't going the Browns way in the 2nd half, we might see them look for the metaphorical door down the stretch.

Returning to the weather, the moon ball may not be the best idea if the winds are whipping at more than 15 MPH. I don't know what to expect from the Browns' kicker, though. Maybe the wind helps him. He sure could have used it in the Superdome on Sunday. The stat line reads 0/2 on field goal attempts for the once-reliable Dustin Hopkins, but he had another legit miss that was taken off the board due to a penalty. Black Friday could come early for the Steelers. Two once very good kickers who play for your rivals are kicking the worst ball of their career.

How much will Stefanski trust his guy to make a 45+ yarder in the wind this week? That brings up 4th and longer than normal. To me, that screams Watt pressuring Winston into an emotional mistake more often than not.

Steelers at Browns Betting Pick

I've seen a lot of trends that point towards taking the Cleveland Browns in this terrible spot for the Steelers. I know I talked up Tomlin in the intro, but I found a Pittsburgh beat writer who pointed out something very surprising. The Steelers are 0 for their last 7 against division opponents on the road on Thursday nights.

That one is rough, but so is the massive move towards the under, taking 37 and 41 out of the equation.

I went with Najee Harris earlier this year to go over 67.5 yards against the Giants. We can get him to go over 66.5 against another weak run defense. How weak is the Browns' run defense? Well, last week skewed the stats a bit. Thanks, Taysom Hill.

This seems like the right play here, but Harris has been a little banged up. He played through the Ravens game with an ankle injury that happened against Washington. Leaning on him in a Monday night win against the Giants isn't the same as this week's spot in Cleveland.

Taking him to go over the 66.5 is juiced, though, at (-137), eerily the same odds we had before. Let's shift ever so slightly and take him over his reception total of 1.5, which is priced handsomely at even money. Downfield throws will come at a premium with the wind. Tomlin likes a conservative, smart offense that takes the occasional shot downfield. His offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, is infamous for his dink-and-dunk style of play. Give me Harris to catch a couple of passes in space. If I were the OC, I would prefer him in the open field as opposed to the trenches because it's generally harder to react than to act. I can see defenders slipping in the open field if Harris once Harris gets his legs going.

Pick: Harris Over 1.5 Receptions (+100)

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