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Thursday Night Football Predictions: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

by Mike Allen - 9/24/2024

Thursday Night Football predictions Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Dak Prescott

The Dallas Cowboys have owned their NFC East division rival, the New York Giants, for three years, winning six consecutive contests. For all betting intents and purposes, they were 5-1 against the spread. That's great news for Cowboy backers this week, because outside of the Giants injury report (more on that in a moment), there simply isn't a whole lot to feel great about down in Big D.

Reports of unprofessional attitudes and practices leading up to the Baltimore Ravens game have found their way out. Neither surprises me. Preparation breeds confidence, and you have to be nearly perfect in your preparation if you want to be successful in this league.

Dallas has the talent, and I imagine some players are frustrated with the rapidly aging front-office leadership.

Things aren't much better in New York. Last April, the team decided to re-sign unproven quarterback Daniel Jones to a massive deal. He has yet to perform at an NFL level, and the team can opt out of his contract after this season. For now, though, he is the best they have,

Thankfully for Jones, the team drafted Malik Nabers at wide receiver. He provided the only spark at the position in the Giants' win over Cleveland.

Not all is bad in New York. They have a strong coach in Brian Daboll. I expect he will have his team ready to play on this short week. As for Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys, the recent leak, at least in the short term, will likely lead to ‘Dem Boys being locked in.

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Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at New York Giants (+4.5)

Last week's games heavily impacted the betting odds. Dallas was a touchdown favorite on the look-ahead line. After Dallas looked terrible in a loss against the Ravens, and the G-Men held off the Browns for a W in Cleveland, the money poured in on New York. At more than 7, I understand it. However, the market has overreacted, and we're here to take advantage of that.

Point Total: 45

Both defenses have struggled to this point, especially to stop the run. A worry for New York on Thursday, though, will be shutting down Dak Prescott and a Cowboy passing game that just doesn’t go away.

You have to give them credit there. The stable of running backs is a joke, and we spoke already about their troubles off the field. Their defense has been absolutely shredded for 72 points over their previous two games, which were played at home!

If this weren't a Thursday night game, I would lean toward playing the over. Both of the Giants' starting cornerbacks were hurt last week and are currently listed as questionable.

Moneyline

Cowboys: -210

Giants: +275

There is some value here on the Giants’ moneyline. If they didn’t have such a lengthy injury report, I would hammer this line. The expected moneyline odds for a +4.5 underdog is roughly (+180), and that calculation doesn’t account for them being the home team.

Cowboys at Giants Betting Analysis

Outside of the issues we touched on already, the biggest issues for Dallas are running the ball effectively and stopping the run. They rank 29th in yards/attempt, as well as dead last in the league in yards/attempt allowed.

With the Giants' secondary as banged up as it is, both the Cowboys' rushing offense and rushing defense should matter considerably less. New York has three total cornerbacks listed as questionable and seven guys altogether who were hurt on Sunday, also limited at practice with that designation.

One bright spot for New York was sacking Deshaun Watson eight times. I don’t see them doing the same to Dak, though. He is much more mobile and likely won’t be dropping back in a ton of obvious passing downs.

Cowboys at Giants Betting Pick

New York lost their kicker a couple of weeks ago. Their free agent signing is currently 0-1 from 45 yards.

The injuries to the secondary on a short week will prove too much against statistically/monetarily the #1 throw and catch combo in the NFL. From there, in the second half with the lead, Dallas can calm the Giants’ pass rush by running the ball and throwing screens. In the end, New York and Jones throw a late garbage touchdown to Naibors, making the score 27-20 and busting the under.

Pick: Dallas (-4.5)

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