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Thursday Night Football Predictions: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

by Mike Allen - 9/10/2024

Thursday Night Football picks Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Josh Allen

This Thursday night in primetime, the Dolphins welcome a familiar foe, the Buffalo Bills, to Miami for an early-season AFC North showdown. Both teams had to come back from double-digit deficits to win, with each game coming down to the wire. Miami had the lead for only 1 second in that game, as they needed a walk-off field goal to defeat the Jaguars. The Bills held off a potential game-winning drive from Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, securing a win in their home opener.

The weather for this Thursday night's game favors the home team as the heat index is forecasted to climb into the triple digits during the evening. If you've ever lived in Florida, you know it rains almost every day in the evenings. With it being so hot and humid, I would imagine the rain will come prior to kickoff and shouldn't be a factor. It's 20% at 8 pm, and the likelihood decreases thereafter.

Bill's quarterback Josh Allen is a little bit banged up. However, it's his non-throwing hand, which isn't a major concern, especially for someone as tough as the Wyoming alum.

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

Bills: +2

Dolphins: -2

The Buffalo Bills come into this Week 2 matchup with the Fins having won eight of their previous 10 games, minus the preseason. Those two losses came to the Ravens and the Chiefs, both by just a field goal.

Miami ran out of heat by the end of last season with three consecutive losses. However, they held the fort at Hard Rock Stadium, finishing the regular season with a 7-2 record at home. They did, however, lose to Buffalo both on the road and at home in 2023.

Moneyline

Dolphins: -130

Bills: +110

Point Total

Over 49: -110

Under 49: -110

Bills at Dolphins Betting Analysis

The Buffalo Bills were 2-0 against the Dolphins in 2023, but they are a different team on both sides of the ball this season. Their identity last year was a pass-first team that made their money by throwing the deep ball. With the exit of Stefon Diggs, the Bills had to get back to smashmouth football.

I like this. It fits the personality of the quarterback. Allen "can" air it out all day long. The arm is there, and he isn't scared. Therein lies the problem. Don't get me wrong. His accuracy is solid. However, when you add his cajones and cannon of an arm to the equation, you get a fairly effective gun-slinger. However, efficiency falls by the wayside. The next thing you know, he's leading the league in interceptions.

Buffalo showed us a new look in Week 1. It took the offense a couple of quarters to get going, and Miami was the same way. I don't expect the same sputtering start from either squad on Thursday.

The Dolphins weren't able to establish the run against the Jaguars the entire game. As it worked out, they didn't have to, as Je'von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle combined for over 300 yards receiving. Miami also caught some breaks on Sunday, while the Bills had the ball bounce the other way in their game against the Cardinals.

Miami's ability to stop the run on defense and effectively pound it on offense will be their keys to victory.

Bills at Dolphins Betting Pick

Should the Dolphins have the lead in the second half, they will likely have a hard time keeping it with their pass-first mentality. Whether they have the lead late or not, I love a bet here on the Bills’ point total. I lean towards Buffalo to win, but the dynamic Dolphin offense has led to me just betting the Bills to go over their point total. Miami was 9-2 ATS as home favorites of 1.5 points or more in 2023, which is a tremendous trend. However, the Bills owned them, scoring 69 points on Miami in two games.

Pick: Bills OVER Team Total 23.5 (-110)

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