Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Thursday Night Football Predictions: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

by Mike Allen - 9/3/2024

Thursday Night Football predictions Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes

Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season is finally upon us! Let’s cross our fingers for no major injuries. It would be interesting, however, to see the Kansas City Chiefs try to play an entire season without the best football player in the league.

This Thursday, the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs play host to the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game, only with the home/away switched. The betting odds are close, as you may imagine, with the home Chiefs as field goal favorites in Arrowhead.

Baltimore still has their head coach, John Harbaugh, as well as returning the reigning NFL MVP, quarterback Lamar Jackson. Outside of those two and a few others. However, this is a new-look squad. From the offensive line to the pass rush to the stable of running backs, it's difficult to predict how well these pieces will fit together. 

Today, let’s take a look at the point spread, moneyline, and total. From there, we can make a prediction for your pockets.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Including playoff games, KC QB Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 in head-to-head matchups against Jackson's Ravens. This shouldn't come as a major surprise to anyone, as the former is simply the better player. It's hard not to lean toward the Chiefs for this year's Kickoff Game. They have made some changes, but it isn't anything like we have seen in Baltimore.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Moneyline

Chiefs: -144

Ravens: +124

Point Total

Over 46.5: -110

Under 46.5: -110

Their biggest offseason signing was future Hall of Fame running back Derrick Henry. He is 30. However, we can't forget that he had the best 2020 of anyone outside of Jeff Bezos when he ran for more than 2,000 yards. His average yards per rush may have fallen over the past couple of years, but his team was losing in many of those games. He led the league in carries last year. Baltimore let go of 2 backs to bring him in. I expect the Ravens to lean on Henry as much as possible against the Chiefs.

With Henry and Baltimore eating up the clock, KC's 6th-ranked red zone defense could hold them to field goals. On the other side, Mahomes and the Chiefs struggled through most of the season and in the first halves of their playoff games putting the ball in the end zone. His weaponry has improved, but touchdowns will likely be hard to come by against the 2nd-ranked red zone defense from 2023.

Ravens @ Chiefs Betting Analysis

Last season, especially early on in the year, primetime unders were hitting nearly at an all-time rate. Many teams barely play their superstars if at all during the preseason. So, we see our fair share of ugly football, albeit at the highest level.

The level doesn’t get much higher than Baltimore vs KC. With each team losing some key players, including three new offensive linemen for the Ravens and the Chiefs replacing an All-Pro cornerback, the under 46.5 is looking more and more attractive.

When these two teams met in the AFC Championship, Baltimore was on the receiving end of some suspect calls down the stretch that could have easily changed the outcome should they have gone the other way. They didn't do themselves any favors, though, as far as game planning/balance on offense. Baltimore beat the Texans in the Divisional Round. They handed the ball off 31 times for 119 rushing yards. They scored 34 points. Against the Chiefs the following week in a game they lost by one score, they handed the ball off a grand total of 8 times. Jackson takes a lot of heat for not winning in the playoffs, but this one is on the play-caller. I expect a far different approach in this game.

Ravens @ Chiefs Betting Pick

In their previous meeting, these two only mustered a total of 27 points between them. All we need this week is for them to keep it under 47. We have the early season primetime game trend on our side as well as evenly matched teams. Each is a defensive powerhouse, even more stingy in the red zone.

Pick: Under 46.5 

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent Thursday Night Football Picks

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers