Thursday Night Football Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

by Mike Allen - 10/1/2024

In business, a buccaneer is quite clever and usually successful. However, they are not to be trusted. It's been the story for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for quite some time, but they're looking better through the first month of the season than they have since the Brady "era." Tampa looks good so far this season, but are they for real?

We can safely start by saying that Baker Mayfield has leveled up. The team undoubtedly has some of the best wideouts in the league. Todd Bowles’ blitzing schemes have been frequent thus far in 2024, ranking in the top 5 in blitz rate, QB knockdowns, and hurries. The blitz was key in beating Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last week. Only the Minnesota Vikings have blitzed more than Tampa, and you see their success.

The Atlanta Falcons have had a tumultuous yet solid start to the 2024 regular season. Atlanta had a strong offensive line and secondary with a potential All-Pro running back. All that was missing was a reliable quarterback. Enter Captain Kirk Cousins. And all of a sudden, the public and the sharp bettors’ expectations as well skyrocketed.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

It's our job as bettors to take advantage of expectations. In life, I try to stay far away from them because they're generally crap. If they're consistently high, then you're usually disappointed. If they're consistently low, then you're limiting yourself.

Through the first four weeks of the season, Tampa Bay has exceeded its projections, while the Falcons have fallen short. Said expectations, along with recency bias, is why this line has been bet down from 3 points instead of going Atlanta’s way.

The Bucs just shined against a drastically depleted Eagles squad. They also looked good against an atrocious Commander defense, led on offense by a rookie playing his first game. In between there, they came out of Detroit with a win, only to have a letdown the next week to another rookie quarterback-led team in Denver, albeit the Broncos D is legit.

We just saw on Monday night how hard it is to go into the Lions’ den and come out with a W. Can the Bucs go on the road with another performance like that in Atlanta?

Point Total: 43.5

This is the fishiest total I've seen this week. We have been crushing the primetime unders so far this year, and I thought we might get another point total of 46.5, but no. It hasn't been bet down either. That is right where we've opened. The line has held steady, even with public money (88% of the tickets) pouring in on the over.

With a divisional matchup in a primetime game, especially on a Thursday night, as tight as this one will likely be, going under is probably the best bet. However, this one is funky. We don't have to fade the public, but we don't have to follow either.

Moneyline

Tampa Bay: +105

Atlanta: -125

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Betting Analysis

Tampa recently shined against a drastically depleted Eagles squad. They also looked good against an atrocious Commander defense, led on offense by a rookie playing his first game. In between there, they came out of Detroit with a win, only to have a letdown the next week to another rookie quarterback-led team in Denver, albeit the Broncos D is legit.

We just saw on Monday night how hard it is to go into the Lions’ den and come out with a W. Can the Bucs go on the road with another performance like that, this time in Atlanta?

Looking at the injury report, I am counting five starters on offense, as well as five on the defense, all listed as questionable for Thursday night's game. That includes star wideout Mike Evans. However, it's the defensive line that I'm most worried about. The Bucs run a 3-4 defense. Of those three linemen, three are questionable. Of the three backups, two are questionable, and the other is out of the game.

To win consistently in the NFL, you must run the ball effectively and stop the run. Tampa ranks 21st in yards/rush, while the defense has been atrocious, allowing 5.0 yards a carry (29th). I'm not so sure the Bucs blow out the Commanders if they played in Week 5. Would they have smashed the Eagles if they had to play against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith?

Tampa is not in the Super Bowl contender conversation until they prove to me that they can stop the run. The team has gotten to 3-1 because they jumped out to early leads, forcing opponents into likely passing downs. From there, Bowles does his thing with the blitz. It's beautiful…when it works. When it doesn't, you lose at home to a rookie quarterback-led Broncos team.

The Falcons are 9th against the run and 11th in yards/carry. I still think the sharp money will come in on Atlanta here, but the hesitation due to the hamstring injury of running back Bijan Robinson has me scratching my head.

Robinson has been outplayed this year. I read an article from an Atlanta beat writer, and he made a great case for actually benching Robinson for backup Tyler Allgeier. If I were Allgeier, I'd still have a chip on my shoulder after averaging 4.9 a carry for over 1,000 yards rushing in my rookie season, only to see my team use the 8th pick to draft a running back.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Betting Pick

I like a few bets this week. If you want a side, take Atlanta. Their Top 10 yards/play stats are more indicative of who they are than being bottom 5 in the league in the red zone. The combination of an incredibly banged-up Tampa defensive line, their ability to stop the run, along with Atlanta's balanced offense playing at home, lead the Falcons to a win of three or more often than not. There is a player prop, however, that I'm in love with. Allgeieris just (-110) to go over 32 yards rushing. Remember, Robinson has a freshly strained hammy on a short week. Why would they load him up with carries when his healthy backup averages a full TWO YARDS more per carry? I think Allgeier goes off this week. Outside of an injury, the worst-case scenario is the Bucs having a big lead for most of the game, Robinson getting most of only a few rush attempts from Atlanta, and Allgeir falling short. Guys, he's already averaging nearly 50 a game over his previous three. Maybe he's just busted off long runs, skewing his average. Nope. Over four games, his longest runs in each are 15, 13, 15, and 12. The only question is how high we want to take this. He has rushed for more than 130 yards twice in his career. All signs are pointing toward Allgeier having his best day of the season. We will gamble officially, but only a bit.

Pick: Allgeier over 42 yards rushing (+131)

For those of you looking for a craz payday, I'll just leave this here. Don’t get greedy…

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards

Over 52: +198

Over 62: +298

Over 72: +457

Over 82: +713

Over 92: +1144

Over 102: +1859

Over 112: +3253

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Thursday Night Football Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

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