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Thursday Night Football Picks: Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

by Mike Allen - 12/23/2024

Thursday Night Football picks for Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears Geno Smith

Typically, Thursday Night Football is the kickoff for the NFL week of football. We have quite the unique Christmas break of games, with matchups on the tube five of the seven days of Week 17.

The big day is, of course, Wednesday, with two massive matchups in the AFC, the Chiefs and Steelers, and the Texans and Ravens. Isn't that too short of a week, though? These four teams played this past Saturday. They will be on short rest but the same amount as on a regular Thursday night.

Speaking of Thursday night, we have an odd matchup here with the Seattle Seahawks traveling to Chi-Town after a heartbreaking loss at home to the Minnesota Vikings. It wasn't a must-win game for the Hawks. However, it knocks their chances to make the postseason down to only 25%.

As for the Chicago Bears, they were home on Sunday afternoon against the Lions. We saw a completely different attitude from Chicago on Sunday than we did in their first meeting with Detroit. It takes the Bears at least 20 minutes of gameplay to get going.

Go ahead, lay another fat egg early, Chicago. There’s a family of desperate Seahawks hungry to gulp it down Arnold style.

The coaching staff of the Chicago Bears may be worse than the New York Jets'. Thankfully for them, they're at home, but do we really want to put our money on a team that will likely come in flat and unprepared?

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Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (+3.5)

I was a bit surprised to see the betting odds at just (-3.5). Usually a much better home team, the Seattle Seahawks are 5-1 on the road this year. Then, I looked at the opening number and saw the Hawks opened at just (-1.5). That was, of course, a beautiful price. After 75% of both the money and tickets immediately hammered it, here we are, chasing Seattle with negative EV on the road to cover more than a field goal.

Or are we?

Moneyline Odds

Seahawks: -180

Bears: +150

This moneyline isn't too bad for Seattle at just (-180). With the Christmas games preceding Thursday Night Football, the Seahawks vs Bears matchup has garnered virtually zero attention from the betting public. That's why the money and the tickets are 75% for Seattle.

We can morph that negative EV into steam with a moneyline bet on the Seahawks. The cost of this is roughly 39% of your payout. (-110) pays $90.91 for a 100-dollar bet, while a hundred bucks on (-180) will net you 55.56.

Understandably, not a lot of people want to make that sacrifice. It should be noted that not many people make money betting on sports, either.

Point Total: 42.5

This is a very low total. However, getting a read on either team in that regard isn't easy. The Seahawks are 8-7 on the season and 8-7 to the over, while the Bears are 4-11 on the season but 6-9 to the over.

The Seahawks have gone over every total set this low except when they shut out a drastically depleted Dolphins team early in the year, 24-3. It's hard to know what to expect from the Bears this year unless it's more lousy coaching and lazy play.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears Betting Analysis

The logical “public” part of my brain says that this is a playoff game for the Seahawks, and the Chicago Bears are a hot mess whose anxiety to pack their suitcases and not walk but run for the door has ultimately spiked.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears Betting Pick

I understand Seattle is banged up and traveling on a short week. That's why I want to be safer and take the moneyline. Fading teams who are out of it already has worked like a charm this year, and the Bears aren't the Cowboys you saw on Sunday night.

Chicago doesn’t have a head coach of that caliber, and they aren’t playing with near the intensity.

The stats are starting to catch up with the Bears' defense, as well. Once vaunted, I'm seeing 31st in yards/play allowed. The 3rd ranked red zone defense has kept them in it at times.

Pick: Seahawks Moneyline (-180)

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