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Thursday Night Football Picks: New England Patriots at New York Jets

by Mike Allen - 9/17/2024

Thursday Night Football picks New England Patriots vs New York Jets Aaron Rodgers

Green 18, green 18…hut! The NFL is a better place when Aaron Rodgers is playing every week. He may not have the scrambling ability that we see from Patrick Mahomes or C.J. Stroud, and he is 40 years old, but the dude can still sling it better than anybody. In Week 1 on Monday Night Football this season, Rodgers was up against it big time playing opposite the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners proved themselves to be the better overall team that night. However, it was the first time we saw Rodgers play an entire NFL game in 20 months.

He's yet to hook up with WR1 Garrett Wilson for a touchdown. I'm hearing a lot of noise around this space about taking Wilson to catch a touchdown in this one. The betting odds are up to (+160). Wideouts are the most egotistical of any position, and you know Wilson and Rodgers will hook up for six sooner rather than later. Maybe we will come back to that one if we need to.

The New England Patriots are a surprise to some. Still, I told you guys that Jacoby Brissett has the experience to manage games and a defense that will keep them competitive with most of the league. Unsurprisingly, both the Patriots' first two games this season have gone under the point total. However, we can't immediately run to the betting window for this one. The Jets are actually 2-0 to the over so far.

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New England Patriots (+6.5) at New York Jets (-6.5)

The betting line opened up right where we are now at six and the hook for the home Jets. We have seen some Patriot money come in, and rightfully so if it's a sharp system play. In this particular game, however, we must account for probable progression for the Jets offense. They are banged up on defense, but I still have confidence in that unit to hold the Pats under 20 points.

Point Total: 37.5

The point total opened up at 38.5, and, as you would imagine, has quickly been bet down to the 37.5 we are dealing with right now. If we were to bet this primetime under, we would be on the correct side of the key number, 37. This is the second most likely point total in an NFL game. The #1 key number for a point total is 41.

Everything points toward a bet on the under in this spot. However, when all systems are a go, we must be careful. NFL betting isn't about that. We are looking to fade the public more than piggyback. That said, primetime unders have hit at a 60% clip for over five years. Last season, they hit at 70%.

Moneyline

New York Jets: -280

New England Patriots: +235

Patriots at Jets Betting Analysis

He may not be there anymore, but the Bill Belichick way is now the Patriot way under head coach Jerod Mayo. Wow, you know you are getting old when you remember scouting players in college who are now NFL head coach coaches. This "way" is using the first few weeks of the NFL regular season as an extension of the preseason.

Looking at some of the various point totals around the league for Week 3, we’re seeing the sportsbooks drop them quite low already. It took a while for them to catch on last season as teams sputtered for even longer, but the books have made their move. We have to adjust.

There is no higher variability of results than a Thursday night NFL game. The preparation time is more than 40% shorter than a normal Sunday-Sunday break.

Patriots at Jets Betting Pick

The primetime under here seems too good to be true. The key number of 37 hits more often than 38 and 39 combined. The sportsbooks are dangling this shiny object in front of us, but it seems too good to be true, especially with the under cashing in all four of the matchups between these two division foes over the past two years.

If I'm betting MMA and the stars align perfectly, that's when multiple units are wagered. NFL betting is not the same. Public money is based on logic. We have to think outside of the box, many times directly against said logic to be profitable.

For this week's Thursday Night Football pick, we are circling back to Wilson catching a touchdown. Last week, the Pats shut down the Seattle running game. However, Geno Smith threw for over 300 yards with a 75% completion percentage. What I love about Wilson this week is the top two pass catchers for the Seahawks had 12 and 10 receptions, respectively. We also have the human effect, the bond that Wilson and Rodgers have. This relationship started 1.5 years ago, and each player has visualized this moment numerous times already. The TD is coming, and for (+160), take my money.

Pick: Wilson Anytime TD (+160)

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