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Thursday Night Football Picks: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

by Mike Allen - 11/25/2024

Thursday Night Football picks Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Jordan Love

Is it just me, or does November seem to go by faster than any other month? Only days ago, it seems, we were eating our kids' tootsie rolls and heading out to the polls. After an exhale, just like that, it's Cyber Monday. It's a short week of work but a busy one, as the NFL has a tripleheader on Thanksgiving once again, along with a Black Friday game for those who would rather stay safe in their living rooms and enjoy some football.

Don't fill up over the first two games of the day, because the primetime game at 8:20 is the best matchup. It's cool to watch the Lions play, but that one will probably be over by halftime. Then it's Cooper Rush versus Tommy Devito. While I do think Dallas warrants the (-4) points at home, betting on 'Dem Boys isn't high on my list.

Save some room in your stomach for the late game between the Dolphins and the Packers. This is a fun one from two teams that rarely see each other. Miami has been red hot since the return of Tua Tagovailoa. After close losses to the Cardinals and Bills, the 'Phins have rattled off three consecutive wins, including a blowout on Sunday against the Pats.

The defense is playing even better than the offense. I would not want to tangle with Miami right now. Although slim, they still have a chance to make the playoffs at 13%.

The Green Bay Packers are getting healthier, but it remains unclear how close to 100% Jordan Love really is. First, it was his knee, then his groin. The team looked better than they have in a while, though, in their dominant win versus the 49ers on Sunday. San Francisco was incredibly banged up, so we can't take too much from that performance.

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Miami Dolphins (+3) at Green Bay Packers (-3)

This betting line opened up at (-3.5) for the Pack, and there are still some 3.5s out there as of Monday morning if you're interested. There hasn't been a ton of movement, and there isn't a pros vs joes split with the money and tickets.

Moneyline Odds

Dolphins: +150

Packers: -170

The Dolphins' moneyline payout would provide a nice bump to our bankroll, but this is late November in upstate Wisconsin. 

Point Total: 47.5

We opened at 48. And with the threat of inclement weather, we've seen about two-thirds of the money come in on the under. Bettors are pumping their brakes, though, this week after jumping the gun on the Cleveland game this past Thursday. I feel like we have to talk about that one.

The total opened at 42 and, still days away from kickoff and only a 50% chance of snow, was immediately bet down to 36. I thought for a second, hey, this is a good time to bet the over because 6 points is a lot, and we would be under the key number of 37.

By late in the third quarter, the snow hadn't come, and the game was almost certainly staying under the total. Well, the snow came hard and fast, and so did the scoring. It ended up going over the total.

It's too early to tell how the weather will affect this game, but it'll undoubtedly be cold.

Conventional wisdom and recent history tell us Green Bay's advantage will likely grow if the weather worsens. The impression I get, however, from watching this team compete, is that they aren't scared of a little snow. You will be hard-pressed to find a team playing with more intensity than Miami right now. And the fact that they weren't looking ahead to this game and took care of business tells me they're equally as focused.

Dolphins at Packers Betting Analysis

The problem for Miami in bad weather isn't their attitude, though. It's their lack of ability to run the ball. They absolutely torched the Pats on Sunday but couldn't get anything going on the ground. They're barely averaging 3 yards a carry over their previous three games.

I really want to back the Dolphins this week, but running the ball is how you want to attack Green Bay, and it may be your primary option if the weather turns. Without the hook, it's hard to play Miami.

Miami didn't look ahead to this game. That's great for them because they need to win virtually every game from here on out to make the postseason. Not looking ahead, though, means you're just now starting to prepare for a game just a couple of days away. Lefleur said he watched all of the Dolphins' plays for the season during the bye week. He has everyone ahead a day this week, even for a Thursday game.

If it comes down to which head coach I trust more, it's definitely Lafleur.

Dolphins at Packers Betting Pick

The Miami defense will not quit. And in a potentially low-scoring game with bad weather, those three points count even more. Both teams have strong defenses and are particularly effective against the pass, with both teams allowing about 5 yards per attempt for the season.

Tagovailoa is super hot right now, but the weather isn't. Give me the under in this one. I like it now. And if the forecast worsens, we'll be more than happy to be sitting north of 47.

Pick: Under 47.5

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