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Thursday Night Football Picks: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

by Mike Allen - 12/10/2024

Thursday Night Football picks for Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Cooper Kupp

Minus the Cowboys punt block that wasn't, it was mostly a meaningless Monday Night of football. Today, we shift our focus, on a short week, to this Thursday's SoCal vs NorCal matchup in Santa Clara. The Los Angeles Rams improved to 7-6 on Sunday with a 44-42 win at home over the Buffalo Bills. It was the highest-scoring game of the season in the NFL. The come down from that high will easily overlap with the Rams' preparation for Thursday Night Football.

The now 6-7 San Francisco 49ers are coming off a big win themselves…over the Chicago Bears. The team looked incredible in the 38-13 victory, a far cry from their previous two outcomes, where they were outscored 38-10 and 35-10.

How much can we really take from the Chicago win, though? They allowed the Eagles and Bills to score 11 combined touchdowns. That's not a promising sign, having to prepare for one of the NFL's most calibrated and catalyzed offenses. I'm starting to think Puka Nacua is more valuable than Cooper Kupp. I guess with both of them healthy, who cares?

I’m not overly surprised the 49ers won comfortably against the Chicago Bears. I thought it would be a defensive battle with so many injuries to the Niners’ offense. They showed out, though, and it doesn’t look like this team is ready to quit on themselves just yet. Could the Bears have been tanking, though? They had 94 yards passing and 67 on the ground. I know they’ve laid some eggs already this year, but that’s abysmal.

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Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

This line opened up at (-3) for San Franciso and was immediately bet down to where we are now at (-2.5). The sharps see this as an atrocious spot for the Rams, and I agree. Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay did shock the Vikings 30-20 on a Thursday night back in Week 8 as 3.5-point favorites.

The 49ers are also 1-0 on Thursday night this season as they secured a big 36-24 win over the Seahawks. They will likely have to play without their third-string running back this week, Isaac Guerendo. Not to mention their Hall of Fame left tackle, Trent Williams, is once again listed as questionable.

Moneyline Odds

49ers: -140

Rams: +120

With the point spread betting odds under a field goal for the favorite 49ers, we should look to bet them on the moneyline. Not many margins of victory land on 1 or 2, but it’s enough to bite you when you need it the least.

Point Total: 48.5

The point total for this Thursday night’s game opened on the key number of 47, and, as you might imagine, was quickly bet up to where we are now at 48.8 after the two teams combined for 82 points on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

Money has come in on the over. Thankfully, the point total hasn't jumped up too much. The number 48.5 is a little low for a matchup like this. Even with their inconsistencies, it's hard to imagine the Rams' offense being shut down. That said, I am surprised to see LA is just 7-6 to the over this season. Their defense hasn't been Cincinnati Bengal-bad. However, when both are clicking, their effectiveness on D isn't comparable to what they can do on offense.

Each team has been trending towards the over lately, with LA hitting it in 3 of their last four and the Niners a half-point away from three in a row.

The Rams have a young, hungry, underrated secondary that matches up well with some of the best passing attacks in the league. However, the pressure mounts when the run defense isn't there, and the youth struggle to hold down their islands.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick

I can’t back the Rams in this spot, not after such a hard-fought win over such a physical team like the Bills. The collective soreness on that fair-weather offensive passing team will be too much to endure when the Niners run the ball down their throats.

If anyone can plug a no-name running back into a system on less than a week's preparation, it's Kyle Shanahan or his father, Mike.

Give me the Niners here on the moneyline at (-140). They are a proud franchise needing a victory, even more so than LA, if they want a chance at the postseason. I like that Shanahan is 10-5 against McVay, and we're also getting the home team on a short week.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers Moneylline (-140)

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