Thursday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans vs New York Jets

by Mike Allen - 10/29/2024

New York, New York, big city of teams, that take too much scrutiny. I think the only thing keeping Daniel Jones under center is the 2-6 start to the season from the New York Jets. The reactions from the Manning brothers to his performance, particularly at the end of the game, tells you everything you need to know about the Duke grad. The shock and awe on their faces opposed to Jones' lost/blank expression was priceless.

Luckily for him, the green team is getting all the attention right now. It took longer than usual to research the upcoming Thursday Night Football game between the Jets and the Houston Texans simply due to the media meltdown over Aaron Rodgers and his team. I’ll spare you all the Rodgers hate, because I think it’s silly. The media hates this guy. And now that he’s on a struggling team, 40+ years old, and playing in New York, they can finally crucify him.

Spare me. This team has a problem. I don't know exactly what the problem is but the roots are deep. Yes, Rodgers has made his fair share of mistakes as well, but the whole team has been a mess since Week 1.

When you put it into perspective, your only pass rusher just now ended his holdout, the offensive line hasn’t performed, and the time it takes for a new quarterback to get a rhythm with his receivers, you want to give the Jets a pass. The sportsbooks did. Many professional bettors did.

If you've been betting the Jets, though, you have to be in the red at this point. They are 2-6 and 2-6 against the spread. Their only covers were their wins and they're -60 points ATS in their losses!

Houston Texan backers haven’t fared so well this year either, well those betting on them to cover the spread. If you’ve played Houston on the moneyline, you’re sitting at 75%. The Texans have been overvalued to start the season by the books, though, and are just 3-5 with a -17 point differential ATS this year.

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Houston Texans (+2) at New York Jets (-2)

Well, now that you're really motivated to bet on one of these two ATS, let's look at the betting odds. This one opened up at (-1) for the Jets. All I'm hearing and now seeing is that the wise guys love the Jets.

Moneyline

Texans: +110

Jets: -130

If you like New York, don’t you dare play the (-2) here. Conversely, if the Texans are your pick, take the points.

Point Total: 42

We opened up at 43.5. This one has quickly been bet down. You can expect more movement south, as short-week primetime games with two good defenses will continue to tempt backers of the under. Surprisingly, Houston is 6-1 to the under this season.

Texans at Jets Betting Analysis

Hitting rock bottom is just part of the process. Maybe that's what the Jets needed. Now, with all this scrutiny from the press, a rag-tag band of coaches and undisciplined players are supposed to cover the spread against a 6-2 team. That last sentence was a bit tongue-in-cheek, because this is one of those head-scratchers.

After relieving the itch and gaining your train of thought, though, you begin to see why the spot favors the Jets. Houston is coming off an emotional win over a divisional rival and must travel on a short week up to New Jersey for some Halloween fun at MetLife Stadium. It’s hard not to get up for a primetime game on Halloween, but the Texans are now two games up in their division with the tiebreaker and could be looking forward to the Detroit Lions coming to town in Week 10. This is also their third road game in just 18 days.

On the injury front, it's always hard to know for sure on a Thursday game, but there's a laundry list of players who didn't practice Monday for New York. The big news out of H-Town is Stefon Diggs will be out this week. Nico Collins is still inactive. Quarterback C.J. Stroud does not play his best ball on the road, either. It doesn't get much better on the defensive side for the Texans, either. They have three starters currently listed as questionable, including one of their captains, free safety Jimmie Ward.

Texans at Jets Betting Pick

It’s tough to play the under in this spot. The weather is set to be a ridiculous 80 degrees on Halloween. So, we are talking about perfect playing conditions for game time with little to zero wind.

The Texans should have some success on the ground with Joe Mixon, as New York has struggled to stop the run, especially over their past three games. Both defenses are lights out against the pass. That will take us to both offenses looking to run the ball, and that could chew some clock up, favoring the under.

That total is too low for Rodgers, though. Y'all made him mad. I think the entire locker room is furious. They outplayed the Pats. They have outplayed other teams they've lost to. As fans and beatwriters, you have to be livid. As bettors, though, we have to see this as a buy-low, back up against the wall, just touched bottom type of wager.

Pick: Jets Moneyline (-130)

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Thursday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans vs New York Jets

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