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Thursday Night Football Picks: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

by Mike Allen - 12/3/2024

Thursday Night Football picks for Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Jared Goff

It was right back to work after Thanksgiving for the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions last week because there's no mini-bye for either team. I love how the league set this one up. Neither team should have a scheduling advantage in such a big game. This is the biggest game of the 2024 season thus far. KC versus Buffalo was big. However, for the NFC, this Thursday night football game is gigantic.

The first meeting came on Dec. 3, with the Lions winning 24-14 on the road in Title Town. There was a late pick-six that sealed the deal for Detroit. Without that, we're probably looking at a 3-4 point margin of victory for Detroit. The Lions looked great in that game, but it should be noted that Packers QB Jordan Love was somewhat hampered by lower body injuries to his groin and knee. He appears to be healthier now. However, what matters the most to me is that that he's taking care of the football. After throwing eight picks over his first five games, he's thrown just three over the last five and zero in his previous two starts.

On the other side, Jared Goff has been nearly perfect outside of a 5-interception, albeit winning performance, against the Houston Texans. I gambled and bet Houston on the moneyline that week. It’s a good thing we took the Lions at (-2.5) on the lookahead line as they won by 3.

We are faced with a similar situation this week as the Pack is (+3.5), but the value is arguably better on their moneyline.

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Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The betting odds opened up at (6) for the Lions, but not many of us mortals were able to catch that one. The lookahead line was (-5.5). And after Green Bay looked great and Detroit didn't need but used a head coach-firing level mistake to get their win, it still opened at (-6). The Detroit Lions have earned the respect, but the sharp money sees the value in a division game that could have been much closer the first time they played.

Moneyline Odds

Green Bay Packers: +155

Detroit Lions: -185

If you like the Packers this week, even though you're on the right side of 3, I might take the moneyline. It has a lot of value, and some books offer upwards of (+170). After watching the Lions' performance last week against the Bears, I thought, hey, this team is slipping.

It was a division game, though, and Green Bay beat the Bears only 20-19 less than two weeks prior. It's possible Dan Campbell's halftime speech wasn't as intense as usual, and they just came out flat in the 2nd half.

Point Total: 51

The point total was up at 51.5 for a while, and now we sit at 51, which is a key number. With injuries on both sides of the ball for both teams, it's hard to get behind a point total here. They put up only 38 in Green Bay, so maybe 51 isn't that high.

Packers at Lions Betting Analysis

Both teams could have really used the extra rest, as the injury bug is biting Detroit and Green Bay. The big one for the Lions is left tackle Taylor Decker, who is one of the best in the league. If any team can handle losing the LT, though, it's the Lions, as their offensive line ranks #1 in the league. Also questionable are other 70+ PFF grade players like linebacker DJ Reader and aggressive cornerback Carlton Davis III.

The Packers are hoping to get All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander back this week. He was sidelined in the first game against Detroit, which showed, as the Packers were stuck in the base defense for most of the game. He is back practicing, and the word out of Green Bay is that he's "progressing." The team needs him more than ever this week, as his backup got banged up on Turkey Day. WR2 Romeo Doubs missed last week on concussion protocol and is expected to start on Thursday. Running back Josh Jacobs was limited in practice on Monday with a calf injury. He will most likely play. However, any loss of speed or proprioception at this level is worth noting. That's a big reason you see so many backup running backs come in and play so well immediately. I say put the Liberty grad, your QB2 Malik Willis, in the backfield alongside Love. Attempting to beat the Lions straight up in a nose-to-nose battle is precisely what they want. If I'm Matt LaFleur, I'm extending my arm deep into my bag of tricks for this one.

Standing tall 53.3 yards across from him is the motivator/intimidator Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions. He's as aggressive as they come. However, one thing that's overlooked is that he appears to be a seamless facilitator. Just look at his quarterback. Attitude reflects leadership, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree, and plenty more cliches apply to these two. Jared Goff is having the best season of his career, even with his pass attempts down from 35 a game for most of his career to just 28 this season.

Packers at Lions Betting Pick

If the Chicago Bears had come out in the 2nd half on Thanksgiving as flat at Detroit did, and the Lions cruised to a win, I would favor the spot for the Pack more. You must be worried about Josh Jacobs, though, if you like Green Bay.

After a 5-game span of 500 rushing yards on 5.1/carry, Jacobs ran for just 43 yards on 19 carries. Take away his long of 11, and he ran the ball 18 times for less than 2 yards/carry. I believe Green Bay will struggle to run the ball, and Love will be forced into making another mistake.

At home, we're getting the better team, with 2.5 points of value from the opening line, in what seems to be an even spot for both.

With Philly starting to roll, the Lions can't afford another loss, which could eventually put Goff out in the cold in January. Bet the Lions to handle business at home.

Pick: Lions (-3.5)

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