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Thursday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints

by Mike Allen - 10/14/2024

Thursday Night Football picks for Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints

It’ll be an emotional night of football this Thursday for Denver Broncos’ head coach Sean Payton. This matchup with the Saints will be the first time he’s returned to New Orleans to play his former team in the Superdome.

Payton has since made a solid account for himself, taking over the headset in Denver, where the Broncos hadn't sniffed the playoffs since their Super Bowl win in early 2016. After three consecutive last-place finishes, ownership made the move for the Super Bowl-winning coach.

Both the Broncos and the Saints need to bounce back quickly on a short week after suffering sound defeats at home to divisional foes on Sunday.

Spencer Rattler got the call under center for New Orleans in their loss to Tampa Bay. The kid played well early on, distributing the ball to eight different receivers. However, The Bucs' Todd Bowles made the proper defensive adjustments, holding him to 11/23 completions for 103 yards and 2 interceptions in the 2nd half.

I like backup quarterbacks in their first full game against the spread but not the second game back. For rookies, it’s the opposite. Bet against them in their first game and hopefully catch an overreaction from the books or public to pair with an athlete naturally performing better after their professional debut.

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Denver Broncos (+1) at New Orleans Saints (-1)

Moneyline

Broncos: +100

Saints: -120

If you like Denver here, just take them on the moneyline at (+100). Congratulations if you sold high on the Broncos last week, as they had become one of the NFL bettors' worst nightmares, a public underdog. It's tough to say right now how far their stock has dropped, though, because the Saints also lost big at home.

Point Spread: 37.5

We tipped this under last week, thinking we would lose it below the key number of 37, and we did for a while. However, since Monday afternoon, there has been a consensus of 37.5 across the board. I guess a combination of Rattler moving the ball around to so many different targets and the Broncos losing star cornerback Patrick Surtain to a concussion, have the sharps hesitant to play the primetime under.

Broncos at Saints Betting Analysis

After talking up a proper coming-out party for Rattler at home, we have to address the defensive juggernaut Denver Broncos. This team did fall behind big early on to the Chargers, but LA looked as healthy as they've been all season coming off the bye week. Denver was down 23-0 in the 4th quarter and still made it a one-score game. They never quit, and it makes sense. Sean Payton wouldn't let his team check out early. It doesn't appear they drafted a quarterback who looks for the door, either. This offense is improving from week to week, the defense is elite, and they have one of the best coaches in the NFL in Payton.

From a Hall of Fame coach to the former betting favorite to be the first NFL head coach fired before Robert Salah's surprising sayonara. Dennis Allen's team will be at a massive head coaching disadvantage this week. If he can't beat the Broncos at home, it'll be five consecutive losses for the Saints, and Allen may get the door, whether he's looking for it or not.

What does that mean for us? Well, desperation is good…for a team. I don't like betting on desperate coaches. More often than not, by that point, the leaders of the locker room are on the other side. They may be willing to take one step back in order to make several forward. This game is essentially a pick'em, but I don't want any part of the Saints as betting favorites...until, of course, their first game after they fire Allen.

Broncos at Saints Betting Pick

Losing Surtain hurts Denver. However, this is an elite unit, and I expect them to terrorize the rookie. Rattler will be without Chris Olave, his WR1. Wideout Rashid Shaheed has been breaking out for the Saints, but he struggled in the No. 1 position, as the Bucs held him to just a single reception on seven targets.

One team has a legendary head coach. The other team has a coach in over his head. Bet the Broncos to effectively run the ball on the Saints, wear down the front, and eventually attack over the top with the play-action pass.

Pick: Broncos Moneyine (+100)

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