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Thursday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

by Mike Allen - 12/17/2024

Thursday Night Football picks Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert

Welcome to Week 16 of the 2024 NFL Season. Kicking us off on Thursday Night Football is a divisional matchup in Los Angeles between the Chargers and Denver Broncos. LA comes into this one reeling after their worst loss of the season on Sunday. Baker Mayfield lit up the Bolts for 10.7 yards a pass and four touchdowns. Justin Herbert came into the game banged up and ended up leaving before the end, albeit after the game was far out of reach.

Herbert is expected to play this week, but he hasn't exactly been the most effective quarterback when dealing with an injury. Analysts focus on his arm, as they should, because the kid has a cannon, but his ability to scramble and make plays with his long legs makes him elite.

On the other side, the Denver Broncos also played one of their worst games of the year just a few days ago. However, you wouldn't know from the box score. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix had his first three-interception game of his career, but hey, he led the team in rushing with 23 yards on eight carries.

Unless it was from someone like Taysom Hill, it's never a good sign if your quarterback leads the team in rushing yardage. Moving the ball on the ground wasn't any easier for the Chargers on Sunday, as they had a grand total of 32 yards running the ball as a team!

This is a divisional game on a short week. These are two defensive powerhouses. One quarterback is banged up. I'm leaning towards the under now, but let's dig in.

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Denver Broncos (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

The betting odds for the first matchup back in mid-October between these two closed at (-3) for LA before the Bolts beat the breaks off of them. Jim Harbaugh’s squad was up 23-0 in the 4th quarter before the Broncos galloped through garbage time for a 23-16 final.

If we see any future movement to this line, I believe it'll trend in Denver's direction. The Vegas sportsbooks have it at 2.5, and I've seen some offshore books post a (-2.5) for LA.

Moneyline Odds

Broncos: +125

Chargers: -145

Whether the point spread stays at (-3) or drops to (-2.5) for LA, I would still take them on the moneyline if that's your side. If Denver is your pick, don't wait. It looks like this line will stay below 3.

Point Total: 42

We mentioned a potential prediction for the under already. I love to start the season betting unders. However, at this point, offenses have begun to click. I don’t see the line going very far. We were at 42.5 yesterday, but the key number 41 ship has yet to sail.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

I’m not sure how the Denver Broncos keep winning these games with a rookie quarterback, but they do. They needed a miracle to beat the Browns and cover the spread a couple of weeks ago. If it weren’t for a blocked field goal, they would have a win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Denver got lucky last week, though.

I saw a lot of pros picking the Colts in that game. And for a while, it appeared to be the right side. You can't bet on bad teams, which Indy isn't. However, you can't bet on bad quarterbacks unless the spot is perfect.

I don't like to bet on banged-up teams either, especially in a short week. LA is that side. It isn't just Herbert. Remember, RB1 J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve, and they're hobbled at wide receiver and tight end, which are their two shallowest positions.

The defense is even more injured. LA couldn’t stop the run or the pass on Sunday for the first time this year. I know Mayfield can cook as well as anyone, but how much can that Chargers defense improve their health over 3 days?

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick

I'm taking the Denver Broncos. They're 6-1 against the spread on the road this year. The second divisional game rarely plays out like the first.

This pick is about the injury discrepancy between the two teams on a short week. Harbaugh is matched on the other sideline by Sean Peyton. Both head coaches deserve a ton of praise, but let's take Denver and the points on Thursday Night Football.

Pick: Denver Broncos (+3)

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