Thursday Night Football Picks: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

by Mike Allen - 11/5/2024

Thursday Night Football picks for Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Joe Burrow

We are officially at the halfway mark of the season, and this is about where we thought we would be. The only difference is that both teams are better than their respective records.

Both offenses have obliterated opposing defenses from the start of the season. It’s the Ravens, though, that have more balance on that side of the ball.

The free agent signing of Derrick Henry was obviously a splendid idea for everyone not named Jerry Jones. Lamar Jackson is loving it, as the pressure to carry the offense is now shared with his new teammate.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

We opened at (-6.5). There hasn’t been a ton of money coming in yet on the spread. The total, on the other hand, is a different story.

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Moneyline Odds

Bengals: +220

Ravens: -270

Point Total: 53

Wow, so what were the sportsbooks thinking when they opened the point total of this game at 48.5? Unless they were setting a trap, I don't know. It's only Tuesday morning, and the line has already been bet up to 53. Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has kept the playing statuses of both wide receiver Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown Jr. a secret.

It's possible the Bengals kept Higgins out last week to get him as much recovery as possible ahead of this do-or-die division matchup. Either way, he wasn't missed too much. Burrow had his sixth game this year with a triple-digit QB Rating, and the team won comfortably, albeit against the Raiders.

These two teams played once already this season, and 76 of the 79 total points were scored in regulation.

Bengals at Ravens Betting Analysis

Has either offense slowed down? I understand the Ravens' defense looked a lot better against the Broncos, but Bo Nix isn't the type of guy to beat you deep, and that's the Ravens' weakness. Nix had his chances over the top in that game, but he overshot his man more often than not.

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson may have had a career Sunday with four sacks, but it came against not one but two Raiders quarterbacks. This is a great sign, but there's a good reason the Bengals are shopping for help at the other defensive end position as we speak.

Cincy doesn't normally make trades during the season. However, earlier this morning, they brought in former Virginia Tech Hokie and Chicago Bear running back Khalil Herbert to back up Chase Brown after they lost Zach Moss to injury. The running game has been dreadful for Cincy this season, as they rank in the bottom five in the league in just about every major statistic. Think about how effective and dangerous their passing game is.

Maybe if they can score a little bit slower, kinda like the Chiefs' near 9-minute drive in the 4th quarter on Monday, the Bengals defense would get a chance to catch its breath. It will be interesting to see how this new 1-2 punch out of the backfield works. Herbert has averaged close to 5 yards a carry in his career. He has a low sense of gravity, and his quicker cuts might help him squirt through the holes.

Said holes aren’t likely to be much, though, against the #1 rush defense in the league. Over the previous three games, however, the Bengals have allowed 3.7 yards per carry, while the Ravens have given up 3.9.

Going back to the point total, I suppose the books see the weaker of the two defenses playing much better, and this is a Thursday game as well. Betting the over means giving up 4.5 points of expected value. I won’t be insulted if you do, but I like the Bengals with the points here. The “last three games” stats stand out to me, and Cincy simply needs this win more than Baltimore.

Bengals at Ravens Betting Pick

The 6 points are too many, especially with how they match up. The Ravens’ corners and safeties are burned over the top every week. It just hasn’t mattered too much because of what they’re able to do on offense.

I'll take the divisional dog of more than a field goal here. Their QB is playing better than anyone else in the league at his position. Time of possession will be key for this game. Hopefully, the Bengals' offense can quickly learn to be as methodical as they've been successful.

Pick: Bengals (+6)

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Thursday Night Football Picks: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

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