Super Bowl Props: Head-to-Head Matchup Predictions

by Mike Allen - 2/7/2024

Super Bowl props head-to-head matchup picks Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

We are just days away from the big game, Super Bowl LVIII from Las Vegas. I'm sure you are as excited as most of the country. Even if you aren't a big fan of the NFL, the parties are always fun.

Over the past several years, as you know, the popularity of sports betting has skyrocketed and picks up speed every year. This Sunday is the biggest sports betting day of the year, and online sportsbooks have come with some serious firepower.

I won't sit here and list all the various betting opportunities you have at your fingertips. I will, however, give you some of the most fun and potentially profitable prop bets available.

A simple player prop isn’t enough. We need player matchup bets as well. One player from the Kansas City Chiefs vs another from the San Francisco 49ers will go head-to-head with a spread, moneyline, and total available to bet.

Oh, and we may even have two players from the same team matched up!

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Total Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes (-15.5) vs Brock Purdy (+15.5)

Moneyline

Mahomes: -140

Purdy: +125

Combined Yards

Over 501.5 (-110)

Under 501.5 (-110)

Patrick Mahomes is the favorite here for a reason, but the torn pectoral muscle of his best pass protector, Joe Thuney, is devastating. I don’t know if this will lead to more sacks because the man is a ninja, but I can see him scampering for a few first downs in this one.

Brock Purdy has more weapons, and his coach is an offensive genius. Hopefully, Kyle Shanahan didn't have to show too many of his best tricks as his team struggled through the postseason.

The Niners were #1 in the NFL in yards per pass, but here comes the Chiefs' defense, who were 2nd in the NFL in yards per pass allowed. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs' offense ranked 16th and San Francisco 5th.

If the 49ers pull ahead, we may lose this one, but I will take the extra yardage for the emerging superstar.

Pick: Purdy (+15.5)

Total Passing TDs

Patrick Mahomes (-0.5) vs Brock Purdy (+0.5)

Moneyline

Mahomes: -120

Purdy: +100

Combined Touchdowns

Over 3.5 (+115)

Under 3.5 (-135)

I was going to look at taking Purdy with the (+0.5) touchdowns, but I like the line for combined touchdowns even more.

Both teams have outstanding tight ends, and the 49ers have Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel as receiving threats in goalline situations.

Let’s go over the 3.5 for both of these stars.

Pick: Combined Touchdowns Over 3.5 (+115)

Total Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey (-77.5) vs Brock Purdy (+77.5)

Moneyline

McCaffrey: -7000

Brock Purdy: +2800

Combined Rushing Yards

Over 107.5 (-110)

Under 107.5 (-110)

I told you guys. Here is your same team player matchup prop for the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs saw how well Brock Purdy can improvise when he gets outside of the pocket. He isn’t quite Mahomes, but the man has some magic.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is a defensive mastermind and a better game planner. I expect him to have his defense focusing on making Purdy beat them from the pocket.

Now, to McCaffrey vs the Chiefs defense. Well, he is the best back in the league and KC ranked 25th against the run during the regular season. I can see him rushing for over 100 yards, while Purdy may take some sacks.

The Chiefs led the NFL this season sacking the quarterback over 8.5% of the time.

Pick: McCaffrey (-77.5)

Total Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce (-22.5) vs George Kittle (+22.5)

Moneyline

Kelce: -230

Kittle: +190

Combined Receiving Yards

Over 126.5 (-110)

Under 126.5 (-110)

This is one of the best Super Bowl tight end matchups in recent memory. The only difference between Travis Kelce and George Kittle is that the former has had one of the GOATs passing to him over the years, while the latter is now on the 6th quarterback of his career.

The worry here taking the yardage with Kittle is that his team simply has so many other incredible options to throw to.

Kittle just hasn't been getting the targets lately to bet on him. I believe Kelce will get probably double the targets, and with the ball and chain in the booth, he will hold onto that pigskin like it's a newborn baby.

Pick: Kelce (-22.5)

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Super Bowl Props: Head-to-Head Matchup Predictions

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